Page 9 - 2023 Special Report on the State of Business in South China

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nomies in particular are grappling with 棰????????璧??娌硅??ｇ?缁??浣???虹?璐㈡?璧ゅ???
disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances 璐告???樊?╁ぇ锛???????涓??锛???腑涓????床???浜?富
as well as an historic surge in refugee flows. 瑕???ｅ????????撮?????ｄ环?笺??
And three, reduced business confidence and
higher investor uncertainty weighs on asset 淇???茬????杩??姝ュ??у?杈惧??恒????村??哄?
prices, tightening financial conditions and ???涓??瀹朵??寸????????村箍娉?????涓???ㄧ?缁?
potentially spurring capital outflows from 娴???戒??????负涓???????缂??娌婚??⑩???瀹?滑瀹??
emerging markets. Russia and Ukraine are major 涓????????????法澧??浠??绯诲??ㄥ?璐у????绉??
commodities producers, and disruptions have ???у????杩??75骞存?瑙???介??崇郴???娴??绯荤?
caused global prices to soar, especially for oil 瑙??浣?郴甯??浜?弗??????杩???板?骞存?????????
and natural gas. Food costs have jumped, with ??????涓?绡???『?╄В?充?涔??绐???㈠???钩绉╁?锛??
wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia make up 瀵瑰????娴???????????寮??浣??姝や?????????
30 percent of global exports, reaching a record. 搴??褰??????芥??ㄧ?娴???版?寮哄???画????????
Beyond global spillovers, countries with direct 涔??绐?????褰卞?????ㄨ?澶?勾???涓?????浜轰滑
trade, tourism, and financial exposures will feel ???娉??浣??浠?凡缁???扮?涓?涓???句俊?锋?锛??绐??
additional pressures. Economies reliant on oil ?跺??寸??抽?澶у????????存定灏?娇寰??浜??瀹剁?
imports will see wider fiscal and trade deficits and ?崇?????惧????????????????娴??澶???村?
more inflation pressure, though some exporters ?板井濡?钩琛°??
such as those in the Middle East and Africa may
benefit from higher prices. 2022骞达??充娇?ㄦ?缇??????ｉ?姹??寮便??????
????ф??戒弗?肩????涓??涓??璐告?椤哄樊澧??8776浜?
The war in Ukraine may contribute to the 缇??锛?????绾????????????ユ?璧?揪??1891.3浜跨?
dangerous divergence between advanced and ??????澧??8%???澶?????缁??璋??2023骞翠腑?界?
emerging market and developing economies. 娴???块?????介?璐у??洪?缁??灏?腑?界?娴???跨?棰?
More broadly, it risks fragmenting the global ???4.4%涓????5.2%锛?????琛???翠负4.5%,楂??灏?
economy into geopolitical blocs with distinct ??4.5%涓????5.2%锛???瑰＋涓瑰??????5.2%涓????
technology standards, cross-border payment 5.4%锛??涓????5.7%???浠????2023?瑰??ュ?????跺?
systems, and reserve currencies. Such a tectonic ?????????瀵瑰????璧??涓???ョ??????
shift represents the most serious challenge
to the rules-based system that has governed ?? 浠? 瀹? ?? 璋? ?? ?? ?? ?ワ?涓? ?? 瀹? 甯? 缁? ???? ?? ?? 娓?
international and economic relations for the last ?? ??? 绛? ??? 姝わ??? 浠? ?? 璋? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 浜? 浼? 涓? ?? ??
75 years, jeopardizing the gains made over the 瀹? ?? 娉??杩? 浜? ?? 娉? 娌? ?? ?? ?? ?? 绛? ?? ?? 甯? ?? ?? ?? ?? 褰?
past several decades. An end to the war and a just ?? ??? 浠? 璁? 涓? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? 绛? ?? ?? 澶? ?? ?? 瀵? ?? 涓? ?? 绛?
peace for Ukraine would be the most impactful ??奖?????2023骞翠???勾????剧?????讹???滑灏??
way to affect the economic outlook, but until this ?? ?? ?? 娆? 杩? 琛? 璋? ?ワ?浠? ?? 瀵? ?? 绛? ?? ?? ?? ?? 瀵? ?? 涓? 璁?
happens, governments should deploy measures ?? ?? ?? 浠? 浣? 褰? ?? ??? 骞? ?? 浠? 瑙? 瀵? ?? 浜? 涓? 浜? ?? 瓒? ?? ??
for a stronger and sustainable recovery. While 璞★?姣??锛?75%???璁夸?涓?????2023骞磋?琛?????
some effects may not fully come into focus for ?? 璧??璇? 姣? 渚? ?? 姣? 澧? ?? 3 %锛?? 涓? ?? ?? 6 8 % ?? 缇? 璧? 浼?
many years, there are already clear signs that 涓???2023骞达?浼??瀵瑰ぇ棰??璧??璋ㄦ???害??2023骞村?
the war and resulting jump in costs for essential ???绠?????棰??杩?2.5浜跨????浼??姣?????澶у?
commodities will make it harder for policymakers 涓????4%锛?负杩??骞存?浣???腑?界?娴??灏???卞?骞寸?
in some countries to strike the delicate balance ?板?锛?Е搴??寮癸?灏界?2022骞存?缁??瀹?ぇ棰???????
between containing inflation and supporting the 璧?」???浼??姣????????锛??2023骞翠?瀛ｅ害灏????
economic recovery from the pandemic. ?㈠????涓?釜瀛ｅ害锛?腑?界?娴??杩????澶??浣?负?ㄧ?澧?
?跨????寮??锛?2024骞村???画绋冲?澧?????浠??涓猴?璁?
China?? trade surplus swelled to a record 澶??涓????2023骞翠腑????存?璧??绠?????璁稿???弗
US$877.6 billion in 2022 despite weakening US ?奸?????藉??芥??存?娉?淳?ｅ?绫?汉????????缃?
and European demand and COVID-19 control ??ぇ瑙?ā椤圭???
measures; FDI into the Chinese mainland, in actual
use, expanded 8% year-on-year to US$189.13
billion. As for international organizations??
expectations for China?? economic growth in
2023, most revised China?? growth outlook higher
for 2023: IMF from 4.4% to 5.2%; World Bank:
4.5%; Goldman Sachs from 4.5% to 5.2%; Morgan
Stanley from 5.2% to 5.4% then to 5.7%. Our 2023
Special Report created a certain snapshot in time

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