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searchers also found that there were differential of the impact of the U.S.-China tariff war on China’s
impacts across grids in the severity of exposure economy. According to this research, the U.S.-China
to the U.S. tariffs. Up to 70% of China’s population trade war exerted downward pressures on China’s
experienced close to zero or minimal exposure to income per capita and manufacturing employment
the U.S. tariffs. At the other end of the spectrum, in areas directly exposed to the U.S. tariff shocks.
2.5% of the population located in grids with the Moreover, researchers found that negative impacts
largest U.S. tariff shocks saw an estimated 2.52% of U.S. tariffs on night lights continued into 2020,
decrease in income per capita and a 1.62% decrease suggesting that the tariff war could have been a
in manufacturing employment relative to unaffected contributing factor in the overall contraction of
grids. These grids that experienced the largest U.S. China’s local economic activity during the early
tariff shocks, furthermore, were located in close to months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
two-thirds of China's prefectures (203 prefectures)
spread across the country. “Insights
Researchers also suggest that these calculations • This study finds that following the
are most likely lower-bound estimates of the onset of the U.S.-China trade war in
full adverse impact on per capita income and 2018, a 1 percentage point increase
manufacturing employment in China. According to in local exposure to U.S. tariffs in
their analysis, even grids with no direct U.S. tariff China was associated with a 0.59%
exposure were probably impacted by negative reduction in nighttime luminosity,
spillovers from economic interactions with impacted representing a 0.28% decrease in
firms located in other parts of China. income per capita
China’s retaliatory tariffs result in no significant and a 0.18% decrease in
effects. Although China’s retaliatory tariffs levied on manufacturing employment.
imports from the U.S. could have exerted a drag on
China’s local economy by raising the cost of inputs • The negative effects of the tariffs
from the U.S., researchers found no significant were particularly skewed across
effects on China’s night lights intensity from China’s locations. Up to 70% of China’s
retaliatory tariffs. population experienced close to zero
China’s economy adversely impacted by U.S. tariffs. exposure to the U.S. tariffs. But for
By using satellite readings on nighttime luminosity, the 2.5% of China’s population living
this study offers one of the few existing analyses in areas with the heaviest exposure,
there was an estimated 2.52%
Impact of U.S. tariff shocks on night lights, GDP per capita, and decrease in income per capita
manufacturing employment (Q4/2017 to Q4/2019) and a 1.62% decrease in
manufacturing employment.
• 2.5% of China’s population in areas
hit with the largest U.S. tariff shocks
were located in close to two-thirds of
China’s prefectures (203 prefectures)
spread across the country.
• Researchers found no significant
effects from the retaliatory tariffs
China levied on imports from the
U.S. on the intensity of China’s
night lights.
”
SOUTH CHINA BUSINESS JOURNAL 38
impacts across grids in the severity of exposure economy. According to this research, the U.S.-China
to the U.S. tariffs. Up to 70% of China’s population trade war exerted downward pressures on China’s
experienced close to zero or minimal exposure to income per capita and manufacturing employment
the U.S. tariffs. At the other end of the spectrum, in areas directly exposed to the U.S. tariff shocks.
2.5% of the population located in grids with the Moreover, researchers found that negative impacts
largest U.S. tariff shocks saw an estimated 2.52% of U.S. tariffs on night lights continued into 2020,
decrease in income per capita and a 1.62% decrease suggesting that the tariff war could have been a
in manufacturing employment relative to unaffected contributing factor in the overall contraction of
grids. These grids that experienced the largest U.S. China’s local economic activity during the early
tariff shocks, furthermore, were located in close to months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
two-thirds of China's prefectures (203 prefectures)
spread across the country. “Insights
Researchers also suggest that these calculations • This study finds that following the
are most likely lower-bound estimates of the onset of the U.S.-China trade war in
full adverse impact on per capita income and 2018, a 1 percentage point increase
manufacturing employment in China. According to in local exposure to U.S. tariffs in
their analysis, even grids with no direct U.S. tariff China was associated with a 0.59%
exposure were probably impacted by negative reduction in nighttime luminosity,
spillovers from economic interactions with impacted representing a 0.28% decrease in
firms located in other parts of China. income per capita
China’s retaliatory tariffs result in no significant and a 0.18% decrease in
effects. Although China’s retaliatory tariffs levied on manufacturing employment.
imports from the U.S. could have exerted a drag on
China’s local economy by raising the cost of inputs • The negative effects of the tariffs
from the U.S., researchers found no significant were particularly skewed across
effects on China’s night lights intensity from China’s locations. Up to 70% of China’s
retaliatory tariffs. population experienced close to zero
China’s economy adversely impacted by U.S. tariffs. exposure to the U.S. tariffs. But for
By using satellite readings on nighttime luminosity, the 2.5% of China’s population living
this study offers one of the few existing analyses in areas with the heaviest exposure,
there was an estimated 2.52%
Impact of U.S. tariff shocks on night lights, GDP per capita, and decrease in income per capita
manufacturing employment (Q4/2017 to Q4/2019) and a 1.62% decrease in
manufacturing employment.
• 2.5% of China’s population in areas
hit with the largest U.S. tariff shocks
were located in close to two-thirds of
China’s prefectures (203 prefectures)
spread across the country.
• Researchers found no significant
effects from the retaliatory tariffs
China levied on imports from the
U.S. on the intensity of China’s
night lights.
”
SOUTH CHINA BUSINESS JOURNAL 38
