Page 16 - SCBJ-201604
P. 16
South China Business Journal
HIGHLIGHT on American companies and households President George W. Bush, has said that either and will ultimately depend on the
equal to 1.5 percent of GDP – 1.3 percent he opposes TPP “in its current form.” partisan balance in Congress and which
from the 45 percent tariff on Chinese party controls the White House. While
products and another 0.3 points from the Even if leadership agrees to bring TPP up Trump is considered a wild card in the
35 percent tariff on goods made in Mexico for a vote following the elections, there trade debate, Clinton could shift back
by American firms. is no guarantee that the support will be towards a more pro-trade stance after she
there even under a simple majority vote clinches the nomination, which would
Disagreements over TPP’s text reflect as provided for under TPA. Already House smooth TPP’s passage. After all, Clinton
the political realities of passage of the Speaker Paul Ryan has backtracked on and Obama both criticized free trade
agreement. Given the fact that anti- trade his previous optimism that a deal could agreements in the 2008 election, before
rhetoric is clearly resonating among be reached and acknowledged that there backing them as president and secretary
voters, as evidenced by polling from the are not enough votes in the House to push of state. The same logic also applies to Ted
ongoing presidential primaries, GOP the agreement through. For pro-trade Cruz, should he emerge as the eventual
leadership in Congress is unwilling Democrats, big labor has vowed to oppose GOP nominee. Though he continues to
to push TPP ratification until at least if not directly campaign against any speak out against TPP on the campaign
the “lame duck” session following the member supporting TPP. For Republicans, stump, Cruz previously backed TPA even
elections on November 8th. The basis Trump’s continued march to the co-authoring an op-ed in the Wall Street
for this is that the incoming while the nomination will only serve to embolden Journal in support of the legislation. This
GOP has a firm hold on the House, their detractors in the Republican Party and suggests Cruz’ opposition, like Clinton’s,
majority in the Senate is much more potentially win over new converts, which is grounded in the political realities of the
precarious. Republicans have 24 seats could further delay, if not block, TPP’s ongoing primary contests.
to defend - including seven in states ratification. In a troubling sign for TPP
that President Barack Obama won in supporters, this trend has already started Looking ahead to the Doorknock in June,
2012 - versus 10 for Democrats, who only to unfold. Just recently, Rep. Tom Reed APCAC delegates will need to be ready to
have to pick up a net gain of five seats (R-NY) joined 19 other House members in discuss the immediate need
to clinch a Senate majority. The issue a letter outlining their “firm opposition” for TPP from both an economic and
for the GOP is that several of the most to TPP. Reed, who is a Trump supporter, geopolitical perspective. Within this
vulnerable seats are in Illinois, Ohio and is a previous backer of free trade deals discussion, it will be imperative to provide
Pennsylvania, where trade is a hot button who also voted for TPA. Other known specific examples of how free trade
issue. In Ohio, for example, a majority of Trump supporters like Representatives agreements, like KORUS, help level the
Republicans and Democrats believe trade Scott DesJerlais (R-TN), Lou Barletta competitive playing field and open new
costs jobs, according to exit polls from (R-PA), and Tom Marino (R-PA) voted for doors for U.S. businesses. Conversely,
the March 15th presidential primary. Not TPA and the three most recent free trade delegates should also be prepared to
surprisingly, trade has become a central agreements but have not publicly staked illustrate how the U.S. risks falling behind
issue in the ongoing Senate race with the out a position on TPP. both strategically and economically in the
candidates sparring over whether free Asia-Pacific, should Congress not ratify
trade has created higher paying jobs or In conclusion, between building TPP.
devastated Ohio’s manufacturing base. controversy to various provisions in the
Ted Strickland, the Democratic nominee, agreement, to a shortened congressional
has aggressively attacked incumbent calendar, to election year politics, it is
Republican Rob Portman for his support clear that TPP will not be brought up for
of past trade pacts and vote on TPA a vote before the November elections.
legislation. For his part, Portman, who Taking up the pact in the lame duck
was U.S. Trade Representative under session of Congress is no guarantee
14
HIGHLIGHT on American companies and households President George W. Bush, has said that either and will ultimately depend on the
equal to 1.5 percent of GDP – 1.3 percent he opposes TPP “in its current form.” partisan balance in Congress and which
from the 45 percent tariff on Chinese party controls the White House. While
products and another 0.3 points from the Even if leadership agrees to bring TPP up Trump is considered a wild card in the
35 percent tariff on goods made in Mexico for a vote following the elections, there trade debate, Clinton could shift back
by American firms. is no guarantee that the support will be towards a more pro-trade stance after she
there even under a simple majority vote clinches the nomination, which would
Disagreements over TPP’s text reflect as provided for under TPA. Already House smooth TPP’s passage. After all, Clinton
the political realities of passage of the Speaker Paul Ryan has backtracked on and Obama both criticized free trade
agreement. Given the fact that anti- trade his previous optimism that a deal could agreements in the 2008 election, before
rhetoric is clearly resonating among be reached and acknowledged that there backing them as president and secretary
voters, as evidenced by polling from the are not enough votes in the House to push of state. The same logic also applies to Ted
ongoing presidential primaries, GOP the agreement through. For pro-trade Cruz, should he emerge as the eventual
leadership in Congress is unwilling Democrats, big labor has vowed to oppose GOP nominee. Though he continues to
to push TPP ratification until at least if not directly campaign against any speak out against TPP on the campaign
the “lame duck” session following the member supporting TPP. For Republicans, stump, Cruz previously backed TPA even
elections on November 8th. The basis Trump’s continued march to the co-authoring an op-ed in the Wall Street
for this is that the incoming while the nomination will only serve to embolden Journal in support of the legislation. This
GOP has a firm hold on the House, their detractors in the Republican Party and suggests Cruz’ opposition, like Clinton’s,
majority in the Senate is much more potentially win over new converts, which is grounded in the political realities of the
precarious. Republicans have 24 seats could further delay, if not block, TPP’s ongoing primary contests.
to defend - including seven in states ratification. In a troubling sign for TPP
that President Barack Obama won in supporters, this trend has already started Looking ahead to the Doorknock in June,
2012 - versus 10 for Democrats, who only to unfold. Just recently, Rep. Tom Reed APCAC delegates will need to be ready to
have to pick up a net gain of five seats (R-NY) joined 19 other House members in discuss the immediate need
to clinch a Senate majority. The issue a letter outlining their “firm opposition” for TPP from both an economic and
for the GOP is that several of the most to TPP. Reed, who is a Trump supporter, geopolitical perspective. Within this
vulnerable seats are in Illinois, Ohio and is a previous backer of free trade deals discussion, it will be imperative to provide
Pennsylvania, where trade is a hot button who also voted for TPA. Other known specific examples of how free trade
issue. In Ohio, for example, a majority of Trump supporters like Representatives agreements, like KORUS, help level the
Republicans and Democrats believe trade Scott DesJerlais (R-TN), Lou Barletta competitive playing field and open new
costs jobs, according to exit polls from (R-PA), and Tom Marino (R-PA) voted for doors for U.S. businesses. Conversely,
the March 15th presidential primary. Not TPA and the three most recent free trade delegates should also be prepared to
surprisingly, trade has become a central agreements but have not publicly staked illustrate how the U.S. risks falling behind
issue in the ongoing Senate race with the out a position on TPP. both strategically and economically in the
candidates sparring over whether free Asia-Pacific, should Congress not ratify
trade has created higher paying jobs or In conclusion, between building TPP.
devastated Ohio’s manufacturing base. controversy to various provisions in the
Ted Strickland, the Democratic nominee, agreement, to a shortened congressional
has aggressively attacked incumbent calendar, to election year politics, it is
Republican Rob Portman for his support clear that TPP will not be brought up for
of past trade pacts and vote on TPA a vote before the November elections.
legislation. For his part, Portman, who Taking up the pact in the lame duck
was U.S. Trade Representative under session of Congress is no guarantee
14
