Page 10 - 2023 Special Report on the State of Business in South China

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concerning how our members view the future of ?惰???涓??缁??浠??涓寸?涓ュ郴???????诲???勾
foreign businesses in China. ?达?涓??涓??宕?捣锛??涓轰?涓??宸ュ????娴?己?姐??腑??
浠??绌蜂??藉?涓??绗??澶х?娴??锛?汉浠??????藉????
China?? zero tolerance policy ended a few ?村?璧风????浜哄?琛伴???拌薄?????澶?汉瀵垮?寤堕?浜??
days after we closed our surveys. Therefore, our 浜哄??虹????????汉?ｈ“??瓒??寮??浜????咖锛???ㄤ汉
study and research represent the actual views of ?ｅ?灏??瀵规??ョ?娴???夸骇??奖???????勾?ワ?涓??浜?
business and are not tainted by the immediate ?ｉ?娆″??颁?????2022骞达?涓??浜哄?姝讳骸浜烘?瓒????
impact of the policy change. We believe the impact ??汉?帮???????涓洪?瑕??绱??涓??妤???ㄥ???????
of this policy change on business decisions will ???浣?汉?颁?澶??纭???汉?ｈ?妯＄缉??凡缁??涓轰?涓?涓?
not be realized until second half of 2023. At that ????挎???画????匡?棰??????板勾浜哄??伴?灏??涓?
time, we plan on surveying the market for any 姝ョ缉?????浠や汉??咖??苟??汉?ｆ????浣????????浜?
changes in business plans. There were several ?ｈ???????х??拌薄锛?互??汉?ｇ???揩??????绀句?
interesting observations this year such as 3% 缁??甯?????????腑?芥??堕???澶у?锛???ㄥ?瀵????骇
more companies (75%) plan to reinvest in China 涓??妯″ぇ锛?腑浜ч?绾ф?澶э?绀句?淇??浣?郴涓???????瀹?
in 2023, including 68% American companies. 琛ㄧず锛??浜哄?琛伴??瓒????画锛?腑?藉???复?辨????2035
Companies are cautious about large investment 骞达?涓??60宀??浠ヤ???勾浜哄??婚?灏????4浜夸汉锛??灏?
in 2023. The number of companies that have each 瓒??涓???版?浜哄???????涓?锛??灏????????虹?璁?
over US$250 million budgeted for re-investment ?藉?璧??甯????????????????姝わ?涓?浜?汉?ｅ?瀹跺?
projects in 2023 declines substantially to a five- ?哄??癸?璁や负涓??灏?????瀵????????昏????荤?寮????
year new low of 4%. Ultimately, China?? economy ?????????ヤ?????垮??哄?澧??灏??瀵艰?缁????
will bottom out and gradually recover from last 缂????????ワ???????涓??棰??锛??2050骞达?涓??浜?
year?? negative impacts in the first quarter of 2023 ?ｅ????1.09浜匡?涓烘???2019骞撮?娴??涓??????
due to a lower number of actual reinvestments
in high-volume projects in 2022. But its economy 2023骞达??藉?绀句????娴?????????归??????
will pick up quickly in the next three quarters, 灏??????????寰???负搴??????ワ?涓??灏?Н???姹??
serving as a major global growth engine, and 瀹??澶?????锛?????瀵瑰?????????姝ゅ??讹??ㄤ?杩?
remain stable in 2024. It is our opinion that many ?ㄧ???????绋?腑锛?腑?藉?杩??姝ュ??拌?璐ｄ换澶у???
companies will adjust their investment budgets ?介?褰㈣薄???褰??涓???崇郴??????锛???惧?灏や负??
by mid-2023 and reinstate many of the larger 瑕???腑?芥?搴??浣????ソ涓???崇郴锛??寰?涔???ㄨ??藉?
projects which have been mothballed due to the 娌荤????绉???般???浣垮????涓??绔???崇郴涓?お???
inability to bring their expatriate personnel into 浼?????澶у????浣??浼?????浼??杩????????藉?娉?
China during the zero-Covid period. 涓??峰??ㄥ?涓?腑?借??╋?灏?腑缇??绯绘??ラ????绔??
?板?锛?互??????娌荤?妯″??芥?濂藉?瑙ｅ??ㄧ??????
China?? economy will still face many grim ???浜烘???椿姘村钩???寰疯??ㄤ汉蹇?????藉?褰??瑙??瑙?
challenges. Over the last four decades, China ?宠?韬??棰??绉???ㄥ??ㄧ????搴???卞????锛??搴??
emerged as an economic powerhouse and the 涓??灞????璋?????浜????杩???惰?韬?????澶???
world?? factory floor. The country?? evolution from
widespread poverty to the world?? second-largest
economy led to an increase in life expectancy that
contributed to the current population decline
?? more people were living longer while fewer
babies were being born. That trend has hastened
another worrying event: the day when China will
not have enough people of working age to fuel its
growth. For the first time in six decades, official
statistics revealed a dip in China?? population.
It?? not clear if COVID-19 played a significant role
in deaths exceeding births last year in China,
amid concerns that the government isn?? being
transparent about the virus?? true death toll. But
population contraction has long been in the cards
for China, and further decline is expected in the
years to come. What is concerning is not so much
the decline in sheer size, but rather rapid aging
and the socioeconomic challenges of adapting to
the rapid change in population structure. Experts
are alarmed that, if trends continue unabated,
China?? manufacturing, labor-focused, middle-

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