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rtphones — early versions used exclusively U.S. technology, but today’s versions combine technology from
both countries’ ecosystems.
Researchers noted signs of increasing decoupling beginning in 2018, possibly associated with trade barriers
launched by both governments, but found the sample period too short to draw definitive inferences.
China’s reduced dependence since 2009. The technologies of U.S. and China continued to become more
integrated since 2000, conforming to the general trend of globalization. China’s technological dependence on the
U.S., however, is hump-shaped: it rose throughout the decade approaching the Great Recession, peaked in 2009,
and then began to decline as China developed its own R&D and innovative capacity. For example, China’s widely-
used mobile payment platforms like Alipay or WeChat Pay do not depend heavily on U.S. mobile payment technology.
Among the 10 high-tech fields analyzed, China’s dependence on the U.S. is the greatest in pharmaceuticals,
semiconductors, software, and smartphones, but their dependence levels decreased over time. Most of the
more decoupled fields are relatively new technologies, such as neural networks, cloud computing, and self-
driving cars. These newer fields exhibit more decoupling and a steeper drop in China’s dependence on the U.S.
Particularly worth noting is the “drones” sector, whose dependence measure turned negative — i.e., China took
the lead in 2019.
For China, decoupling gives rise to dependence. While overall levels of China’s technology dependence
on the U.S. are declining, researchers uncovered evidence of a nuanced feedback loop: a lower level of China’s
dependence on the U.S. in a given technology field predicted a higher level of decoupling in the coming year.
However, a higher level of decoupling predicted a higher level of dependence two years down the road.
What can account for these findings? The research suggests that as China underwent economic
expansion, its technology advancement relied heavily on adopting foreign, cutting-edge technologies, in
particular that of the United States. After a wave of learning and adoption, however, China’s technology
dependence on the U.S. declined, as stronger domestic capabilities enabled a higher level of technology
decoupling with the U.S. Yet, decoupling creates a barrier for Chinese companies to learn from their foreign
counterparts, which hinders further progress and puts China at a disadvantage when more advanced
technologies are developed. Such a zigzag process suggests a tension between China’s desire and its ability to
progress independently and may explain its growing integration with the rest of the world despite mutual distrust.
SOSUOTUHTCHHCINHAINBAUBSUINSEINSESSJSOJUORUNRANLAL2020
both countries’ ecosystems.
Researchers noted signs of increasing decoupling beginning in 2018, possibly associated with trade barriers
launched by both governments, but found the sample period too short to draw definitive inferences.
China’s reduced dependence since 2009. The technologies of U.S. and China continued to become more
integrated since 2000, conforming to the general trend of globalization. China’s technological dependence on the
U.S., however, is hump-shaped: it rose throughout the decade approaching the Great Recession, peaked in 2009,
and then began to decline as China developed its own R&D and innovative capacity. For example, China’s widely-
used mobile payment platforms like Alipay or WeChat Pay do not depend heavily on U.S. mobile payment technology.
Among the 10 high-tech fields analyzed, China’s dependence on the U.S. is the greatest in pharmaceuticals,
semiconductors, software, and smartphones, but their dependence levels decreased over time. Most of the
more decoupled fields are relatively new technologies, such as neural networks, cloud computing, and self-
driving cars. These newer fields exhibit more decoupling and a steeper drop in China’s dependence on the U.S.
Particularly worth noting is the “drones” sector, whose dependence measure turned negative — i.e., China took
the lead in 2019.
For China, decoupling gives rise to dependence. While overall levels of China’s technology dependence
on the U.S. are declining, researchers uncovered evidence of a nuanced feedback loop: a lower level of China’s
dependence on the U.S. in a given technology field predicted a higher level of decoupling in the coming year.
However, a higher level of decoupling predicted a higher level of dependence two years down the road.
What can account for these findings? The research suggests that as China underwent economic
expansion, its technology advancement relied heavily on adopting foreign, cutting-edge technologies, in
particular that of the United States. After a wave of learning and adoption, however, China’s technology
dependence on the U.S. declined, as stronger domestic capabilities enabled a higher level of technology
decoupling with the U.S. Yet, decoupling creates a barrier for Chinese companies to learn from their foreign
counterparts, which hinders further progress and puts China at a disadvantage when more advanced
technologies are developed. Such a zigzag process suggests a tension between China’s desire and its ability to
progress independently and may explain its growing integration with the rest of the world despite mutual distrust.
SOSUOTUHTCHHCINHAINBAUBSUINSEINSESSJSOJUORUNRANLAL2020
