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May 2016
among others. Trump will also play a grabs between now and June 14 to clinch electorate as both candidates move to
central role in planning the Republican the nomination. Comparatively, assuming consolidate the traditional bases of the
National Convention in Cleveland, OH no shift in superdelegates, Sanders Republican and Democratic parties.
in July. This includes picking speakers would have to win over 100 percent of At this point in the race, Trump has
and venues, which in turn helps drive the the remaining delegates, a mathematical relied primarily on support from less
party’s platform. impossibility. However, Sander’s victory educated, and mostly white voters
can be seen as continued validation of his attracted to his outsider image built on
On the other side of the aisle, Vermont campaign’s staunchly populist message an anti-Washington message. For her
Senator Bernie Sanders rebounded from a focused on overhauling the campaign part, Clinton’s base of support remains
string of losses and dealt Hillary Clinton’s finance system and reigning in Wall Street firmly entrenched among female and
campaign a defeat, albeit a symbolic – a message Sander’s has pledged to take minority voters. With both candidates
one. A common them across other states all the way to the floor of the Democratic on the cusp of clinching the nomination,
where he has done well, Sanders’ victory Convention. one can expect to see large majorities of
was built on overwhelming support from traditional Republican and Democratic
young (under 45), largely white voters, Though Trump and Clinton have yet to voters coalesce behind their party’s
according to exit poll analysis. In fact, officially clinch their party’s respective nominee. At least with regards to Trump,
whites younger than 45, who accounted nominations, the focus continues to shift results from the recent slate of primary
states, including New York and Indiana,
for a third of Indiana voters, backed towards a general election indicate as such with Trump crossing the
Sanders by a vast 78 to 22 percent margin. matchup between the 50 percent vote threshold and winning by
By comparison, nonwhites age 45 and two party’s presumptive double digit margins. Further, in addition
older, a huge group for Clinton, accounted nominees. At this point to the candidates themselves, leaders from
for only 11 percent of the electorate in the race, most polling both parties, including RNC Chairman
compared with 22 percent on average indicates that the outcome Reince Priebus, have called on voters
across other states. As in many states that is a foregone conclusion. to coalesce behind their presumptive
the Vermont Senator has carried, however, In fact, the most recent nominees.
Sanders was unable to significantly CNN/ORC poll, completed
narrow the overall delegate gap with ahead of Trump’s victory One complicating factor, however, is
Hillary Clinton due to Democratic primary in Indiana, found Clinton whether the anti-Trump movement will
rules awarding delegates proportionally. leading Trump by double fully embrace Trump’s candidacy or rather
Clinton needs only win about 19 percent digits (54 to 31 percent). However, a new sit out the presidential race and focus on
of the remaining 933 delegates up for Rasmussen poll shows Trump actually down-ballot GOP candidates. Another
leading Clinton 41 to 39 percent. The most scenario would be rally support behind
striking finding from the poll, Trump does a conservative, third-party candidate
twice as well among Democrats as Clinton more aligned with traditional Republican
does among Republicans in a matchup positions. Though extreme and more
between the two candidates. Taken than likely to hand the White House to
together, the broad takeaway is that early Clinton, this scenario is entirely possible.
general election matchup polls are simply Conservative activists, like talk radio host
too unpredictable to rely on at this point Erick Erickson and Bill Kristol, editor
in the race. of the Weekly Standard, have already
begun exploring opportunities for fielding
First and foremost, there will be an anti-Trump candidate either using
significant movement throughout the
13
among others. Trump will also play a grabs between now and June 14 to clinch electorate as both candidates move to
central role in planning the Republican the nomination. Comparatively, assuming consolidate the traditional bases of the
National Convention in Cleveland, OH no shift in superdelegates, Sanders Republican and Democratic parties.
in July. This includes picking speakers would have to win over 100 percent of At this point in the race, Trump has
and venues, which in turn helps drive the the remaining delegates, a mathematical relied primarily on support from less
party’s platform. impossibility. However, Sander’s victory educated, and mostly white voters
can be seen as continued validation of his attracted to his outsider image built on
On the other side of the aisle, Vermont campaign’s staunchly populist message an anti-Washington message. For her
Senator Bernie Sanders rebounded from a focused on overhauling the campaign part, Clinton’s base of support remains
string of losses and dealt Hillary Clinton’s finance system and reigning in Wall Street firmly entrenched among female and
campaign a defeat, albeit a symbolic – a message Sander’s has pledged to take minority voters. With both candidates
one. A common them across other states all the way to the floor of the Democratic on the cusp of clinching the nomination,
where he has done well, Sanders’ victory Convention. one can expect to see large majorities of
was built on overwhelming support from traditional Republican and Democratic
young (under 45), largely white voters, Though Trump and Clinton have yet to voters coalesce behind their party’s
according to exit poll analysis. In fact, officially clinch their party’s respective nominee. At least with regards to Trump,
whites younger than 45, who accounted nominations, the focus continues to shift results from the recent slate of primary
states, including New York and Indiana,
for a third of Indiana voters, backed towards a general election indicate as such with Trump crossing the
Sanders by a vast 78 to 22 percent margin. matchup between the 50 percent vote threshold and winning by
By comparison, nonwhites age 45 and two party’s presumptive double digit margins. Further, in addition
older, a huge group for Clinton, accounted nominees. At this point to the candidates themselves, leaders from
for only 11 percent of the electorate in the race, most polling both parties, including RNC Chairman
compared with 22 percent on average indicates that the outcome Reince Priebus, have called on voters
across other states. As in many states that is a foregone conclusion. to coalesce behind their presumptive
the Vermont Senator has carried, however, In fact, the most recent nominees.
Sanders was unable to significantly CNN/ORC poll, completed
narrow the overall delegate gap with ahead of Trump’s victory One complicating factor, however, is
Hillary Clinton due to Democratic primary in Indiana, found Clinton whether the anti-Trump movement will
rules awarding delegates proportionally. leading Trump by double fully embrace Trump’s candidacy or rather
Clinton needs only win about 19 percent digits (54 to 31 percent). However, a new sit out the presidential race and focus on
of the remaining 933 delegates up for Rasmussen poll shows Trump actually down-ballot GOP candidates. Another
leading Clinton 41 to 39 percent. The most scenario would be rally support behind
striking finding from the poll, Trump does a conservative, third-party candidate
twice as well among Democrats as Clinton more aligned with traditional Republican
does among Republicans in a matchup positions. Though extreme and more
between the two candidates. Taken than likely to hand the White House to
together, the broad takeaway is that early Clinton, this scenario is entirely possible.
general election matchup polls are simply Conservative activists, like talk radio host
too unpredictable to rely on at this point Erick Erickson and Bill Kristol, editor
in the race. of the Weekly Standard, have already
begun exploring opportunities for fielding
First and foremost, there will be an anti-Trump candidate either using
significant movement throughout the
13
