Page 10 - 2020 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
P. 10
and released a Special Report on the Impact of COVID-19 好转势头仍未出现。不过，如果有一件事顺利进行，
Coronavirus Outbreak in late February. According to 将打破这一局势，那就是中美两国达成第二阶段协
our recent polling of members as of March 6, 95% of 议。如果协议顺利达成，经济发展所需库存将得以补
our companies and 93% of factories were operational. 充，全球经济将受到强烈刺激。
About 80-85% of workers have returned to work. Many
companies are working overtime, and companies with 为了促进国际贸易，中美两国必须回到谈判桌上
offices in office buildings are implementing staggered 继续谈判，中美双方也都有强烈意愿对尚未解决的
shifts to manage people flow. We are currently calling 其他问题进行谈判。全球最大的两个经济体陷入了
members to determine the impact of the outbreak 严重的贸易冲突，无论是唇枪舌剑你来我往，还是对
on the supply chain. As of the end of February, 100% 价值数千亿美元的商品征收关税以打击对方，都对
of difficulties reported by our members were solved 该事件并无帮助。我认为，最大限度地减少冲突的关
within 24 hours from the time of being relayed by us 键是，我们能否为新兴技术制定共同标准。中美两国
to relevant government officials. 必须共同维护国际秩序与全球繁荣。中美关系将成
为双边关系的稳定器，中美双方都应加强战略沟通，
Economic growth in much of the world slowed in 避免误解误判。双方可以一起纠正过去的错误，为未
the last quarter of 2019 as consumers became more 来的世界经济、正义和安全作出贡献。
cautious about spending, leaving the economies
vulnerable as they begin to feel the effects of the 虽然自2018年以来，中美关系屡经波折，但不少
outbreak in China. It remains clear that business as 华南美国商会的会员企业都在不同程度上经受住了
usual has not fully resumed. One thing that can help 冲击。我们今年的《特别报告》发现，在中国，收入、盈
would be a Phase II deal between the US and China. 利能力和投资回报均相对稳定。虽然较多美国公司
This would supply a needed boost to international 表示，他们发现在中国的收入相比同行下降更多，但
economies as they restock necessary inventory. 其盈利能力仍优于其他公司。尽管存在各种问题和
争议，中国仍然是超过半数受访企业的全球三大投
For the sake of international trade, the US 资目的地之一，在中国再投资的意愿依然强烈。
and China must return to the negotiating table.
Both countries have a big incentive to agree to the 虽然《中美第一阶段经贸协议》已经达成，但绝大
additional issues that are still unresolved. The world's 多数受访华南企业认为中美贸易争端可能在2020年
two biggest economies have been locked in a bruising 升级。新冠肺炎疫情爆发让局势发生了较大变化。有
trade conflict. Hitting each other with rhetorical 迹象表明，全球供应链已经捉襟见肘，整条供应链崩
volleys and tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ 溃并非杞人忧天。这种情况下，全球经济衰退也并不
worth of goods is not helping the process. I believe 遥远。由于种种原因，美国公司、乃至全球绝大多数
the key to minimizing conflict is if we can develop 公司，都依赖全球供应链生存。许多在中国或美国组
shared standards for emerging technologies. Our 装的商品，其原材料和零部件可能来自多个不同国
nations must cooperate to preserve a prosperous 家。正如我们在《白皮书》研究中所说，要取代目前的
international order. US-China ties would be a stabilizer 供应链，需要2-3万亿美元。因此，这条供应链的两个
for bilateral relations. Both sides should strengthen 主要经济体需要坐下来继续谈判，建立我们前文提
strategic communication to avoid misunderstandings 到的“稳定器”，这至关重要。
and misjudgment. Together we can right the wrongs
of the past and deliver a future of economic justice 我们需要采取行动了。曾在哈佛商学院任教、目
and security. 前任职香港大学的Michael Enright教授根据外商
直接投资指数及其乘数开展了16个月的研究。研究
While the bilateral relationship between the US 表明，平均来看，外商投资企业（FIEs）创造了中国三
and China has gone through many ups and downs 分之一的GDP和27%的就业机会。研究还表明，上海
since 2018, many AmCham South China members 67%的工业产出和90%的高技术产出都是外资企业
have withstood the impact to various degrees. 创造的。2019年，中国名义GDP约14.2万亿美元，根
Our Special Report this year found relatively stable 据这一比例，外商投资企业（其中美国公司占很大一
revenue, profitability, and return on investments in 部分）的经济产出约4.68万亿美元。这一部分经济的
China. While more US companies witnessed decline 发展，是数十亿美元、众多承诺和大量资源换来的。
in revenues from China than their counterparts, their
profitability remained better than the others. In spite
of all the problems and controversies, China remains
one of the top three investment destination in the
world by more than a half of studied companies.
Willingness to reinvest in China remains strong.
Even after the first phase of Trade Agreement
was reached, an overwhelming majority of surveyed
South China companies believed the dispute was
likely to escalate in 2020. Much has changed with
the Novel Coronavirus outbreak. There are signs the
world’s supply chain in being overstretched and the
10
Coronavirus Outbreak in late February. According to 将打破这一局势，那就是中美两国达成第二阶段协
our recent polling of members as of March 6, 95% of 议。如果协议顺利达成，经济发展所需库存将得以补
our companies and 93% of factories were operational. 充，全球经济将受到强烈刺激。
About 80-85% of workers have returned to work. Many
companies are working overtime, and companies with 为了促进国际贸易，中美两国必须回到谈判桌上
offices in office buildings are implementing staggered 继续谈判，中美双方也都有强烈意愿对尚未解决的
shifts to manage people flow. We are currently calling 其他问题进行谈判。全球最大的两个经济体陷入了
members to determine the impact of the outbreak 严重的贸易冲突，无论是唇枪舌剑你来我往，还是对
on the supply chain. As of the end of February, 100% 价值数千亿美元的商品征收关税以打击对方，都对
of difficulties reported by our members were solved 该事件并无帮助。我认为，最大限度地减少冲突的关
within 24 hours from the time of being relayed by us 键是，我们能否为新兴技术制定共同标准。中美两国
to relevant government officials. 必须共同维护国际秩序与全球繁荣。中美关系将成
为双边关系的稳定器，中美双方都应加强战略沟通，
Economic growth in much of the world slowed in 避免误解误判。双方可以一起纠正过去的错误，为未
the last quarter of 2019 as consumers became more 来的世界经济、正义和安全作出贡献。
cautious about spending, leaving the economies
vulnerable as they begin to feel the effects of the 虽然自2018年以来，中美关系屡经波折，但不少
outbreak in China. It remains clear that business as 华南美国商会的会员企业都在不同程度上经受住了
usual has not fully resumed. One thing that can help 冲击。我们今年的《特别报告》发现，在中国，收入、盈
would be a Phase II deal between the US and China. 利能力和投资回报均相对稳定。虽然较多美国公司
This would supply a needed boost to international 表示，他们发现在中国的收入相比同行下降更多，但
economies as they restock necessary inventory. 其盈利能力仍优于其他公司。尽管存在各种问题和
争议，中国仍然是超过半数受访企业的全球三大投
For the sake of international trade, the US 资目的地之一，在中国再投资的意愿依然强烈。
and China must return to the negotiating table.
Both countries have a big incentive to agree to the 虽然《中美第一阶段经贸协议》已经达成，但绝大
additional issues that are still unresolved. The world's 多数受访华南企业认为中美贸易争端可能在2020年
two biggest economies have been locked in a bruising 升级。新冠肺炎疫情爆发让局势发生了较大变化。有
trade conflict. Hitting each other with rhetorical 迹象表明，全球供应链已经捉襟见肘，整条供应链崩
volleys and tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ 溃并非杞人忧天。这种情况下，全球经济衰退也并不
worth of goods is not helping the process. I believe 遥远。由于种种原因，美国公司、乃至全球绝大多数
the key to minimizing conflict is if we can develop 公司，都依赖全球供应链生存。许多在中国或美国组
shared standards for emerging technologies. Our 装的商品，其原材料和零部件可能来自多个不同国
nations must cooperate to preserve a prosperous 家。正如我们在《白皮书》研究中所说，要取代目前的
international order. US-China ties would be a stabilizer 供应链，需要2-3万亿美元。因此，这条供应链的两个
for bilateral relations. Both sides should strengthen 主要经济体需要坐下来继续谈判，建立我们前文提
strategic communication to avoid misunderstandings 到的“稳定器”，这至关重要。
and misjudgment. Together we can right the wrongs
of the past and deliver a future of economic justice 我们需要采取行动了。曾在哈佛商学院任教、目
and security. 前任职香港大学的Michael Enright教授根据外商
直接投资指数及其乘数开展了16个月的研究。研究
While the bilateral relationship between the US 表明，平均来看，外商投资企业（FIEs）创造了中国三
and China has gone through many ups and downs 分之一的GDP和27%的就业机会。研究还表明，上海
since 2018, many AmCham South China members 67%的工业产出和90%的高技术产出都是外资企业
have withstood the impact to various degrees. 创造的。2019年，中国名义GDP约14.2万亿美元，根
Our Special Report this year found relatively stable 据这一比例，外商投资企业（其中美国公司占很大一
revenue, profitability, and return on investments in 部分）的经济产出约4.68万亿美元。这一部分经济的
China. While more US companies witnessed decline 发展，是数十亿美元、众多承诺和大量资源换来的。
in revenues from China than their counterparts, their
profitability remained better than the others. In spite
of all the problems and controversies, China remains
one of the top three investment destination in the
world by more than a half of studied companies.
Willingness to reinvest in China remains strong.
Even after the first phase of Trade Agreement
was reached, an overwhelming majority of surveyed
South China companies believed the dispute was
likely to escalate in 2020. Much has changed with
the Novel Coronavirus outbreak. There are signs the
world’s supply chain in being overstretched and the
10
