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side of China. Scientists in the U.S. were not of NIH-funded publications and an almost 20%
able to offset their productivity loss by either decline in citation rate in terms of China-
increasing levels of domestic collaboration or funded publications.
increasing collaborations with other countries.
Interviews confirm quantitative
findings. Most of the 12 scientists interviewed
felt affected by the investigations and the
recent U.S.-China tensions, and, as a result,
felt reluctant to start new or continue existing
collaborations with institutions in China. Several
scientists had their NIH funding suspended for
several years. Others mentioned the loss of
access to students and collaborators from China,
labs, and machines that were essential to their
current work. For those not directly affected by
the investigations, some felt they had to choose

Share of U.S. publications undertaken with select international Change in citations of U.S. publications with China collaborators
collaborations (PubMed) relative to those with other foreign collaborators (reference year 2018)

Further analyses found that the science fields between access to U.S. research dollars and
more subject to the NIH investigations produced their collaborations with scientists in China. This
fewer new publications during 2019 and 2020 choice often prompted them to reorient their
relative to the rest of the world, suggesting research toward other topics.
that U.S.-China political tensions affect overall
scientific progress. Political tensions generate chilling effects
for U.S. science. 
Adverse effects across institutions and The results of the quantitative and qualitative
fields; more acute for Asian researchers. The investigations provide evidence that U.S. scientific
analysis found that declines in output for U.S. production and collaboration is sensitive to
scientists collaborating with counterparts in political pressure. The researchers conclude that
China occurred regardless of whether or not the findings are likely to underestimate longer-
their research was funded by the NIH or China. term impacts, since it takes time for the reduction
The decline in scientific productivity was more of new joint projects to appear in the data. As
pronounced in fields with more pre-investigation such, the negative effects of U.S.-China political
NIH funding, such as medical microbiology and tensions on U.S. science, as well as scientific
immunology, and fields with more U.S.-China progress worldwide, may prove even greater in
collaborations, such as materials engineering and the long run.
physical chemistry. The negative trend held true
for scientists at most sampled U.S. institutions of
higher learning.

While both Asian and non-Asian scientists
were adversely affected by the investigations,
publications by scientists of Asian descent who
had historically collaborated with scientists in
China saw a 7% decline in citation rate in terms

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