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April 2016
would do little to bring factory work
back to America.” On the opposite end
of the spectrum, several development
economists have argued that free trade
is one of the best tools the U.S. has for
fighting extreme poverty and reversing
course would negatively impact millions of
people around the world.
the campaign trail. Those focused on the Economists who have studied the TPP On the campaign stump, the presidential
issue argue that currency manipulation carefully argue that the perception that contenders have been quick to capitalize
is one of the key driving forces behind the agreement will lead to continued job on the controversy surrounding free trade
the high and rapidly rising U.S. trade losses and other detrimental economic and TPP. For Democrats, frontrunner
deficit with the 11 other members of the impacts is misplaced. Take, for example, Hillary Clinton has had to backtrack from
TPP. According to some estimates, the a recent report published by the Peterson her previous support of the agreement in
U.S. deficit with TPP countries translated Institute, arguably the foremost authority a bid to stave off a continued challenge
into 2 million U.S. jobs lost in 2015, more on TPP. The report concludes that from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders,
than half (1.1 million) of which were in between 2017 and 2026, when TPP who scored a major upset victory in
manufacturing. Though Congress passed, would have its major impact, the costs to Michigan behind strong support from
and the President signed, legislation displaced workers would be 6 percent of voters concerned about the impact of
streamlining trade rules that aim to keep the benefits to the economy — or an 18-to- trade on the economy. Clinton’s evolving
importers from avoiding U.S. antidumping 1 benefit-to-cost ratio. Other economists position also reflects support for her
and countervailing duties and provides argue that the stakes are simply too high campaign among labor unions, which are
more tools to identify and address for the U.S. to not ratify the TPP. David opposed to the pact. For Republicans,
currency manipulation, opponents argue Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson frontrunner Trump, and to a lesser extent
that it does not go far enough in assuaging outlined this position last year arguing Ted Cruz, has focused the majority of
concerns about TPP. Specifically, the that although import competition helped his criticism not on TPP specifically
legislation stops short of sanctions on produce a “momentous decline” in U.S. but rather how past trade deals have
currency manipulation, but does allow the manufacturing, “We believe blocking undercut the manufacturing sector, led
U.S. to bar countries from trade deals and the TPP on fears of globalization would to job cuts and depressed wages, and
government procurement contracts if they be a mistake.” They noted that the pact contributed to an overall trade imbalance
artificially devalue their currencies to gain would promote trade in knowledge with countries like China. Among other
a competitive advantage through cheaper industries where the United States has a proposals, Trump has called for rolling
exports. big advantage and that “killing the TPP back NAFTA and imposing a 35 percent
tariff on goods made in Mexico by U.S.
firms in addition to a 45 percent across-
the-board tariff on manufactured imports
from China. Analysts have warned against
such measures arguing that they would
not only lead to a trade war but also a
sharp decrease in imports. This would in
turn, the argument goes, amount to a tax
13
would do little to bring factory work
back to America.” On the opposite end
of the spectrum, several development
economists have argued that free trade
is one of the best tools the U.S. has for
fighting extreme poverty and reversing
course would negatively impact millions of
people around the world.
the campaign trail. Those focused on the Economists who have studied the TPP On the campaign stump, the presidential
issue argue that currency manipulation carefully argue that the perception that contenders have been quick to capitalize
is one of the key driving forces behind the agreement will lead to continued job on the controversy surrounding free trade
the high and rapidly rising U.S. trade losses and other detrimental economic and TPP. For Democrats, frontrunner
deficit with the 11 other members of the impacts is misplaced. Take, for example, Hillary Clinton has had to backtrack from
TPP. According to some estimates, the a recent report published by the Peterson her previous support of the agreement in
U.S. deficit with TPP countries translated Institute, arguably the foremost authority a bid to stave off a continued challenge
into 2 million U.S. jobs lost in 2015, more on TPP. The report concludes that from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders,
than half (1.1 million) of which were in between 2017 and 2026, when TPP who scored a major upset victory in
manufacturing. Though Congress passed, would have its major impact, the costs to Michigan behind strong support from
and the President signed, legislation displaced workers would be 6 percent of voters concerned about the impact of
streamlining trade rules that aim to keep the benefits to the economy — or an 18-to- trade on the economy. Clinton’s evolving
importers from avoiding U.S. antidumping 1 benefit-to-cost ratio. Other economists position also reflects support for her
and countervailing duties and provides argue that the stakes are simply too high campaign among labor unions, which are
more tools to identify and address for the U.S. to not ratify the TPP. David opposed to the pact. For Republicans,
currency manipulation, opponents argue Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson frontrunner Trump, and to a lesser extent
that it does not go far enough in assuaging outlined this position last year arguing Ted Cruz, has focused the majority of
concerns about TPP. Specifically, the that although import competition helped his criticism not on TPP specifically
legislation stops short of sanctions on produce a “momentous decline” in U.S. but rather how past trade deals have
currency manipulation, but does allow the manufacturing, “We believe blocking undercut the manufacturing sector, led
U.S. to bar countries from trade deals and the TPP on fears of globalization would to job cuts and depressed wages, and
government procurement contracts if they be a mistake.” They noted that the pact contributed to an overall trade imbalance
artificially devalue their currencies to gain would promote trade in knowledge with countries like China. Among other
a competitive advantage through cheaper industries where the United States has a proposals, Trump has called for rolling
exports. big advantage and that “killing the TPP back NAFTA and imposing a 35 percent
tariff on goods made in Mexico by U.S.
firms in addition to a 45 percent across-
the-board tariff on manufactured imports
from China. Analysts have warned against
such measures arguing that they would
not only lead to a trade war but also a
sharp decrease in imports. This would in
turn, the argument goes, amount to a tax
13
