Page 16 - 2023 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
P. 16
3 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
1.1 COVID-19 Pandemic: The Path to
Normalcy
Impacts on World Economy medical tools, especially in Africa. The IMF noted
that policies should remain tailored to country-
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) specific circumstances including the extent of
projected in January 2022 that recovery, underlying inflationary pressures and
the global economy would grow by 4.4 percent available policy space. The organization expected
in 2022, down by 0.5 percentage points from global growth to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023,
October 2021's forecast. Growth would slow as largely reflecting a pickup after then drags on
economies grapple with supply disruptions, higher growth dissipate (Xinhua, IMF predicts).
inflation, record debt and persistent uncertainty.
"The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has Given the rapid spread of the Omicron variant,
led to renewed mobility restrictions in many the COVID-19 pandemic continued to disrupt
countries and increased labor shortages," said economic activity in the near term, according to
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who the Global Economic Prospects report in January
was previously the IMF's chief economist. She 2022. Furthermore, notable deceleration in
added that while Omicron would weigh on activity major economies, including the United States
in the first quarter of 2022, this effect would fade and China, had an impact on external demand
starting in the second quarter. "Supply disruptions in their emerging and developing counterparts.
still weigh on activity and are contributing to “The world economy is simultaneously facing
higher inflation," adding to pressures from strong COVID-19, inflation, and policy uncertainty, with
demand and elevated food and energy prices, government spending and monetary policies
said Gopinath. Supply-demand imbalances in uncharted territory. Rising inequality and
was expected to decline over 2022 based on security challenges are particularly harmful
industry expectations of improved supply, as for developing countries,” said David Malpass,
demand gradually rebalances from goods to President of the World Bank Group. “Putting
services, and extraordinary policy support is more countries on a favorable growth path
withdrawn, according to the report. The IMF requires concerted international action and a
repeatedly stressed the divergence in prospects comprehensive set of national policy responses.”
across countries. "While advanced economies The slowdown coincided with a widening
are projected to return to pre-pandemic trend in divergence in growth rates between advanced
2022, several emerging markets and developing and emerging or developing economies.
economies are projected to have sizeable output Meanwhile, rising inflation constrained monetary
losses into the medium-term," Gopinath noted. As policy, with low-income workers particularly
of January 2022, only 4 percent of the populations hit hard. Inflation was running at the highest
of low-income countries were fully vaccinated rates since 2008, both globally and in advanced
versus 70 percent in high-income countries, economies, and reached its highest rate in a
according to the multilateral lender. There is decade in emerging market and developing
an "urgent" need to close the 23.4-billion-US- economies. The report contains analytical
dollar financing gap for the Access to COVID-19 sections that outline three emerging obstacles
Tools Accelerator, a global platform led by the to durable recovery in developing economies.
World Health Organization, and to incentivize It also includes regional outlooks for growth
technological transfers to help speed up the over the next in 2023 and 2024. Mari Pangestu,
diversification of global production of critical the World Bank’s Managing Director for
16
1.1 COVID-19 Pandemic: The Path to
Normalcy
Impacts on World Economy medical tools, especially in Africa. The IMF noted
that policies should remain tailored to country-
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) specific circumstances including the extent of
projected in January 2022 that recovery, underlying inflationary pressures and
the global economy would grow by 4.4 percent available policy space. The organization expected
in 2022, down by 0.5 percentage points from global growth to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023,
October 2021's forecast. Growth would slow as largely reflecting a pickup after then drags on
economies grapple with supply disruptions, higher growth dissipate (Xinhua, IMF predicts).
inflation, record debt and persistent uncertainty.
"The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has Given the rapid spread of the Omicron variant,
led to renewed mobility restrictions in many the COVID-19 pandemic continued to disrupt
countries and increased labor shortages," said economic activity in the near term, according to
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who the Global Economic Prospects report in January
was previously the IMF's chief economist. She 2022. Furthermore, notable deceleration in
added that while Omicron would weigh on activity major economies, including the United States
in the first quarter of 2022, this effect would fade and China, had an impact on external demand
starting in the second quarter. "Supply disruptions in their emerging and developing counterparts.
still weigh on activity and are contributing to “The world economy is simultaneously facing
higher inflation," adding to pressures from strong COVID-19, inflation, and policy uncertainty, with
demand and elevated food and energy prices, government spending and monetary policies
said Gopinath. Supply-demand imbalances in uncharted territory. Rising inequality and
was expected to decline over 2022 based on security challenges are particularly harmful
industry expectations of improved supply, as for developing countries,” said David Malpass,
demand gradually rebalances from goods to President of the World Bank Group. “Putting
services, and extraordinary policy support is more countries on a favorable growth path
withdrawn, according to the report. The IMF requires concerted international action and a
repeatedly stressed the divergence in prospects comprehensive set of national policy responses.”
across countries. "While advanced economies The slowdown coincided with a widening
are projected to return to pre-pandemic trend in divergence in growth rates between advanced
2022, several emerging markets and developing and emerging or developing economies.
economies are projected to have sizeable output Meanwhile, rising inflation constrained monetary
losses into the medium-term," Gopinath noted. As policy, with low-income workers particularly
of January 2022, only 4 percent of the populations hit hard. Inflation was running at the highest
of low-income countries were fully vaccinated rates since 2008, both globally and in advanced
versus 70 percent in high-income countries, economies, and reached its highest rate in a
according to the multilateral lender. There is decade in emerging market and developing
an "urgent" need to close the 23.4-billion-US- economies. The report contains analytical
dollar financing gap for the Access to COVID-19 sections that outline three emerging obstacles
Tools Accelerator, a global platform led by the to durable recovery in developing economies.
World Health Organization, and to incentivize It also includes regional outlooks for growth
technological transfers to help speed up the over the next in 2023 and 2024. Mari Pangestu,
diversification of global production of critical the World Bank’s Managing Director for
16
