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South China Business Journal
COVER STORY The U.S.
Presidential
Race
Forecasting: 2008 and 2012 All Over Again or a Big Surprise?
Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without winning at least two of
three states between Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
At this point in an already unconventional race, it is Obama at this point in 2012. Within their own parties, Clinton
hard to predict how the election will unfold. History sug- is off by 35 points compared to Obama in her image among
gests that in the short periods after the conventions, the polling Democrats, while Trump is off by 20 points in his stand-
average can often move away from the final result, not toward it. ing among Republicans compared to Romney. Obama had a
Take, for example, the 2012 election. President Obama seemed positive image, however slight, among men, women, whites,
to receive a bump in polls from the Democratic convention independents and older Americans at this point in the 2012
and the “47 percent” video of Mitt Romney released by Mother race. Clinton, for her part, has a net-negative image among all
Jones. However, polls tightened again in the month before the those groups. Men alone see her more negatively than positively
election, and President Obama outperformed his polling aver- by 29 percentage points. The picture is similar for Trump, who
ages on Election Day by about three percentage points. In 2008, is underwater by 19 points among men and by a whopping 38
the polls went the opposite direction showing a tight race that points among women. Among minorities, Hispanics in particu-
eventually ballooned into a rout. At this point in the election, lar, Trump has dismal poll numbers though they largely mirror
then-Senator Barack Obama had a narrow lead over Republican those of Romney and McCain at this point in 2012 and 2008
nominee John McCain (R-AZ) following their respective party’s respectively despite widely publicized claims to the contrary.
convention. While the race remained relatively tight through the Specifically, a recent Pew Research poll found Trump trailing
summer, the financial crisis, which began in September 2008, Clinton by 42 percentage points among Hispanics in a general
opened a large rift in the polls that McCain was never able to election matchup, which is on par with the poll’s findings for
close. The final Real Clear Politics average had Obama at +7.6 both Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008. Taken together, this
percent on Election Day, which he narrowly achieved winning overall picture illustrate just how divided the electorate is and
52.9 to 45.6 percent (+7.3 percent). Taken together, the 2008 how difficult it will be forecasting the race.
and 2012 elections illustrate how polling at this point in the
election cycle is oftentimes not indicative of the final outcome, One potential, and very likely, path is that this election
at least in the way of polling and/or margins of victory. follows similar trend lines to the 2008 and 2012 elections
despite all of the unique nuances this cycle. That is to say that
With this context in mind, it is worth looking at where polling, on the whole, will consistently show Clinton outpacing
Trump and Clinton stand compared to Romney and Trump both nationally and across the key battleground states
8
COVER STORY The U.S.
Presidential
Race
Forecasting: 2008 and 2012 All Over Again or a Big Surprise?
Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without winning at least two of
three states between Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
At this point in an already unconventional race, it is Obama at this point in 2012. Within their own parties, Clinton
hard to predict how the election will unfold. History sug- is off by 35 points compared to Obama in her image among
gests that in the short periods after the conventions, the polling Democrats, while Trump is off by 20 points in his stand-
average can often move away from the final result, not toward it. ing among Republicans compared to Romney. Obama had a
Take, for example, the 2012 election. President Obama seemed positive image, however slight, among men, women, whites,
to receive a bump in polls from the Democratic convention independents and older Americans at this point in the 2012
and the “47 percent” video of Mitt Romney released by Mother race. Clinton, for her part, has a net-negative image among all
Jones. However, polls tightened again in the month before the those groups. Men alone see her more negatively than positively
election, and President Obama outperformed his polling aver- by 29 percentage points. The picture is similar for Trump, who
ages on Election Day by about three percentage points. In 2008, is underwater by 19 points among men and by a whopping 38
the polls went the opposite direction showing a tight race that points among women. Among minorities, Hispanics in particu-
eventually ballooned into a rout. At this point in the election, lar, Trump has dismal poll numbers though they largely mirror
then-Senator Barack Obama had a narrow lead over Republican those of Romney and McCain at this point in 2012 and 2008
nominee John McCain (R-AZ) following their respective party’s respectively despite widely publicized claims to the contrary.
convention. While the race remained relatively tight through the Specifically, a recent Pew Research poll found Trump trailing
summer, the financial crisis, which began in September 2008, Clinton by 42 percentage points among Hispanics in a general
opened a large rift in the polls that McCain was never able to election matchup, which is on par with the poll’s findings for
close. The final Real Clear Politics average had Obama at +7.6 both Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008. Taken together, this
percent on Election Day, which he narrowly achieved winning overall picture illustrate just how divided the electorate is and
52.9 to 45.6 percent (+7.3 percent). Taken together, the 2008 how difficult it will be forecasting the race.
and 2012 elections illustrate how polling at this point in the
election cycle is oftentimes not indicative of the final outcome, One potential, and very likely, path is that this election
at least in the way of polling and/or margins of victory. follows similar trend lines to the 2008 and 2012 elections
despite all of the unique nuances this cycle. That is to say that
With this context in mind, it is worth looking at where polling, on the whole, will consistently show Clinton outpacing
Trump and Clinton stand compared to Romney and Trump both nationally and across the key battleground states
8
