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MMUNITY NEWS
Starting in early 2018, the U.S. and China engaged To determine each grid cell’s exposure to the
in a series of high-profile tariff actions that tariffs, researchers examined China’s 2016 customs
escalated over the next two years. At the height data and pinpointed the geo-location of each
of the trade war, U.S. tariffs affected 14.2% of the trading firm in China using Google Maps AP and
value of China’s total exports, or 74.7% of China’s Amap geo-coordinates (maintained by the Alibaba
exports to the U.S. in 2017. In response, China Group). Using this location data, they calculated
enacted retaliatory tariffs on goods from the U.S. the baseline level of export and import activities in
that accounted for 5.6% of the value of China’s each grid cell.
total imports, or 66% of imports from the U.S. in
2017. Existing research has tended to focus on the Lastly, researchers collected the prefecture-level
impact of the trade war on the U.S. economy. Much GDP per capita and manufacturing employment
less is known about its impact on China due to data from various years of the China City Statistics
limited data availability. This research rectifies the Yearbook and linked these economic outcomes to
gap by identifying and quantifying the effects on local nighttime luminosity prior to the trade war.
per capita income and employment growth across They then ascertained the changes in night lights
China resulting from both the U.S. tariffs imposed luminosity across grid cells after the start of the
on goods from China and from retaliatory tariffs 2018 tariff war and used the ratio derived from
imposed by China on goods from the U.S. the pre-trade war data to estimate the changes
What Night Lights Reveal in local GDP per capita
and manufacturing
employment implied by
about the Impact of the the observed changes in
luminosity.
U.S.-China Trade War on Nighttime luminosity
China’s Economy By SCCEI China Brief adversely affected by
tariffs. Researchers
identified a negative
correlation between
increased tariffs imposed
by the U.S. on China and
nighttime luminosity in
The data. Human-generated night lights are known China from September 2017 to December 2019.
Each 1 percentage point increase in the exposure
to be brighter in locations with higher concentrations of a grid location to U.S. tariffs was associated
of population or economic activity. Satellite readings with a 0.59% reduction in nighttime luminosity.
of nighttime luminosity have emerged as a widely This translated into a decrease in income per
used proxy for local economic performance, owing capita of 0.28% and a fall in manufacturing
to its strong correlation with conventional metrics employment of 0.18%.
such as real GDP per capita. Researchers compiled
high-resolution readings from nearly 100,000 11km- Differential impacts of U.S. tariffs on income
by-11km grid cells across mainland China from the per capita and manufacturing employment. The
VIIRS-DNB satellite image dataset and conducted
analyses on night light trends from the fourth
quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2019.
Researchers also gathered information from an Impact of increased U.S. tariff shocks on intensity of night lights
earlier analysis (Bown 2021) on the timing, definition,
and scope of products subject to the tariff hikes
associated with U.S.-China trade from January
2018 through September 2019, prior to the Phase
One Trade Agreement. They complemented these
tariff data with information from Most Favored
Nation tariff schedules compiled by China’s General
Administration of Customs to account for any
discretionary changes made by China’s authorities
since 2017.
37 AMCHAM SOUTH CHINA
Starting in early 2018, the U.S. and China engaged To determine each grid cell’s exposure to the
in a series of high-profile tariff actions that tariffs, researchers examined China’s 2016 customs
escalated over the next two years. At the height data and pinpointed the geo-location of each
of the trade war, U.S. tariffs affected 14.2% of the trading firm in China using Google Maps AP and
value of China’s total exports, or 74.7% of China’s Amap geo-coordinates (maintained by the Alibaba
exports to the U.S. in 2017. In response, China Group). Using this location data, they calculated
enacted retaliatory tariffs on goods from the U.S. the baseline level of export and import activities in
that accounted for 5.6% of the value of China’s each grid cell.
total imports, or 66% of imports from the U.S. in
2017. Existing research has tended to focus on the Lastly, researchers collected the prefecture-level
impact of the trade war on the U.S. economy. Much GDP per capita and manufacturing employment
less is known about its impact on China due to data from various years of the China City Statistics
limited data availability. This research rectifies the Yearbook and linked these economic outcomes to
gap by identifying and quantifying the effects on local nighttime luminosity prior to the trade war.
per capita income and employment growth across They then ascertained the changes in night lights
China resulting from both the U.S. tariffs imposed luminosity across grid cells after the start of the
on goods from China and from retaliatory tariffs 2018 tariff war and used the ratio derived from
imposed by China on goods from the U.S. the pre-trade war data to estimate the changes
What Night Lights Reveal in local GDP per capita
and manufacturing
employment implied by
about the Impact of the the observed changes in
luminosity.
U.S.-China Trade War on Nighttime luminosity
China’s Economy By SCCEI China Brief adversely affected by
tariffs. Researchers
identified a negative
correlation between
increased tariffs imposed
by the U.S. on China and
nighttime luminosity in
The data. Human-generated night lights are known China from September 2017 to December 2019.
Each 1 percentage point increase in the exposure
to be brighter in locations with higher concentrations of a grid location to U.S. tariffs was associated
of population or economic activity. Satellite readings with a 0.59% reduction in nighttime luminosity.
of nighttime luminosity have emerged as a widely This translated into a decrease in income per
used proxy for local economic performance, owing capita of 0.28% and a fall in manufacturing
to its strong correlation with conventional metrics employment of 0.18%.
such as real GDP per capita. Researchers compiled
high-resolution readings from nearly 100,000 11km- Differential impacts of U.S. tariffs on income
by-11km grid cells across mainland China from the per capita and manufacturing employment. The
VIIRS-DNB satellite image dataset and conducted
analyses on night light trends from the fourth
quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2019.
Researchers also gathered information from an Impact of increased U.S. tariff shocks on intensity of night lights
earlier analysis (Bown 2021) on the timing, definition,
and scope of products subject to the tariff hikes
associated with U.S.-China trade from January
2018 through September 2019, prior to the Phase
One Trade Agreement. They complemented these
tariff data with information from Most Favored
Nation tariff schedules compiled by China’s General
Administration of Customs to account for any
discretionary changes made by China’s authorities
since 2017.
37 AMCHAM SOUTH CHINA
