Page 20 - 2022 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
P. 20
2 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
estimated 114.4 million people into extreme Russia, and Turkey have also begun raising
poverty, of which 57.8 million were women and monetary policy rates to head off upward price
girls. Job and income losses have been higher pressures (Xinhua, IMF Projects Global).
for women, as more women than men left the
workforce to meet family demands. Women's A year and a half after the onset of the
health and reproductive health suffered massive COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy was
blows, unintended pregnancies increased, poised to stage its most robust post-recession
motherhood was delayed, and education recovery in 80 years in 2021. But the rebound
disrupted, significantly undermining progress is expected to be uneven across countries, as
toward gender equality. Women also faced major economies look set to register strong
increased gender-based violence, and women growth even as many developing economies
entrepreneurs were disproportionately affected lag as they continue to grapple with COVID-19
by business closures, further widening gender and what is likely to be its long shadow. The
gaps in income and wealth. These severe and United States and China are each expected to
disproportionate impacts on women and girls call contribute about one quarter of global growth in
for more targeted policies and support measures, 2021. However, the recovery of many countries
not only to accelerate the recovery but also to is constrained by resurgences of COVID-19,
ensure that the recovery is inclusive and resilient uneven vaccination, and a partial withdrawal of
(Xinhua, UN Report). government economic support measures. In the
longer term, the outlook for emerging market and
In July 2021, the International Monetary Fund developing economies will likely be dampened
(IMF) maintained its global economic growth by the lasting legacies of the pandemic – erosion
forecast at 6% for 2021, with economic prospects of skills from lost work and schooling; a sharp
diverging further across countries since April's drop in investment; higher debt burdens; and
forecast. Factors that strengthen the economic greater financial vulnerabilities. Among low-
recovery include the restoration of supply chains income economies, where vaccination has lagged,
thanks to the wide use of vaccines, the release growth has been revised lower to 2.9%. Setting
of pent-up or pended consumption demand aside the contraction last in 2020, this would be
and simulative macroeconomic policies. It was the slowest pace of expansion in two decades.
becoming more obvious that the global economic The group’s output level in 2022 is projected to be
recovery continued, but with a widening gap 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic projections. Fragile
between advanced economies and many and conflict-affected low-income economies have
emerging market and developing economies. been the hardest hit by the pandemic, and per
By this time, close to 40% of the population capita income gains have been set back by at least
in advanced economies were fully vaccinated, a decade. Regionally, the recovery is expected
compared with 11% in emerging market to be strongest in East Asia and the Pacific,
economies, and a tiny fraction in low-income largely due to the strength of China’s recovery.
developing countries. Faster-than-expected In South Asia, recovery has been hampered by
vaccination rates and return to normalcy led serious renewed outbreaks of the virus in India
to upgrades, while lack of access to vaccines and Nepal. The Middle East and North Africa and
and renewed waves of COVID-19 cases in some Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to
countries, notably India, led to downgrades. post growth too shallow to offset the contraction
Divergences in policy support are a second source of 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery, while
of the deepening divide, as advanced economies helped by spillovers from the global recovery, is
continued to roll out sizable fiscal support with expected to remain fragile given the slow pace of
$4.6 trillion of announced pandemic-related vaccination and delays to major investments in
measures available in 2021 and beyond. On the infrastructure and the extractives sector. The June
other hand, in emerging market and developing 2021 forecast assumed that advanced economies
economies, most measures expired in 2020, and would achieve widespread vaccination of their
they are looking to rebuild fiscal buffers. Some populations and effectively contain the pandemic
emerging markets like Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, by the end of the year. Major emerging market
20
estimated 114.4 million people into extreme Russia, and Turkey have also begun raising
poverty, of which 57.8 million were women and monetary policy rates to head off upward price
girls. Job and income losses have been higher pressures (Xinhua, IMF Projects Global).
for women, as more women than men left the
workforce to meet family demands. Women's A year and a half after the onset of the
health and reproductive health suffered massive COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy was
blows, unintended pregnancies increased, poised to stage its most robust post-recession
motherhood was delayed, and education recovery in 80 years in 2021. But the rebound
disrupted, significantly undermining progress is expected to be uneven across countries, as
toward gender equality. Women also faced major economies look set to register strong
increased gender-based violence, and women growth even as many developing economies
entrepreneurs were disproportionately affected lag as they continue to grapple with COVID-19
by business closures, further widening gender and what is likely to be its long shadow. The
gaps in income and wealth. These severe and United States and China are each expected to
disproportionate impacts on women and girls call contribute about one quarter of global growth in
for more targeted policies and support measures, 2021. However, the recovery of many countries
not only to accelerate the recovery but also to is constrained by resurgences of COVID-19,
ensure that the recovery is inclusive and resilient uneven vaccination, and a partial withdrawal of
(Xinhua, UN Report). government economic support measures. In the
longer term, the outlook for emerging market and
In July 2021, the International Monetary Fund developing economies will likely be dampened
(IMF) maintained its global economic growth by the lasting legacies of the pandemic – erosion
forecast at 6% for 2021, with economic prospects of skills from lost work and schooling; a sharp
diverging further across countries since April's drop in investment; higher debt burdens; and
forecast. Factors that strengthen the economic greater financial vulnerabilities. Among low-
recovery include the restoration of supply chains income economies, where vaccination has lagged,
thanks to the wide use of vaccines, the release growth has been revised lower to 2.9%. Setting
of pent-up or pended consumption demand aside the contraction last in 2020, this would be
and simulative macroeconomic policies. It was the slowest pace of expansion in two decades.
becoming more obvious that the global economic The group’s output level in 2022 is projected to be
recovery continued, but with a widening gap 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic projections. Fragile
between advanced economies and many and conflict-affected low-income economies have
emerging market and developing economies. been the hardest hit by the pandemic, and per
By this time, close to 40% of the population capita income gains have been set back by at least
in advanced economies were fully vaccinated, a decade. Regionally, the recovery is expected
compared with 11% in emerging market to be strongest in East Asia and the Pacific,
economies, and a tiny fraction in low-income largely due to the strength of China’s recovery.
developing countries. Faster-than-expected In South Asia, recovery has been hampered by
vaccination rates and return to normalcy led serious renewed outbreaks of the virus in India
to upgrades, while lack of access to vaccines and Nepal. The Middle East and North Africa and
and renewed waves of COVID-19 cases in some Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to
countries, notably India, led to downgrades. post growth too shallow to offset the contraction
Divergences in policy support are a second source of 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery, while
of the deepening divide, as advanced economies helped by spillovers from the global recovery, is
continued to roll out sizable fiscal support with expected to remain fragile given the slow pace of
$4.6 trillion of announced pandemic-related vaccination and delays to major investments in
measures available in 2021 and beyond. On the infrastructure and the extractives sector. The June
other hand, in emerging market and developing 2021 forecast assumed that advanced economies
economies, most measures expired in 2020, and would achieve widespread vaccination of their
they are looking to rebuild fiscal buffers. Some populations and effectively contain the pandemic
emerging markets like Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, by the end of the year. Major emerging market
20
