Page 11 - SCBJ-201611
P. 11
November 2016
though the margin will narrow as the “law-and-order” candidate, a
race gets closer to Election Day just position exemplified by his nomi-
as it did in 2012 between Obama and nation speech at the Republican Convention in
Romney. Within this context, both parties will consolidate Cleveland, while casting Clinton as a “liar”, in reference to the
their respective base, and the race will narrow down to a hand- email controversy, who is unqualified to be president.
ful of swing states that were also in play in 2008 and 2012. Note
that since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without As for the leading political pundits, most are forecasting
winning at least two of three states between Florida, Ohio and a landslide victory for Clinton akin to Barack Obama’s
Pennsylvania. Then the equation comes down to voter demo- victories in 2008 and 2012 with some even seeing shades of
graphics and turnout. Whereas Clinton is aiming to assemble 1984 (Reagan vs. Mondale) and 1988 (Bush vs. Dukakis).
the broad coalition of voters that put Barack Obama into the Among the earlier forecasts, the University of Virginia’s Larry
White House for two terms, Trump’s strategy is markedly dif- Sabato sees a Clinton romp in the making. A year ago, his
ferent. While he will need to parry his losses among key groups forecast showed Democrats with an advantage in states adding
of voters, like women and minorities, for no other reason than up to 247 electoral votes, Republicans with an edge in states
holding a state like Arizona and winning in Florida, Trump’s adding up to 206 and six states totaling 85 votes rated as toss-
almost singular focus is on driving white voter turnout in battle- ups. Today, Sabato sees no states as toss-ups. Instead, he shows
ground states throughout the Rust Belt. In these states, which Clinton with 347 electoral votes and Trump with just 191. The
include Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, white voters Cook Political Report shows a similarly dire map for Trump:
make up an overwhelmingly large portion of the electorate, and 304 electoral votes leaning or solid for Clinton, 190 leaning or
Trump is poised to take in a greater share of these voters than solid for Trump and 44 up for grabs. The four states Cook rated
Romney in 2012 due in large part to his populist economic mes- as toss-ups include three carried by Obama in 2012 (Iowa, New
sage combined with the overall political climate. Hampshire and Ohio) and one carried by Mitt Romney (North
Carolina).
One important factor to consider is the role that external
events, like the recent incidents in Orlando, FL and Dal- The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report offers a
las, TX, will have on the race and polling margins. Elections are more conservative estimate, but one no less daunting for
oftentimes framed and driven by events outside of the candi- Trump and Republicans: 263 leaning or solid for the Demo-
dates’ control, like upticks or downswings in the economy, the crats, 206 for the Republicans and the remaining as toss-ups.
incumbent president’s approval rating, acts of terrorism, and/or The toss-ups in this analysis are Colorado, Florida, Ohio and
domestic unrest, and this year will be no different, particularly Virginia. Consider though that if the five main demographic
when considering the unique contours of this race. The election groups (whites with college degrees, whites without college
of 1968 stands out as a prominent example where dramatic degrees, African Americans, Latinos and Asians) were to shift
domestic disorder helped swing the presidential election to just 3 percentage points towards the GOP in 2016 over what
Republican Richard Nixon, who was widely perceived as the Mitt Romney took in 2012, Republicans would flip nearly every
“law-and-order” candidate. Between Trump and Clinton, the battleground state, including Colo-
key will be which candidate can direct the national discussion rado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire,
and better project an image of commander-in-chief, particularly Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and
as events continue to unfold. Here, the two candidates have Wisconsin.
diverged. For her part, Clinton continues to cast herself as the
more experienced and calculated candidate, while labeling
Trump “dangerous” and “temperamentally unfit” to hold office.
On the other hand, Trump, like Nixon, has called himself the
9
though the margin will narrow as the “law-and-order” candidate, a
race gets closer to Election Day just position exemplified by his nomi-
as it did in 2012 between Obama and nation speech at the Republican Convention in
Romney. Within this context, both parties will consolidate Cleveland, while casting Clinton as a “liar”, in reference to the
their respective base, and the race will narrow down to a hand- email controversy, who is unqualified to be president.
ful of swing states that were also in play in 2008 and 2012. Note
that since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without As for the leading political pundits, most are forecasting
winning at least two of three states between Florida, Ohio and a landslide victory for Clinton akin to Barack Obama’s
Pennsylvania. Then the equation comes down to voter demo- victories in 2008 and 2012 with some even seeing shades of
graphics and turnout. Whereas Clinton is aiming to assemble 1984 (Reagan vs. Mondale) and 1988 (Bush vs. Dukakis).
the broad coalition of voters that put Barack Obama into the Among the earlier forecasts, the University of Virginia’s Larry
White House for two terms, Trump’s strategy is markedly dif- Sabato sees a Clinton romp in the making. A year ago, his
ferent. While he will need to parry his losses among key groups forecast showed Democrats with an advantage in states adding
of voters, like women and minorities, for no other reason than up to 247 electoral votes, Republicans with an edge in states
holding a state like Arizona and winning in Florida, Trump’s adding up to 206 and six states totaling 85 votes rated as toss-
almost singular focus is on driving white voter turnout in battle- ups. Today, Sabato sees no states as toss-ups. Instead, he shows
ground states throughout the Rust Belt. In these states, which Clinton with 347 electoral votes and Trump with just 191. The
include Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, white voters Cook Political Report shows a similarly dire map for Trump:
make up an overwhelmingly large portion of the electorate, and 304 electoral votes leaning or solid for Clinton, 190 leaning or
Trump is poised to take in a greater share of these voters than solid for Trump and 44 up for grabs. The four states Cook rated
Romney in 2012 due in large part to his populist economic mes- as toss-ups include three carried by Obama in 2012 (Iowa, New
sage combined with the overall political climate. Hampshire and Ohio) and one carried by Mitt Romney (North
Carolina).
One important factor to consider is the role that external
events, like the recent incidents in Orlando, FL and Dal- The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report offers a
las, TX, will have on the race and polling margins. Elections are more conservative estimate, but one no less daunting for
oftentimes framed and driven by events outside of the candi- Trump and Republicans: 263 leaning or solid for the Demo-
dates’ control, like upticks or downswings in the economy, the crats, 206 for the Republicans and the remaining as toss-ups.
incumbent president’s approval rating, acts of terrorism, and/or The toss-ups in this analysis are Colorado, Florida, Ohio and
domestic unrest, and this year will be no different, particularly Virginia. Consider though that if the five main demographic
when considering the unique contours of this race. The election groups (whites with college degrees, whites without college
of 1968 stands out as a prominent example where dramatic degrees, African Americans, Latinos and Asians) were to shift
domestic disorder helped swing the presidential election to just 3 percentage points towards the GOP in 2016 over what
Republican Richard Nixon, who was widely perceived as the Mitt Romney took in 2012, Republicans would flip nearly every
“law-and-order” candidate. Between Trump and Clinton, the battleground state, including Colo-
key will be which candidate can direct the national discussion rado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire,
and better project an image of commander-in-chief, particularly Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and
as events continue to unfold. Here, the two candidates have Wisconsin.
diverged. For her part, Clinton continues to cast herself as the
more experienced and calculated candidate, while labeling
Trump “dangerous” and “temperamentally unfit” to hold office.
On the other hand, Trump, like Nixon, has called himself the
9
