Page 10 - 2021 Special Report

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their reinvestment quota in 2020 in China compared ????????????猴??ㄥ?澶??楂???伴????灏??
with 2019. Factors including huge market potential, 璁″????璧??澶ч」???澶у????瀛?????存???郴??
preferential policies and uncertainties of pandemic 澶т腑灏?????璧?」???100涓?????2.5浜跨????澧?
in other countries, have whetted companies?? interest ????ㄥ????璧??绠????ǔ瀹???????2.5浜跨???互
to increase investment in China or shift investment 涓???瑰ぇ??????椤圭??磋揪?颁?杩?勾?ョ???浣??硷?
to China. Furthermore, A vast majority of companies ?????璧??涓??姣??灏?4/5锛??璧??涓??灏??3/4锛???
still have expansion plans in China in the next three ??滑棰??锛??灏??涓????????浜у????涓ラ???奖
years. Nearly all the studied companies express their ???璇ュ奖???灏??缁?袱?颁?骞淬???涓?娆＄被浼兼??靛???
willingness to stay in China despite US-China trade ??2016骞淬????2017骞村?????虹?娴???电?????????
friction. Compared to previous year, more companies 娴???ㄧ??????????涓??缁??灏??2018骞村?2019
firmly believe that they will see further improvement 骞? ?? ?? ?? 缂?? G D P 澧? ?? ?? ?? 2 0 1 8 骞? ?? ?? 6 . 6 锛????
in US-China relations in 2021. American business has 2019骞撮???6.1锛????
obviously not given up on China. Our governments
must get back to the table immediately for a new ??????涓??浠ユ?锛??涓や釜?ㄧ???澶х?娴??渚块?
Phase II deal. As Henry Ford once said, what is good ?ヤ?涓??烘????璐告?浜????腑缇?袱?戒??稿?瀵规?浠?
for business is good for America. ?兼???嚎缇????骇????堕?澶??绋????????荤???
???璐ｄ腑?界?涓??骞宠锤????ヨ?浜ф??界?琛?负??腑
An interesting finding of the 2021 Special Report is ?戒汉???涓虹??藉?璇?????涓??宕?捣??负?ㄧ?缁??
the direct connection between the reduced number of 澶у?????规??ㄨ?琛???わ?杩?釜杩????父?伴?锛??寰?
expatriate executives in China and the massive reduction in ???瑕???2020骞?1??????绛剧讲浜??浠藉?姝ュ?璁???冲箍
the number of very large planned reinvestments. While total 涓轰汉?ョ?绗???舵???????绂婚?娆¤??ゅ凡杩??涓?骞达?
dollar amount of budgeted reinvestments has held steady 杩??涓?浜??涓烘???????浠??瑙ｅ????浠??缇??杩??
due to the increase in number of large, medium and small ?颁换?荤?锛???充腑缇?锤??????涓?‘瀹??х户缁??浼?
reinvestment projects (between 1 million and 250 million 涓????浼ゅ?锛?????娴????弗?????????垮?瀵逛?绯?
US dollars each), the number of very large foreign planned ??腑?借??ｄ骇???寰??绋??杩?互?藉?瀹??涓虹?瀵瑰?
reinvestment projects involving 250 million US dollars or 涓虹?涓??浼??杩??涓ュ??惰?锛???翠腑缇??绯昏????
more each have reached the lowest levels in several years ?????40澶?勾??腑缇??绯绘?甯稿?浠ユ?锛?腑缇??绯婚?娆?
(a 4/5th reduction year on year for all foreign companies 璺????浣?胺??袱?藉?璐告????瀵规??????????涓?
and nearly 3/4th for US companies). We predict that this will 浜х?涓ラ???????澶??涓??琚??涓猴??ㄨ?寰??绉??璁?
severely impact China?? manufacturing output two to three 澶???ㄤ欢???棰??锛???绘?搴??缁存?瀵瑰?寮虹‖??害??
years from now. The last time a similar situation happened ????荤????宸插?瀹???ㄨ锤???棰??缁х画涓?腑?界?
was in 2016. Our 2017 study predicted the pre COVID-19 缂?????轰?绔???????竟璐告?棰??浠?凡瓒??7000浜?
slowdown in China?? economic growth in 2018 and 2019 缇????
(GDP growth dropped to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019).
?崇?蹇?』瑕??娑????????╁凡瀹ｅ?锛?????浼??
The world's two largest economies have been locked ?冲??ょ?????垮?涓?腑?借揪??????锛??涓?????
in a bitter trade dispute since the beginning of the Trump 瀵逛腑?藉??ｄ骇???寰???崇?????昏〃绀猴?浠???哄???
presidency. The dispute has seen the US and China impose 瀵逛腑?解???姝ｅ?琛?负????跨?锛??濡?????绐??璇?骇????
tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars??orth of one another's 浜у??鹃????浼??杩?????琛ヨ创??互??己杩???戒?涓?
goods. President Trump has long accused China of unfair ??腑?藉?琛??琛??????浆璁┾??????杩?己璋??蹇?』?ㄥ?
trading practices and intellectual property theft. In China, 缇??涓ゅ?杈炬??辫?锛??搴?????淇????????纭?璁炬?
there is a perception that America is trying to curb its rise ????茬?棰?????锛?府?╃??戒?涓??涓??绔??涓??
as a global economic power. Negotiations are ongoing but ?恒????诲?涓?换???绗??涓???ュ?涓??涓?腑?借揪??
have proven difficult, but they remain necessary. Both sides ?扮???????璺???ぞ?ラ?锛???绘?璇达????甯??浼????
signed a preliminary agreement widely known as the Phase 璧???斤??ㄥ??惰　涓???????甯???ㄩ?????ㄤ????
I Deal in January of 2020. It has now been over a year and 涓???界????琛???ゃ?????璁や负锛??濂界?瀵瑰?绛?????
some of the thorniest issues remain unresolved. Now going 璁╂????????????灏??缁?????锛????滑绔?????
into a new administration in the US, uncertainties around the ?佃?????
trade conflict continue to hurt businesses and weigh heavily
on the global economy. The Trump administration raised
tariffs on a range of Chinese imports and implemented
harsh sanctions against Chinese companies such as
Huawei Technologies Co., citing national security, leading
to a deterioration in relations. The relationship between
China and the US has fallen to its lowest level since Beijing
and Washington established formal diplomatic ties over
40 years ago, with the two countries clashing on a range
of issues including trade and the handling of the Covid-19
pandemic. But many business leaders expected the Biden
administration to maintain a tough stance on China when
it comes to access to hi-tech equipment and components.

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