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estments and the decline in credit to non-land-holding firms, researchers estimate that a 1%
increase in overall land price led to a 26% loss in firm productivity across all sampled firms.

Falling land prices trigger reverse trends. When the central government introduced measures to
cool the property market in 2010 by restricting housing purchases, researchers observed a reversal
of trends. While rising land prices induced firms to shift toward speculative investments in land,
falling land prices caused by the purchase restriction policy induced firms to switch back to non-land
investments, which in turn directly benefited firms’ core businesses and patenting activities.
Land prices affect investment, patenting, and productivity beyond the property sector. The research
confirms that fluctuations in China’s property market affect firms well beyond the real estate sector.
Rising land prices induce inefficiency by disproportionately channeling asset growth and credit to land-
holding firms — often SOEs — that spend speculatively rather than to more efficient, non-land-holding
firms, which are often privately owned. Negative shocks to the real estate market cause both state-
owned and private firms in a broad cross-section of sectors to invest less but more prudently.

Land prices in 330 sampled cities, 2004–2015 Firm investments, 2000–2015

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