Page 8 - 2023 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
P. 8
President’s Message 会长致辞
Dear Members, 尊敬的会员：
China’s economy is set to 随着中国优化调整疫情防控措施，人口流动与商
rebound in 2023 as mobility and activity pick 业活动逐步重启，全国经济将于2023年迎来回升，为
up after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, 全球经济复苏注入动力。中国2023年经济增速预计将
providing a boost to the global economy. The 从2022年的3%提升至5.2%。对中国和世界而言，这
economy will expand 5.2 percent this year versus 是一个好消息。预计2023年中国经济将对全球经济增
roughly 3 percent last year. That’s good news for 长的贡献将达到四分之一。即便如此，中国经济发展
China and the world as the Chinese economy is 仍面临着重大挑战。房地产业收缩将继续进一步拖累
now expected to contribute a quarter of global 经济，新冠病毒变种带来的不确定性也仍旧存在。长
growth this year. Even so, China still faces 期看来，人口衰退和生产力增长放缓都将成为经济增
significant economic challenges. The contraction 长的阻力。
in real estate remains a major headwind, and
there is still some uncertainty around the 三年来，中国坚持实施“动态清零”政策，随着新
evolution of the virus. Longer-term, headwinds 形势和新变化的出现，中国优化调整疫情防控相关措
to growth include a shrinking population and 施，但这并非意味病毒已被根除或消灭。2023年乃至
slowing productivity growth. 未来，中国乃至全球人民都将继续与新冠病毒共存。然
而，就像所有其他地方一样，疫情会来袭，也会退去。一
After three years of implementing its “zero- 些大城市新冠感染病例已经达峰，但是全国各地实现
COVID” strategy, China has dropped all COVID 感染达峰的时间不尽相同。
restrictions, but the virus is not something that
will be eradicated or eliminated. People in China— 俄乌冲突对经济带来多重影响，对全球经济造成
and around the world—are going to be dealing 了一次沉重打击。乌克兰损失惨重，而俄乌冲突的影响
with COVID in 2023 and into the future. Like 远不止于乌克兰境内。除了俄乌冲突带来的冲击和人
everywhere else, COVID will come and go. We're 道主义危机之外，全球经济整体仍将面临增长放缓和
already seeing indications that cases may have 通胀快速上升造成的影响。这些影响主要体现在三方
peaked in major cities, but that's going to happen 面。第一，食品、能源等大宗商品价格高涨，进一步推高
at different times across the country. 通胀，从而侵蚀商业收益、压抑需求。第二，深陷俄乌冲
突的国家及周边国家，正面临贸易、供应链和资金链扰
The economic fallout from Russia’s invasion 乱和大规模难民潮。第三，商业信心减弱，投资不确定
of Ukraine is another massive setback to the 性上升，拖累资产价格，导致财政状况收紧，并可能刺
global economy. The toll on Ukraine is immense, 激资本撤出新兴市场。俄乌均为主要大宗商品供应国，
but the impact stretches far beyond Ukraine’s 双方冲突令全球大宗商品价格暴涨，尤其是石油和天
borders. Beyond the suffering and humanitarian 然气。食品成本飙升，其中，俄乌出口量占全球出口量
crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entire 30%之多的小麦，价格已涨破纪录。除了全球溢出效
global economy continues to feel the effects of 应，存在直接贸易、旅游和财政风险的国家也将感受到
slower growth and faster inflation. Impacts are
flowing through three main channels. One, higher
prices for commodities like food and energy are
pushing up inflation further, in turn eroding
the value of incomes and weighing on demand.
Two, those most involved including neighboring
8
Dear Members, 尊敬的会员：
China’s economy is set to 随着中国优化调整疫情防控措施，人口流动与商
rebound in 2023 as mobility and activity pick 业活动逐步重启，全国经济将于2023年迎来回升，为
up after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, 全球经济复苏注入动力。中国2023年经济增速预计将
providing a boost to the global economy. The 从2022年的3%提升至5.2%。对中国和世界而言，这
economy will expand 5.2 percent this year versus 是一个好消息。预计2023年中国经济将对全球经济增
roughly 3 percent last year. That’s good news for 长的贡献将达到四分之一。即便如此，中国经济发展
China and the world as the Chinese economy is 仍面临着重大挑战。房地产业收缩将继续进一步拖累
now expected to contribute a quarter of global 经济，新冠病毒变种带来的不确定性也仍旧存在。长
growth this year. Even so, China still faces 期看来，人口衰退和生产力增长放缓都将成为经济增
significant economic challenges. The contraction 长的阻力。
in real estate remains a major headwind, and
there is still some uncertainty around the 三年来，中国坚持实施“动态清零”政策，随着新
evolution of the virus. Longer-term, headwinds 形势和新变化的出现，中国优化调整疫情防控相关措
to growth include a shrinking population and 施，但这并非意味病毒已被根除或消灭。2023年乃至
slowing productivity growth. 未来，中国乃至全球人民都将继续与新冠病毒共存。然
而，就像所有其他地方一样，疫情会来袭，也会退去。一
After three years of implementing its “zero- 些大城市新冠感染病例已经达峰，但是全国各地实现
COVID” strategy, China has dropped all COVID 感染达峰的时间不尽相同。
restrictions, but the virus is not something that
will be eradicated or eliminated. People in China— 俄乌冲突对经济带来多重影响，对全球经济造成
and around the world—are going to be dealing 了一次沉重打击。乌克兰损失惨重，而俄乌冲突的影响
with COVID in 2023 and into the future. Like 远不止于乌克兰境内。除了俄乌冲突带来的冲击和人
everywhere else, COVID will come and go. We're 道主义危机之外，全球经济整体仍将面临增长放缓和
already seeing indications that cases may have 通胀快速上升造成的影响。这些影响主要体现在三方
peaked in major cities, but that's going to happen 面。第一，食品、能源等大宗商品价格高涨，进一步推高
at different times across the country. 通胀，从而侵蚀商业收益、压抑需求。第二，深陷俄乌冲
突的国家及周边国家，正面临贸易、供应链和资金链扰
The economic fallout from Russia’s invasion 乱和大规模难民潮。第三，商业信心减弱，投资不确定
of Ukraine is another massive setback to the 性上升，拖累资产价格，导致财政状况收紧，并可能刺
global economy. The toll on Ukraine is immense, 激资本撤出新兴市场。俄乌均为主要大宗商品供应国，
but the impact stretches far beyond Ukraine’s 双方冲突令全球大宗商品价格暴涨，尤其是石油和天
borders. Beyond the suffering and humanitarian 然气。食品成本飙升，其中，俄乌出口量占全球出口量
crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entire 30%之多的小麦，价格已涨破纪录。除了全球溢出效
global economy continues to feel the effects of 应，存在直接贸易、旅游和财政风险的国家也将感受到
slower growth and faster inflation. Impacts are
flowing through three main channels. One, higher
prices for commodities like food and energy are
pushing up inflation further, in turn eroding
the value of incomes and weighing on demand.
Two, those most involved including neighboring
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