Page 9 - 2021 Special Report
P. 9
of its 7.7 billion people have seen in their lifetimes. 多地居家办公。国家之间和国家内部的发展不平衡状
Vaccines should accelerate the rebound in 2021. But 况将进一步加剧。政府将在保障民生方面发挥更大的
other legacies of COVID-19 will shape global growth 作用，这意味着更多的财政支出和更高的负债率。尽
for years to come. Some are already discernible. The 管如此，政策决策者必须果断行动。虽然全球经济在
takeover of factory and service jobs by robots will 经历了2020年4.3%的萎缩后已实现再次增长，但疫
advance, while white-collar workers get to stay home 情造成死亡和患病人数攀升，令数百万人陷入贫困，
more. There’ll be more inequality between and within 还可能长期抑制经济活动，导致收入减少。为克服疫
countries. Governments will play a larger role in the 情造成的影响，应对投资受阻，必须大力改善营商环
lives of citizens, spending—and owing—more money. 境，提升劳动力和产品市场的灵活性，提高透明度和
Nevertheless, policy makers must move decisively. 治理能力。中国经济继去年2%的增长过后，有望在
Although the world economy is already growing again 2021年实现7.9%的增长。2020年，中国以外的新兴
following the 4.3% contraction of 2020, the pandemic 市场和发展中经济体经历了5%的萎缩，有望在2021
caused a heavy toll of deaths and illness, plunged 年实现3.4%的增长。低收入国家2020年的经济萎缩
millions into poverty, and may depress economic 了0.9%，预计在2021年增长3.3%。据联合国和世界
activity and incomes for a prolonged period. To 银行报告，疫情可能对全球经济活动造成长期持续不
overcome the impacts of the pandemic and counter 利影响，且由于许多发达国家出现投资乏力、就业不
the investment headwind, there needs to be a major 足和劳动力减少等情况，未来十年全球的增长速度极
push to improve business environments, increase 有可能持续放缓。
labor and product market flexibility, and strengthen
transparency and governance. China’s economy is 除非政策决策者及时针对根本要素进行全面改
expected to expand by 7.9% in 2021 following 2% 革，推动合理经济可持续增长，否则，全球经济未来
growth last year. Excluding China, emerging market 十年的增长状况将令人失望。政策决策者需要维持经
and developing economies are forecast to expand 济的复苏态势，逐渐将政策重心从保收入转移至促增
3.4% in 2021 after a contraction of 5% in 2020. Among 长。长期来看，新兴市场和发展中国家推行改善卫生
low income economies, activity is projected to increase 和教育服务、加强数字基础设施建设、提升适应气候
3.3% in 2021, after a contraction of 0.9% in 2020. 变化能力以及优化商业和治理实践等政策有助于减
According to the United Nations and the World Bank, 轻疫情造成的经济损失，减少贫困人口，促进共同繁
the pandemic is expected to leave long lasting adverse 荣，而实行体制改革，刺激有机增长，对于解决公共支
effects on global activity with a likely slowdown in 出减少和债务高企等问题尤为重要。
global growth stretching through the next decade,
due to underinvestment, underemployment, and 华南美国商会发布的《2021年华南地区经济情
labor force declines in many advanced economies. 况特别报告》指出，机遇大于挑战。作为首个展现复苏
迹象的主要经济体，中国早已成功度过新冠疫情带来
The global economy could be heading for a 的严峻危机。华南美国商会的会员企业也经受住了
decade of growth disappointments unless policy 不同程度的冲击。虽然2020年全球经济深受新冠疫
makers put in place comprehensive reforms to 情等因素的影响，但在华再投资盈利只出现略微下
improve the fundamental drivers of equitable and 降，17%的受访企业2020年的再投资额比2019年有
sustainable economic growth. Policymakers need to 所减少。在中国巨大的市场潜力、各种优惠政策和其
continue to sustain the recovery, gradually shifting 他国家疫情的不确定性等因素的推动下，外国企业加
from income support to growth-enhancing policies. 大在华投资力度或将投资重心转移到中国。此外，绝
In the longer run, in emerging market and developing 大多数受访企业仍计划在未来三年内扩大在华业务。
economies, policies to improve health and education 尽管中美关系剑拔弩张，几乎所有受访企业都表示
services, digital infrastructure, climate resilience, and 愿意留在中国。与去年相比，有更多企业坚信中美关
business and governance practices will help mitigate 系会在2021年有所改善。显然，美国企业并未放弃中
the economic damage caused by the pandemic, 国。两国政府必须立即重回谈判桌，达成全新的第二
reduce poverty and advance shared prosperity, while 阶段协议。正如亨利•福特所言，对企业有利即对美
in the context of reduced public spending and elevated 国有利。
debt, institutional reforms to spur organic growth are
particularly important.
According to the results of the AmCham South
China’s 2021 Special Report, our annual State of
Business Study, the opportunities outweigh the
challenges. As the first major economy to show
a recovery, China has successfully navigated the
extreme hardship brought by the COVID-19. AmCham
South China members have withstood the impact
to various degrees. While a combination of factors
including the coronavirus pandemic severely impacted
the global economy in 2020, only a slight decrease
in reinvestment from profits in China was realized,
with 17% of the studied companies having reduced
9
Vaccines should accelerate the rebound in 2021. But 况将进一步加剧。政府将在保障民生方面发挥更大的
other legacies of COVID-19 will shape global growth 作用，这意味着更多的财政支出和更高的负债率。尽
for years to come. Some are already discernible. The 管如此，政策决策者必须果断行动。虽然全球经济在
takeover of factory and service jobs by robots will 经历了2020年4.3%的萎缩后已实现再次增长，但疫
advance, while white-collar workers get to stay home 情造成死亡和患病人数攀升，令数百万人陷入贫困，
more. There’ll be more inequality between and within 还可能长期抑制经济活动，导致收入减少。为克服疫
countries. Governments will play a larger role in the 情造成的影响，应对投资受阻，必须大力改善营商环
lives of citizens, spending—and owing—more money. 境，提升劳动力和产品市场的灵活性，提高透明度和
Nevertheless, policy makers must move decisively. 治理能力。中国经济继去年2%的增长过后，有望在
Although the world economy is already growing again 2021年实现7.9%的增长。2020年，中国以外的新兴
following the 4.3% contraction of 2020, the pandemic 市场和发展中经济体经历了5%的萎缩，有望在2021
caused a heavy toll of deaths and illness, plunged 年实现3.4%的增长。低收入国家2020年的经济萎缩
millions into poverty, and may depress economic 了0.9%，预计在2021年增长3.3%。据联合国和世界
activity and incomes for a prolonged period. To 银行报告，疫情可能对全球经济活动造成长期持续不
overcome the impacts of the pandemic and counter 利影响，且由于许多发达国家出现投资乏力、就业不
the investment headwind, there needs to be a major 足和劳动力减少等情况，未来十年全球的增长速度极
push to improve business environments, increase 有可能持续放缓。
labor and product market flexibility, and strengthen
transparency and governance. China’s economy is 除非政策决策者及时针对根本要素进行全面改
expected to expand by 7.9% in 2021 following 2% 革，推动合理经济可持续增长，否则，全球经济未来
growth last year. Excluding China, emerging market 十年的增长状况将令人失望。政策决策者需要维持经
and developing economies are forecast to expand 济的复苏态势，逐渐将政策重心从保收入转移至促增
3.4% in 2021 after a contraction of 5% in 2020. Among 长。长期来看，新兴市场和发展中国家推行改善卫生
low income economies, activity is projected to increase 和教育服务、加强数字基础设施建设、提升适应气候
3.3% in 2021, after a contraction of 0.9% in 2020. 变化能力以及优化商业和治理实践等政策有助于减
According to the United Nations and the World Bank, 轻疫情造成的经济损失，减少贫困人口，促进共同繁
the pandemic is expected to leave long lasting adverse 荣，而实行体制改革，刺激有机增长，对于解决公共支
effects on global activity with a likely slowdown in 出减少和债务高企等问题尤为重要。
global growth stretching through the next decade,
due to underinvestment, underemployment, and 华南美国商会发布的《2021年华南地区经济情
labor force declines in many advanced economies. 况特别报告》指出，机遇大于挑战。作为首个展现复苏
迹象的主要经济体，中国早已成功度过新冠疫情带来
The global economy could be heading for a 的严峻危机。华南美国商会的会员企业也经受住了
decade of growth disappointments unless policy 不同程度的冲击。虽然2020年全球经济深受新冠疫
makers put in place comprehensive reforms to 情等因素的影响，但在华再投资盈利只出现略微下
improve the fundamental drivers of equitable and 降，17%的受访企业2020年的再投资额比2019年有
sustainable economic growth. Policymakers need to 所减少。在中国巨大的市场潜力、各种优惠政策和其
continue to sustain the recovery, gradually shifting 他国家疫情的不确定性等因素的推动下，外国企业加
from income support to growth-enhancing policies. 大在华投资力度或将投资重心转移到中国。此外，绝
In the longer run, in emerging market and developing 大多数受访企业仍计划在未来三年内扩大在华业务。
economies, policies to improve health and education 尽管中美关系剑拔弩张，几乎所有受访企业都表示
services, digital infrastructure, climate resilience, and 愿意留在中国。与去年相比，有更多企业坚信中美关
business and governance practices will help mitigate 系会在2021年有所改善。显然，美国企业并未放弃中
the economic damage caused by the pandemic, 国。两国政府必须立即重回谈判桌，达成全新的第二
reduce poverty and advance shared prosperity, while 阶段协议。正如亨利•福特所言，对企业有利即对美
in the context of reduced public spending and elevated 国有利。
debt, institutional reforms to spur organic growth are
particularly important.
According to the results of the AmCham South
China’s 2021 Special Report, our annual State of
Business Study, the opportunities outweigh the
challenges. As the first major economy to show
a recovery, China has successfully navigated the
extreme hardship brought by the COVID-19. AmCham
South China members have withstood the impact
to various degrees. While a combination of factors
including the coronavirus pandemic severely impacted
the global economy in 2020, only a slight decrease
in reinvestment from profits in China was realized,
with 17% of the studied companies having reduced
9
