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MMUNITY NEWS
Mapping U.S.-China
Technology Decoupling
and Dependence
By the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI)
The U.S. and China have recently sought to unwind the current level of technology integration and
interdependence between the two countries. This process of diverging into two technology ecosystems with
an increasing degree of separation is now widely known as “decoupling.” The extent of decoupling may also
have implications for China's technological dependence on the U.S. While there have been many debates among
scholars and policymakers about the extent and implications of technology decoupling, there has not been a
comprehensive study mapping the current state of technology decoupling and levels of dependence between
the two countries. Have the U.S. and China become increasingly decoupled? Can China achieve technology
independence via decoupling?
The data. To answer these questions, researchers developed measures for technology decoupling and
dependence based on records from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office and the Chinese National Intellectual
Property Administration.
Researchers measured decoupling by establishing how often patents in one country cite their own patents
compared to citing patents of the other country. If one country, for instance, cites no patents of the other, the two
are in a state of “complete decoupling.” By contrast, when one country is just as likely to cite patents of the other
country as they are to cite their own, the two nations are in “complete integration.” This measure of decoupling
seeks to capture how a country formulates or applies different
technological standards and advances along different
technological trajectories.
Researchers measured dependence by establishing how often
U.S. patents cite China’s patents compared to how often China’s
patents cite U.S. patents. If China’s patents cite U.S. patents
with greater frequency than vice versa, China is understood to
be more dependent on U.S. technology. High dependence is
usually associated with a weaker competitive position.
The two concepts of decoupling and dependence are separate
and not directly correlated. Countries can be integrated and
dependent, or integrated and independent. For instance, the
U.S. has historically not been dependent on China’s technology
in the same way that China has been on U.S. technology, even
as their integration has grown.
Researchers placed particular focus on patents in 10 U.S.-China technology decoupling and dependence,
high-tech fields: smartphones, semiconductors, software, 2000–2019technology fields
pharmaceuticals, internal combustion engines, machine
learning, neural networks, drones, cloud computing, and self-
driving cars.
More integration than decoupling. In 2000, the U.S. and Dependence: older versus newer technology fields
China were far more decoupled than they are today. At that
time, domestic patents in either country cited relatively few
patents in the other because each had a technology ecosystem
largely separate from the other. The two ecosystems began to
integrate further as China joined the World Trade Organization
in 2001, and the overall trend toward integration has continued
since then. This phenomenon can be seen in the development of
19 AMCHAM SOUTH CHINA
Mapping U.S.-China
Technology Decoupling
and Dependence
By the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI)
The U.S. and China have recently sought to unwind the current level of technology integration and
interdependence between the two countries. This process of diverging into two technology ecosystems with
an increasing degree of separation is now widely known as “decoupling.” The extent of decoupling may also
have implications for China's technological dependence on the U.S. While there have been many debates among
scholars and policymakers about the extent and implications of technology decoupling, there has not been a
comprehensive study mapping the current state of technology decoupling and levels of dependence between
the two countries. Have the U.S. and China become increasingly decoupled? Can China achieve technology
independence via decoupling?
The data. To answer these questions, researchers developed measures for technology decoupling and
dependence based on records from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office and the Chinese National Intellectual
Property Administration.
Researchers measured decoupling by establishing how often patents in one country cite their own patents
compared to citing patents of the other country. If one country, for instance, cites no patents of the other, the two
are in a state of “complete decoupling.” By contrast, when one country is just as likely to cite patents of the other
country as they are to cite their own, the two nations are in “complete integration.” This measure of decoupling
seeks to capture how a country formulates or applies different
technological standards and advances along different
technological trajectories.
Researchers measured dependence by establishing how often
U.S. patents cite China’s patents compared to how often China’s
patents cite U.S. patents. If China’s patents cite U.S. patents
with greater frequency than vice versa, China is understood to
be more dependent on U.S. technology. High dependence is
usually associated with a weaker competitive position.
The two concepts of decoupling and dependence are separate
and not directly correlated. Countries can be integrated and
dependent, or integrated and independent. For instance, the
U.S. has historically not been dependent on China’s technology
in the same way that China has been on U.S. technology, even
as their integration has grown.
Researchers placed particular focus on patents in 10 U.S.-China technology decoupling and dependence,
high-tech fields: smartphones, semiconductors, software, 2000–2019technology fields
pharmaceuticals, internal combustion engines, machine
learning, neural networks, drones, cloud computing, and self-
driving cars.
More integration than decoupling. In 2000, the U.S. and Dependence: older versus newer technology fields
China were far more decoupled than they are today. At that
time, domestic patents in either country cited relatively few
patents in the other because each had a technology ecosystem
largely separate from the other. The two ecosystems began to
integrate further as China joined the World Trade Organization
in 2001, and the overall trend toward integration has continued
since then. This phenomenon can be seen in the development of
19 AMCHAM SOUTH CHINA
