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May 2016
towards appeasing progressives wary of served in Congress. More conventional against Clinton. From a pure demographic
Clinton’s ties to Wall Street, as well as candidates include John Kasich, who too standpoint, Trump will have to improve
Julian Castro, the former mayor of San has Congressional experience and who his numbers among minorities and
Antonio, who, at 40, is the current U.S. could help deliver Ohio, and Marco Rubio, women if he wants to have any realistic
Housing and Urban Development (HUD) still a U.S. Senator from the important shot at the White House. While non-white
Secretary. Castro would check two boxes swing state of Florida, just to name a few. voters comprised only 14 percent of the
for Clinton by improving her standing electorate in 1984, they are expected
among millenials in addition to Hispanics, Ultimately, it is simply too hard predict to make up nearly 30 percent this time
who represent a key constituency for how the election will unfold at this around. Second, the history and the
Democrats particularly in emerging swing point in time considering the general electoral map make Trump’s road to
states like Nevada and Colorado. More complexity of the race to date and just the White House even more difficult.
conventional options include Ohio Senator out unpredictable it has already been. Assuming that Trump and Clinton carry
Sherrod Brown and Virginia Senators Behind populist, outsider pitches that the states that have gone for their party’s
Tim Kaine and Mark Warner all of whom have channeled voter distrust with the nominees in the last six elections, Clinton
could potentially deliver key states in the country’s political and economic systems, starts with 242 electoral votes from 19
Electoral College fight. Trump and Sanders have garnered nearly states compared to 102 for Trump from
20 million votes combined (10,644,000 13 states. The problem is that current
For Trump, he is likely to go the DC for Trump and 9,200,000 for Sanders). polling indicates that Trump trails Clinton
insider route. He has already indicated Trump, who will be the first GOP nominee not only in important swing states like
as such stating, “I think I’ll probably go who has not served in elected office since Ohio and Florida but also in states Mitt
the political route, somebody that can Dwight Eisenhower, alone has already Romney won in 2012 like North Carolina,
help me with legislation and somebody surpassed Mitt Romney’s popular vote Arizona, Missouri and Utah. Losses by
that can help me get things passed and total from 2012 even having to face what Trump in these states, excluding Ohio,
somebody that’s been friends with the many consider to be the GOP’s most which is already in the Clinton column
senators and the congressman and all.” accomplished presidential field in a for purposes of this analysis, would give
This would suggest a candidate along generation. More impressively, he will Clinton the White House.
the lines of Tennessee Senator Bob easily pass the modern record of 10.8
Corker, a southerner with experience in million votes won by George W. Bush in
foreign affairs and banking or the more 2000 with nine states yet to vote. What
polarizing U.S. Senator from Alabama, can be drawn from this is that general
Jeff Sessions, who currently serves as voter dissatisfaction with Washington
Trump’s foreign policy advisor. However, could very well push a controversial
another important part of the equation for candidate in Trump into the White House
Trump is that his campaign must improve come November – a fact supported by
polling numbers among minorities and his claiming the GOP nomination in
women if Trump is even to have a shot the first place. He will, however, need
at being elected president. Possibilities to garner support from Democrats and
include former Alaska Governor Sarah independents just as he has done in
Palin, a Tea Party favorite who backed the primaries; however, recent polling
Trump early in the primary process, South shows that just 13 percent of Democratic-
Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, an Indian leaning voters who support Sanders
American who despite speaking out have a favorable view of the outspoken
against Trump remains a viable candidate, billionaire.
New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez,
a Mexican-American, and Oklahoma All this is not to say that Trump does not
Governor Mary Fallin, who previously have considerable ground to makeup
15
towards appeasing progressives wary of served in Congress. More conventional against Clinton. From a pure demographic
Clinton’s ties to Wall Street, as well as candidates include John Kasich, who too standpoint, Trump will have to improve
Julian Castro, the former mayor of San has Congressional experience and who his numbers among minorities and
Antonio, who, at 40, is the current U.S. could help deliver Ohio, and Marco Rubio, women if he wants to have any realistic
Housing and Urban Development (HUD) still a U.S. Senator from the important shot at the White House. While non-white
Secretary. Castro would check two boxes swing state of Florida, just to name a few. voters comprised only 14 percent of the
for Clinton by improving her standing electorate in 1984, they are expected
among millenials in addition to Hispanics, Ultimately, it is simply too hard predict to make up nearly 30 percent this time
who represent a key constituency for how the election will unfold at this around. Second, the history and the
Democrats particularly in emerging swing point in time considering the general electoral map make Trump’s road to
states like Nevada and Colorado. More complexity of the race to date and just the White House even more difficult.
conventional options include Ohio Senator out unpredictable it has already been. Assuming that Trump and Clinton carry
Sherrod Brown and Virginia Senators Behind populist, outsider pitches that the states that have gone for their party’s
Tim Kaine and Mark Warner all of whom have channeled voter distrust with the nominees in the last six elections, Clinton
could potentially deliver key states in the country’s political and economic systems, starts with 242 electoral votes from 19
Electoral College fight. Trump and Sanders have garnered nearly states compared to 102 for Trump from
20 million votes combined (10,644,000 13 states. The problem is that current
For Trump, he is likely to go the DC for Trump and 9,200,000 for Sanders). polling indicates that Trump trails Clinton
insider route. He has already indicated Trump, who will be the first GOP nominee not only in important swing states like
as such stating, “I think I’ll probably go who has not served in elected office since Ohio and Florida but also in states Mitt
the political route, somebody that can Dwight Eisenhower, alone has already Romney won in 2012 like North Carolina,
help me with legislation and somebody surpassed Mitt Romney’s popular vote Arizona, Missouri and Utah. Losses by
that can help me get things passed and total from 2012 even having to face what Trump in these states, excluding Ohio,
somebody that’s been friends with the many consider to be the GOP’s most which is already in the Clinton column
senators and the congressman and all.” accomplished presidential field in a for purposes of this analysis, would give
This would suggest a candidate along generation. More impressively, he will Clinton the White House.
the lines of Tennessee Senator Bob easily pass the modern record of 10.8
Corker, a southerner with experience in million votes won by George W. Bush in
foreign affairs and banking or the more 2000 with nine states yet to vote. What
polarizing U.S. Senator from Alabama, can be drawn from this is that general
Jeff Sessions, who currently serves as voter dissatisfaction with Washington
Trump’s foreign policy advisor. However, could very well push a controversial
another important part of the equation for candidate in Trump into the White House
Trump is that his campaign must improve come November – a fact supported by
polling numbers among minorities and his claiming the GOP nomination in
women if Trump is even to have a shot the first place. He will, however, need
at being elected president. Possibilities to garner support from Democrats and
include former Alaska Governor Sarah independents just as he has done in
Palin, a Tea Party favorite who backed the primaries; however, recent polling
Trump early in the primary process, South shows that just 13 percent of Democratic-
Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, an Indian leaning voters who support Sanders
American who despite speaking out have a favorable view of the outspoken
against Trump remains a viable candidate, billionaire.
New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez,
a Mexican-American, and Oklahoma All this is not to say that Trump does not
Governor Mary Fallin, who previously have considerable ground to makeup
15
