Page 24 - SCBJ-201512
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South China Business Journal

HIGHLIGHTS  Trade on Capitol Hill

As with TPA legislation, successful Senate remains the same moving into (Democrats control 44 seats directly;
passage of the TPP free trade 2016, the landscape in the House will be however, two independents, Bernie
agreement will require a coalition of much different then when the body voted Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of
Republicans and Democrats in both the on TPA. Most notably, Paul Ryan (R-WI), Maine, caucus with the party). In 2016,
House and Senate. In June, 28 Democrats the former Chairman of the Ways & Democrats need only gain a net of five
in the House and 13 Democrats in the Means Committee, replaces John Boehner seats to regain a majority in the chamber.
Senate joined with Republicans to pass as Speaker with Kevin Brady (R-TX) They hold a natural advantage having
TPA by 218 and 60 votes respectively. taking over on Ways & Means. Both Ryan only to defend 10 seats compared to the
This time around, only a simple majority and Brady are strong free trade advocates. GOP’s 24. A change in party control would
(51) will be required in the Senate given In the Senate, the situation appears
that TPA rules prohibit amendment, to be more precarious with leadership undoubtedly have a
filibuster and other procedural tactics. indicating a vote on the agreement may significant impact on
Note, however, there are ongoing not occur until after the 2016 elections. negotiations though it is
discussions for “stripping” TPP of fast worth remembering a
If the agreement is not put to a vote
track procedures and protections. before November 2016, the outcome of simple majority vote
the elections could also prove to be a (51) is all that is
While the leadership significant factor. The presidential required under TPA. 3
structure in election aside, Republicans hold
the a slim 54 to 46 seat advantage
over Democrats in the Senate

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