Page 10 - 2023 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
P. 10
concerning how our members view the future of 然而，中国经济仍面临着严峻挑战。过去四十年
foreign businesses in China. 间，中国不断崛起，成为了世界工厂和经济强国。中国
从一穷二白到世界第二大经济体，人们预期寿命增加，
China’s zero tolerance policy ended a few 却引起目前的人口衰退现象——更多人寿命延长了，
days after we closed our surveys. Therefore, our 人口出生率下降。人口衰退趋势引发了新担忧：劳动人
study and research represent the actual views of 口减少将对未来经济增长产生影响。六十年来，中国人
business and are not tainted by the immediate 口首次出现下降。2022年，中国人口死亡人数超过出
impact of the policy change. We believe the impact 生人数，疫情是否为重要因素尚不清楚，全国疫情病例
of this policy change on business decisions will 的具体人数不太明确。人口规模缩减已经成为了一个
not be realized until second half of 2023. At that 未来长期持续的趋势，预计未来数年人口数量将进一
time, we plan on surveying the market for any 步缩减。最令人担忧的并非人口数量整体下降，而是人
changes in business plans. There were several 口老龄化加剧的现象，以及人口结构快速变化给社会
interesting observations this year such as 3% 经济带来的挑战。中国是制造业大国，劳动力密集型产
more companies (75%) plan to reinvest in China 业规模大，中产阶级扩大，社会保障体系不完善。专家
in 2023, including 68% American companies. 表示，若人口衰退趋势持续，中国将面临危机。到2035
Companies are cautious about large investment 年，中国60岁及以上老年人口总量将突破4亿人，或将
in 2023. The number of companies that have each 超过中国现有人口的三分之一，这将给适老化基础设
over US$250 million budgeted for re-investment 施和资源带来前所未有的压力。因此，一些人口学家发
projects in 2023 declines substantially to a five- 出哀叹，认为中国将会“未富先老”，养老和医疗开支增
year new low of 4%. Ultimately, China’s economy 加造成的收入下降和政府债务增加将会导致经济放
will bottom out and gradually recover from last 缓。长期看来，据联合国专家预测，到2050年，中国人
year’s negative impacts in the first quarter of 2023 口将减少1.09亿，为此前2019年预测的三倍多。
due to a lower number of actual reinvestments
in high-volume projects in 2022. But its economy 2023年，国内社会、经济和公共卫生方面的压力
will pick up quickly in the next three quarters, 将不断上升。过往皆为序章。未来，中国将积极寻求安
serving as a major global growth engine, and 定的外部环境，聚焦应对国内挑战。与此同时，在促进
remain stable in 2024. It is our opinion that many 全球发展的过程中，中国将进一步展现负责任大国的
companies will adjust their investment budgets 国际形象。在当前中美关系的背景下，这显得尤为重
by mid-2023 and reinstate many of the larger 要。中国政府如何处理好中美关系，往往也是推进国家
projects which have been mothballed due to the 治理的一种体现。即使当前的中美竞合关系不太可能
inability to bring their expatriate personnel into 会发生重大变化，但机会也可能会应运而生。美国孤注
China during the zero-Covid period. 一掷地推动与中国脱钩，将中美关系推入长期化竞争
困境，以期证明其治理模式能更好地解决全球问题和
China’s economy will still face many grim 提升人民生活水平。功德自在人心。美国应当正视和解
challenges. Over the last four decades, China 决自身问题，积极推动全球合作应对共同挑战，不应与
emerged as an economic powerhouse and the 中国展开所谓的“竞争”，这对其自身毫无益处。
world’s factory floor. The country’s evolution from
widespread poverty to the world’s second-largest
economy led to an increase in life expectancy that
contributed to the current population decline
— more people were living longer while fewer
babies were being born. That trend has hastened
another worrying event: the day when China will
not have enough people of working age to fuel its
growth. For the first time in six decades, official
statistics revealed a dip in China’s population.
It’s not clear if COVID-19 played a significant role
in deaths exceeding births last year in China,
amid concerns that the government isn’t being
transparent about the virus’ true death toll. But
population contraction has long been in the cards
for China, and further decline is expected in the
years to come. What is concerning is not so much
the decline in sheer size, but rather rapid aging
and the socioeconomic challenges of adapting to
the rapid change in population structure. Experts
are alarmed that, if trends continue unabated,
China—a manufacturing, labor-focused, middle-
10
foreign businesses in China. 间，中国不断崛起，成为了世界工厂和经济强国。中国
从一穷二白到世界第二大经济体，人们预期寿命增加，
China’s zero tolerance policy ended a few 却引起目前的人口衰退现象——更多人寿命延长了，
days after we closed our surveys. Therefore, our 人口出生率下降。人口衰退趋势引发了新担忧：劳动人
study and research represent the actual views of 口减少将对未来经济增长产生影响。六十年来，中国人
business and are not tainted by the immediate 口首次出现下降。2022年，中国人口死亡人数超过出
impact of the policy change. We believe the impact 生人数，疫情是否为重要因素尚不清楚，全国疫情病例
of this policy change on business decisions will 的具体人数不太明确。人口规模缩减已经成为了一个
not be realized until second half of 2023. At that 未来长期持续的趋势，预计未来数年人口数量将进一
time, we plan on surveying the market for any 步缩减。最令人担忧的并非人口数量整体下降，而是人
changes in business plans. There were several 口老龄化加剧的现象，以及人口结构快速变化给社会
interesting observations this year such as 3% 经济带来的挑战。中国是制造业大国，劳动力密集型产
more companies (75%) plan to reinvest in China 业规模大，中产阶级扩大，社会保障体系不完善。专家
in 2023, including 68% American companies. 表示，若人口衰退趋势持续，中国将面临危机。到2035
Companies are cautious about large investment 年，中国60岁及以上老年人口总量将突破4亿人，或将
in 2023. The number of companies that have each 超过中国现有人口的三分之一，这将给适老化基础设
over US$250 million budgeted for re-investment 施和资源带来前所未有的压力。因此，一些人口学家发
projects in 2023 declines substantially to a five- 出哀叹，认为中国将会“未富先老”，养老和医疗开支增
year new low of 4%. Ultimately, China’s economy 加造成的收入下降和政府债务增加将会导致经济放
will bottom out and gradually recover from last 缓。长期看来，据联合国专家预测，到2050年，中国人
year’s negative impacts in the first quarter of 2023 口将减少1.09亿，为此前2019年预测的三倍多。
due to a lower number of actual reinvestments
in high-volume projects in 2022. But its economy 2023年，国内社会、经济和公共卫生方面的压力
will pick up quickly in the next three quarters, 将不断上升。过往皆为序章。未来，中国将积极寻求安
serving as a major global growth engine, and 定的外部环境，聚焦应对国内挑战。与此同时，在促进
remain stable in 2024. It is our opinion that many 全球发展的过程中，中国将进一步展现负责任大国的
companies will adjust their investment budgets 国际形象。在当前中美关系的背景下，这显得尤为重
by mid-2023 and reinstate many of the larger 要。中国政府如何处理好中美关系，往往也是推进国家
projects which have been mothballed due to the 治理的一种体现。即使当前的中美竞合关系不太可能
inability to bring their expatriate personnel into 会发生重大变化，但机会也可能会应运而生。美国孤注
China during the zero-Covid period. 一掷地推动与中国脱钩，将中美关系推入长期化竞争
困境，以期证明其治理模式能更好地解决全球问题和
China’s economy will still face many grim 提升人民生活水平。功德自在人心。美国应当正视和解
challenges. Over the last four decades, China 决自身问题，积极推动全球合作应对共同挑战，不应与
emerged as an economic powerhouse and the 中国展开所谓的“竞争”，这对其自身毫无益处。
world’s factory floor. The country’s evolution from
widespread poverty to the world’s second-largest
economy led to an increase in life expectancy that
contributed to the current population decline
— more people were living longer while fewer
babies were being born. That trend has hastened
another worrying event: the day when China will
not have enough people of working age to fuel its
growth. For the first time in six decades, official
statistics revealed a dip in China’s population.
It’s not clear if COVID-19 played a significant role
in deaths exceeding births last year in China,
amid concerns that the government isn’t being
transparent about the virus’ true death toll. But
population contraction has long been in the cards
for China, and further decline is expected in the
years to come. What is concerning is not so much
the decline in sheer size, but rather rapid aging
and the socioeconomic challenges of adapting to
the rapid change in population structure. Experts
are alarmed that, if trends continue unabated,
China—a manufacturing, labor-focused, middle-
10
