Page 13 - SCBJ-201604
P. 13
April 2016
shows the former Secretary of State ahead
by double digits in a hypothetical head-
to- head matchup. However, Trump’s
unorthodox positions on a range of issues,
including trade, has the potential to
shakeup the electoral map, a point Trump
continuously makes on the campaign trail.
More specifically, the idea is that Trump’s
economic agenda, of which opposition to
current U.S. trade policy is a key plank,
will allow his campaign to build a similar
coalition akin to that assembled by
Reagan during his presidency (i.e. Reagan
Democrats) and compete in a broader
range of states.
on imported goods, and 82 percent said and Sanders’ message on trade has helped While Trump must hold all of the states
they would be willing to pay “a little propel them to victories across states Romney carried in 2012 in addition to
more” for domestically produced goods. where once powerful industries have given Florida, his campaign will have to be
Taken together, these results show that way in the face of trade liberalization competitive elsewhere to cross the 270
Americans hold largely contradicting and a host of other economic factors. In Electoral College vote threshold to win
views of free trade. This unique political Michigan, for example, Sanders pulled a the presidency. This brings us to the Rust
environment, in turn, has allowed surprise upset against Hillary Clinton with Belt, where Trump has already performed
politicians at all levels of government to a tough message on trade that sold well in well among the high concentrations of
play both sides of the trade debate, as a state where large swaths of
dictated by regional and/or state-specific the auto-dependent economy
circumstances. never recovered from the
Great Recession. Michigan
Against this polling backdrop, outsider Republicans gave Trump an
presidential candidates in the likes of easy win as well. In an exit
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have poll, 55% of Republicans
turned the political world upside down agreed that trade kills U.S.
behind a wave of populist support from jobs. Among Democrats, 57%
voters angry with Washington and the thought the same.
slow pace of economic recovery. With the
Democratic and Republican nominating While the trade issue
contests moving into the country’s continues to play an
industrial heartland, both candidates important role in the
have been successful in capturing public presidential nominating
sentiment by criticizing globalization contest, it could also have
and free trade, which they contend hurt a material impact on the
average American workers by depressing general election as well. As
wages and off-shoring jobs. Their the race stands now, most
positions on trade stand in stark contrast pundits believe that the
to those of Ohio Governor John Kasich, GOP frontrunner, Donald
a Republican candidate, who is widely Trump, would be an underdog
considered the only contender on both against Hillary Clinton, the
sides of the aisle to fully embrace free presumptive Democratic
trade throughout the primaries. Trump nominee. Current polling
11
shows the former Secretary of State ahead
by double digits in a hypothetical head-
to- head matchup. However, Trump’s
unorthodox positions on a range of issues,
including trade, has the potential to
shakeup the electoral map, a point Trump
continuously makes on the campaign trail.
More specifically, the idea is that Trump’s
economic agenda, of which opposition to
current U.S. trade policy is a key plank,
will allow his campaign to build a similar
coalition akin to that assembled by
Reagan during his presidency (i.e. Reagan
Democrats) and compete in a broader
range of states.
on imported goods, and 82 percent said and Sanders’ message on trade has helped While Trump must hold all of the states
they would be willing to pay “a little propel them to victories across states Romney carried in 2012 in addition to
more” for domestically produced goods. where once powerful industries have given Florida, his campaign will have to be
Taken together, these results show that way in the face of trade liberalization competitive elsewhere to cross the 270
Americans hold largely contradicting and a host of other economic factors. In Electoral College vote threshold to win
views of free trade. This unique political Michigan, for example, Sanders pulled a the presidency. This brings us to the Rust
environment, in turn, has allowed surprise upset against Hillary Clinton with Belt, where Trump has already performed
politicians at all levels of government to a tough message on trade that sold well in well among the high concentrations of
play both sides of the trade debate, as a state where large swaths of
dictated by regional and/or state-specific the auto-dependent economy
circumstances. never recovered from the
Great Recession. Michigan
Against this polling backdrop, outsider Republicans gave Trump an
presidential candidates in the likes of easy win as well. In an exit
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have poll, 55% of Republicans
turned the political world upside down agreed that trade kills U.S.
behind a wave of populist support from jobs. Among Democrats, 57%
voters angry with Washington and the thought the same.
slow pace of economic recovery. With the
Democratic and Republican nominating While the trade issue
contests moving into the country’s continues to play an
industrial heartland, both candidates important role in the
have been successful in capturing public presidential nominating
sentiment by criticizing globalization contest, it could also have
and free trade, which they contend hurt a material impact on the
average American workers by depressing general election as well. As
wages and off-shoring jobs. Their the race stands now, most
positions on trade stand in stark contrast pundits believe that the
to those of Ohio Governor John Kasich, GOP frontrunner, Donald
a Republican candidate, who is widely Trump, would be an underdog
considered the only contender on both against Hillary Clinton, the
sides of the aisle to fully embrace free presumptive Democratic
trade throughout the primaries. Trump nominee. Current polling
11
