Page 18 - 2022 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
P. 18
2 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
According to trade and development body growth persisted as even the most optimistic
UNCTAD, the 2020 global economy posted its projections for the bounce back of growth will not
sharpest annual drop in output since records cover the shortfall of income for several years.
began to be aggregated in the 1940s, “with no
region spared”. “Multilateralism has essentially A UN report in May 2021 revised up the world
lost its mojo”, said Richard Kozul-Wright, head of economic growth as a result of robust rebounds in
the Division on Globalization and Development China and the United States, but warned against
Strategies at UNCTAD, in a year that saw an fragilities in other economies in the context of
estimated 3.9% drop in global output – 0.4% better COVID-19. In its mid-year update of its World
than the forecast in mid-2020 - that was largely Economic Situation and Prospects 2021, which
owing to stronger performances in China and was released in January 2021, the UN Department
the US. The UN economist maintained that debt- of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) new
relief initiatives for poorer countries expected predictions were that the world economy would
by the G20 group of advanced economies grow 5.4% in 2021 instead of the 4.7% forecast
had been “extremely weak”, at a time when in January 2021. Following a sharp contraction of
developing countries feared losing much-needed 3.6 percent in 2020, the world economy returned
foreign direct investment. Efforts to organize a to positive territory as the world's two largest
fair and equitable Covid-19 vaccine rollout had economies -- China and the US -- was predicted
also showed serious weaknesses in the global to register impressive growth. DESA revised its
health architecture while the first year of the forecast for China from 7.2% to 8.2%; and for the
coronavirus crisis saw destruction of income on United States from 3.4% to 6.2% for 2021. While
an unprecedented scale, an estimated US$5.8 the global growth outlook had improved, surging
trillion, and with already vulnerable parts of the COVID-19 infections and inadequate vaccination
population bearing the brunt. In concrete terms, progress in many countries threatened a broad-
the coronavirus crisis triggered an effective loss based recovery of the world economy, warned
of 255 million full-time jobs worldwide. Although the report. The pandemic is far from over for a
the global economic recovery began in the third majority of countries. Daily new infections were
quarter as countries started to lift restrictions, higher in April 2021 than the number of new
a second wave of virus hit earlier than expected infections reported daily during the peak of the
in the final quarter of 2020 which dampened pandemic in December 2020. With the risks of a
the recovery, most notably in Western Europe. prolonged pandemic and insufficient fiscal space
Countering this downward pressure on growth to stimulate demand, the world's most vulnerable
were vaccine breakthroughs and improved countries are facing the prospect of a lost decade.
management of lockdown measures, both of The growth outlook in several countries in South
which offset COVID-19's overall economic impact. Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America and
Regionally, UNCTAD data indicates that East the Caribbean, remains fragile and uncertain. For
Asia and Latin America fared a little better than many developing countries, economic output is
expected – likely shored up by Brazilian growth only projected to return to pre-pandemic levels
- but Europe, India and South Africa did worse. in 2022 or 2023, according to the report. "Vaccine
Positive surprises were Brazil, Turkey and the inequity between countries and regions is posing
United States, thanks to large relief measures that a significant risk to an already uneven and fragile
acted as a shock-absorber for recession, while global recovery," said UN Chief Economist Elliott
rising commodity and asset prices spurred growth. Harris in a press release. "Timely and universal
The rebound in raw materials prices also benefited access to COVID-19 vaccinations will mean
several developing African economies, while the difference between ending the pandemic
the region as a whole saw lower-than-expected promptly and placing the world economy on
pressure on public health systems from COVID-19. the trajectory of a resilient recovery, or losing
Concerns nonetheless remained that more many more years of growth, development and
volatility may be emerging, particularly in markets opportunities." The report also highlighted the
of some agricultural commodities, with a threat to disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on women.
food security in several countries. Losses in global By mid-2021, the pandemic had pushed an
18
According to trade and development body growth persisted as even the most optimistic
UNCTAD, the 2020 global economy posted its projections for the bounce back of growth will not
sharpest annual drop in output since records cover the shortfall of income for several years.
began to be aggregated in the 1940s, “with no
region spared”. “Multilateralism has essentially A UN report in May 2021 revised up the world
lost its mojo”, said Richard Kozul-Wright, head of economic growth as a result of robust rebounds in
the Division on Globalization and Development China and the United States, but warned against
Strategies at UNCTAD, in a year that saw an fragilities in other economies in the context of
estimated 3.9% drop in global output – 0.4% better COVID-19. In its mid-year update of its World
than the forecast in mid-2020 - that was largely Economic Situation and Prospects 2021, which
owing to stronger performances in China and was released in January 2021, the UN Department
the US. The UN economist maintained that debt- of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) new
relief initiatives for poorer countries expected predictions were that the world economy would
by the G20 group of advanced economies grow 5.4% in 2021 instead of the 4.7% forecast
had been “extremely weak”, at a time when in January 2021. Following a sharp contraction of
developing countries feared losing much-needed 3.6 percent in 2020, the world economy returned
foreign direct investment. Efforts to organize a to positive territory as the world's two largest
fair and equitable Covid-19 vaccine rollout had economies -- China and the US -- was predicted
also showed serious weaknesses in the global to register impressive growth. DESA revised its
health architecture while the first year of the forecast for China from 7.2% to 8.2%; and for the
coronavirus crisis saw destruction of income on United States from 3.4% to 6.2% for 2021. While
an unprecedented scale, an estimated US$5.8 the global growth outlook had improved, surging
trillion, and with already vulnerable parts of the COVID-19 infections and inadequate vaccination
population bearing the brunt. In concrete terms, progress in many countries threatened a broad-
the coronavirus crisis triggered an effective loss based recovery of the world economy, warned
of 255 million full-time jobs worldwide. Although the report. The pandemic is far from over for a
the global economic recovery began in the third majority of countries. Daily new infections were
quarter as countries started to lift restrictions, higher in April 2021 than the number of new
a second wave of virus hit earlier than expected infections reported daily during the peak of the
in the final quarter of 2020 which dampened pandemic in December 2020. With the risks of a
the recovery, most notably in Western Europe. prolonged pandemic and insufficient fiscal space
Countering this downward pressure on growth to stimulate demand, the world's most vulnerable
were vaccine breakthroughs and improved countries are facing the prospect of a lost decade.
management of lockdown measures, both of The growth outlook in several countries in South
which offset COVID-19's overall economic impact. Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America and
Regionally, UNCTAD data indicates that East the Caribbean, remains fragile and uncertain. For
Asia and Latin America fared a little better than many developing countries, economic output is
expected – likely shored up by Brazilian growth only projected to return to pre-pandemic levels
- but Europe, India and South Africa did worse. in 2022 or 2023, according to the report. "Vaccine
Positive surprises were Brazil, Turkey and the inequity between countries and regions is posing
United States, thanks to large relief measures that a significant risk to an already uneven and fragile
acted as a shock-absorber for recession, while global recovery," said UN Chief Economist Elliott
rising commodity and asset prices spurred growth. Harris in a press release. "Timely and universal
The rebound in raw materials prices also benefited access to COVID-19 vaccinations will mean
several developing African economies, while the difference between ending the pandemic
the region as a whole saw lower-than-expected promptly and placing the world economy on
pressure on public health systems from COVID-19. the trajectory of a resilient recovery, or losing
Concerns nonetheless remained that more many more years of growth, development and
volatility may be emerging, particularly in markets opportunities." The report also highlighted the
of some agricultural commodities, with a threat to disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on women.
food security in several countries. Losses in global By mid-2021, the pandemic had pushed an
18
