Page 11 - 2023 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
P. 11
ome economy with little in the way of a social 祝好！
safety net—is headed for a crisis. By 2035, 400
million people—or over a third of China’s current
population—are projected to be above the age of
60, which would put an unprecedented strain on
the country’s infrastructure and resources for its
elderly. That's caused domestic demographers
to lament that China will get old before it gets
rich, slowing the economy as revenues drop
and government debt increases due to soaring
health and welfare costs. Long-term, UN experts
see China's population shrinking by 109 million
by 2050, more than triple the decline of their
previous forecast in 2019.
China’s leaders will continue to confront
mounting domestic social, economic, and
public health-related stresses in 2023. If past is
prologue, it is reasonable to expect China’s leaders
will respond by seeking to calm their external
environment to concentrate on challenges at
home. To help counter scrutiny of their domestic
governance record, they will want to present an
image to their people of being afforded dignity
and respect abroad. Nowhere will such symbolism
matter more than in the U.S.-China context. How
China’s leaders are seen to be managing relations
with the United States often is a factor in how their
performance is perceived at home. Even as the
broadly competitive framework of the US-China
relationship is unlikely to change, opportunities may
emerge. For the United States to advance discrete
affirmative priorities with China in the year ahead,
the United States and China are locked into a long-
term competition to determine which governance
model can best solve global problems and improve
the lives of its citizens. Performance will drive
perceptions of power. America is strongest when it
is improving its condition at home and galvanizing
global efforts to tackle common challenges, not
when it is consumed by competition with an
ambitious but constrained power.
With best regards,
Dr. Harley Seyedin 哈利•赛亚丁博士
Winner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award
(together with Elon Musk, Durreen Shahnaz and Murad 经济奖评审委员会颁发2017年奥斯陆商业促和平奖获奖者
Al-Katib) – Awarded by an Award Committee of Nobel
Laureates in Peace and Economics （同期获奖者包括伊隆•马斯克, Durreen Shahnaz
Among few individuals in 231 years to be awarded the
Thomas Jefferson initiated Peace Through Commerce 与 Murad Al-Katib）
Medal by the US Government
Visiting Scholar, Jinan University “商业促进和平奖”奖章得主
President, Allelon Energy Partners
President, American Chamber of Commerce in South China 该奖章由美国第一任国务卿托马斯•杰斐逊于1790年创设
在创设至今的231年里，全球仅有少数人荣获该奖章。
暨南大学访问学者
阿来龙能源总裁
华南美国商会会长
11
safety net—is headed for a crisis. By 2035, 400
million people—or over a third of China’s current
population—are projected to be above the age of
60, which would put an unprecedented strain on
the country’s infrastructure and resources for its
elderly. That's caused domestic demographers
to lament that China will get old before it gets
rich, slowing the economy as revenues drop
and government debt increases due to soaring
health and welfare costs. Long-term, UN experts
see China's population shrinking by 109 million
by 2050, more than triple the decline of their
previous forecast in 2019.
China’s leaders will continue to confront
mounting domestic social, economic, and
public health-related stresses in 2023. If past is
prologue, it is reasonable to expect China’s leaders
will respond by seeking to calm their external
environment to concentrate on challenges at
home. To help counter scrutiny of their domestic
governance record, they will want to present an
image to their people of being afforded dignity
and respect abroad. Nowhere will such symbolism
matter more than in the U.S.-China context. How
China’s leaders are seen to be managing relations
with the United States often is a factor in how their
performance is perceived at home. Even as the
broadly competitive framework of the US-China
relationship is unlikely to change, opportunities may
emerge. For the United States to advance discrete
affirmative priorities with China in the year ahead,
the United States and China are locked into a long-
term competition to determine which governance
model can best solve global problems and improve
the lives of its citizens. Performance will drive
perceptions of power. America is strongest when it
is improving its condition at home and galvanizing
global efforts to tackle common challenges, not
when it is consumed by competition with an
ambitious but constrained power.
With best regards,
Dr. Harley Seyedin 哈利•赛亚丁博士
Winner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award
(together with Elon Musk, Durreen Shahnaz and Murad 经济奖评审委员会颁发2017年奥斯陆商业促和平奖获奖者
Al-Katib) – Awarded by an Award Committee of Nobel
Laureates in Peace and Economics （同期获奖者包括伊隆•马斯克, Durreen Shahnaz
Among few individuals in 231 years to be awarded the
Thomas Jefferson initiated Peace Through Commerce 与 Murad Al-Katib）
Medal by the US Government
Visiting Scholar, Jinan University “商业促进和平奖”奖章得主
President, Allelon Energy Partners
President, American Chamber of Commerce in South China 该奖章由美国第一任国务卿托马斯•杰斐逊于1790年创设
在创设至今的231年里，全球仅有少数人荣获该奖章。
暨南大学访问学者
阿来龙能源总裁
华南美国商会会长
11
