Page 10 - 2021 Special Report
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their reinvestment quota in 2020 in China compared 《特别报告》指出，在华外籍高管数量的减少与
with 2019. Factors including huge market potential, 计划再投资特大项目的大幅减少存在着直接联系。
preferential policies and uncertainties of pandemic 大中小型再投资项目（100万美元至2.5亿美元）增
in other countries, have whetted companies’ interest 加，在华再投资预算保持稳定，而涉及2.5亿美元以
to increase investment in China or shift investment 上的特大型再投资项目却达到了近年来的最低值（
to China. Furthermore, A vast majority of companies 所有外资企业同比减少4/5，美资企业减少近3/4）。
still have expansion plans in China in the next three 我们预测，这将对中国的制造业产出造成严重的影
years. Nearly all the studied companies express their 响，该影响或将持续两到三年。上一次类似情况发生
willingness to stay in China despite US-China trade 在2016年。《2017年华南地区经济情况特别报告》预
friction. Compared to previous year, more companies 测，在疫情爆发之前，中国经济将在2018年和2019
firmly believe that they will see further improvement 年 出 现 放 缓（ G D P 增 长 率 在 2 0 1 8 年 降 至 6 . 6 ％，在
in US-China relations in 2021. American business has 2019年降至6.1％）。
obviously not given up on China. Our governments
must get back to the table immediately for a new 自特朗普上台以来，这两个全球最大经济体便陷
Phase II deal. As Henry Ford once said, what is good 入了一场激烈的贸易争端。中美两国互相向对方价
for business is good for America. 值数千亿美元的产品征收额外关税。特朗普总统长
期指责中国的不公平贸易和知识产权剽窃行为。中
An interesting finding of the 2021 Special Report is 国人则认为美国在试图遏制中国崛起成为全球经济
the direct connection between the reduced number of 大国。双方正在进行谈判，这个过程非常艰难，但很
expatriate executives in China and the massive reduction in 有必要。2020年1月，双方签署了一份初步协议，即广
the number of very large planned reinvestments. While total 为人知的第一阶段协议。距离那次谈判已过去一年，
dollar amount of budgeted reinvestments has held steady 还有一些最为棘手的问题仍未解决。如今，美国迎来
due to the increase in number of large, medium and small 新任总统，有关中美贸易摩擦的不确定性继续对企
reinvestment projects (between 1 million and 250 million 业造成伤害，全球经济承压严重。特朗普政府对一系
US dollars each), the number of very large foreign planned 列中国进口产品加征关税，还以国家安全为由对华
reinvestment projects involving 250 million US dollars or 为等中国企业进行严厉制裁，导致中美关系迅速恶
more each have reached the lowest levels in several years 化。自40多年前中美关系正常化以来，中美关系首次
(a 4/5th reduction year on year for all foreign companies 跌入最低谷。两国在贸易和应对新冠疫情等问题上
and nearly 3/4th for US companies). We predict that this will 产生严重分歧。许多企业领袖认为，在获得高科技设
severely impact China’s manufacturing output two to three 备和部件的问题上，拜登政府将维持对华强硬态度。
years from now. The last time a similar situation happened 拜登总统可能已决定要在贸易问题上继续与中国纠
was in 2016. Our 2017 study predicted the pre COVID-19 缠。这场争端涉及的双边贸易额如今已超过7000亿
slowdown in China’s economic growth in 2018 and 2019 美元。
(GDP growth dropped to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019).
关税必须要取消。但拜登早已宣布，他既不会立
The world's two largest economies have been locked 即废除特朗普政府与中国达成的协议，也不会取消
in a bitter trade dispute since the beginning of the Trump 对中国出口产品加征的关税。拜登表示，他将出台针
presidency. The dispute has seen the US and China impose 对中国“不正当行为”的政策，例如，“剽窃知识产权、
tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’worth of one another's 产品倾销、对企业进行非法补贴”以及强迫美国企业
goods. President Trump has long accused China of unfair 向中国同行进行“技术转让”等。他还强调，必须推动
trading practices and intellectual property theft. In China, 美国两党达成共识，政府将重点促进研发、基础设施
there is a perception that America is trying to curb its rise 和教育等领域投资，帮助美国企业在中美竞争中胜
as a global economic power. Negotiations are ongoing but 出。拜登在上任后的第一个百日内不会与中国达成
have proven difficult, but they remain necessary. Both sides 新的协议。据路透社报道，拜登曾说，“我希望优先投
signed a preliminary agreement widely known as the Phase 资美国，全力制衡中国。”他希望在采取行动之前先
I Deal in January of 2020. It has now been over a year and 与美国盟友进行谈判。“我认为，最好的对华策略是，
some of the thorniest issues remain unresolved. Now going 让所有盟友，或者至少曾经的盟友，和我们站在同一
into a new administration in the US, uncertainties around the 阵营。”
trade conflict continue to hurt businesses and weigh heavily
on the global economy. The Trump administration raised
tariffs on a range of Chinese imports and implemented
harsh sanctions against Chinese companies such as
Huawei Technologies Co., citing national security, leading
to a deterioration in relations. The relationship between
China and the US has fallen to its lowest level since Beijing
and Washington established formal diplomatic ties over
40 years ago, with the two countries clashing on a range
of issues including trade and the handling of the Covid-19
pandemic. But many business leaders expected the Biden
administration to maintain a tough stance on China when
it comes to access to hi-tech equipment and components.
10
with 2019. Factors including huge market potential, 计划再投资特大项目的大幅减少存在着直接联系。
preferential policies and uncertainties of pandemic 大中小型再投资项目（100万美元至2.5亿美元）增
in other countries, have whetted companies’ interest 加，在华再投资预算保持稳定，而涉及2.5亿美元以
to increase investment in China or shift investment 上的特大型再投资项目却达到了近年来的最低值（
to China. Furthermore, A vast majority of companies 所有外资企业同比减少4/5，美资企业减少近3/4）。
still have expansion plans in China in the next three 我们预测，这将对中国的制造业产出造成严重的影
years. Nearly all the studied companies express their 响，该影响或将持续两到三年。上一次类似情况发生
willingness to stay in China despite US-China trade 在2016年。《2017年华南地区经济情况特别报告》预
friction. Compared to previous year, more companies 测，在疫情爆发之前，中国经济将在2018年和2019
firmly believe that they will see further improvement 年 出 现 放 缓（ G D P 增 长 率 在 2 0 1 8 年 降 至 6 . 6 ％，在
in US-China relations in 2021. American business has 2019年降至6.1％）。
obviously not given up on China. Our governments
must get back to the table immediately for a new 自特朗普上台以来，这两个全球最大经济体便陷
Phase II deal. As Henry Ford once said, what is good 入了一场激烈的贸易争端。中美两国互相向对方价
for business is good for America. 值数千亿美元的产品征收额外关税。特朗普总统长
期指责中国的不公平贸易和知识产权剽窃行为。中
An interesting finding of the 2021 Special Report is 国人则认为美国在试图遏制中国崛起成为全球经济
the direct connection between the reduced number of 大国。双方正在进行谈判，这个过程非常艰难，但很
expatriate executives in China and the massive reduction in 有必要。2020年1月，双方签署了一份初步协议，即广
the number of very large planned reinvestments. While total 为人知的第一阶段协议。距离那次谈判已过去一年，
dollar amount of budgeted reinvestments has held steady 还有一些最为棘手的问题仍未解决。如今，美国迎来
due to the increase in number of large, medium and small 新任总统，有关中美贸易摩擦的不确定性继续对企
reinvestment projects (between 1 million and 250 million 业造成伤害，全球经济承压严重。特朗普政府对一系
US dollars each), the number of very large foreign planned 列中国进口产品加征关税，还以国家安全为由对华
reinvestment projects involving 250 million US dollars or 为等中国企业进行严厉制裁，导致中美关系迅速恶
more each have reached the lowest levels in several years 化。自40多年前中美关系正常化以来，中美关系首次
(a 4/5th reduction year on year for all foreign companies 跌入最低谷。两国在贸易和应对新冠疫情等问题上
and nearly 3/4th for US companies). We predict that this will 产生严重分歧。许多企业领袖认为，在获得高科技设
severely impact China’s manufacturing output two to three 备和部件的问题上，拜登政府将维持对华强硬态度。
years from now. The last time a similar situation happened 拜登总统可能已决定要在贸易问题上继续与中国纠
was in 2016. Our 2017 study predicted the pre COVID-19 缠。这场争端涉及的双边贸易额如今已超过7000亿
slowdown in China’s economic growth in 2018 and 2019 美元。
(GDP growth dropped to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019).
关税必须要取消。但拜登早已宣布，他既不会立
The world's two largest economies have been locked 即废除特朗普政府与中国达成的协议，也不会取消
in a bitter trade dispute since the beginning of the Trump 对中国出口产品加征的关税。拜登表示，他将出台针
presidency. The dispute has seen the US and China impose 对中国“不正当行为”的政策，例如，“剽窃知识产权、
tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’worth of one another's 产品倾销、对企业进行非法补贴”以及强迫美国企业
goods. President Trump has long accused China of unfair 向中国同行进行“技术转让”等。他还强调，必须推动
trading practices and intellectual property theft. In China, 美国两党达成共识，政府将重点促进研发、基础设施
there is a perception that America is trying to curb its rise 和教育等领域投资，帮助美国企业在中美竞争中胜
as a global economic power. Negotiations are ongoing but 出。拜登在上任后的第一个百日内不会与中国达成
have proven difficult, but they remain necessary. Both sides 新的协议。据路透社报道，拜登曾说，“我希望优先投
signed a preliminary agreement widely known as the Phase 资美国，全力制衡中国。”他希望在采取行动之前先
I Deal in January of 2020. It has now been over a year and 与美国盟友进行谈判。“我认为，最好的对华策略是，
some of the thorniest issues remain unresolved. Now going 让所有盟友，或者至少曾经的盟友，和我们站在同一
into a new administration in the US, uncertainties around the 阵营。”
trade conflict continue to hurt businesses and weigh heavily
on the global economy. The Trump administration raised
tariffs on a range of Chinese imports and implemented
harsh sanctions against Chinese companies such as
Huawei Technologies Co., citing national security, leading
to a deterioration in relations. The relationship between
China and the US has fallen to its lowest level since Beijing
and Washington established formal diplomatic ties over
40 years ago, with the two countries clashing on a range
of issues including trade and the handling of the Covid-19
pandemic. But many business leaders expected the Biden
administration to maintain a tough stance on China when
it comes to access to hi-tech equipment and components.
10
