Page 9 - 2022 Special Report on the State of Business in South China

ving the country more exposed to spending
by western shoppers. Western demand for items
such as laptops, furniture and bikes boomed.
The export surge has been good for China in the
short term, helping keep growth solid throughout
the pandemic, but it is worsening an economic
imbalance that Chinese leaders are struggling
to address as the pandemic approaches its third
year. Unlike the US, which saw a rapid rebound in
consumer spending during the pandemic, China
has seen consumption stay subdued. Retail sales
still aren?? growing as rapidly as they were before
Covid-19. The most recent figures, for September,
rose by 4.4% from a year earlier, well below the 8%
pace in the full year of 2019. The weakness owes
partly to the fact China didn?? dish out stimulus
money like the US did, so its consumers weren??
flush with extra cash. It also reflects a longer-term
trend toward more saving, with many Chinese
people deciding to sock away money during a
time of uncertainty??specially with lingering
fears of outbreaks. With all the problems facing
this world and the uniquely historic relationship
between China and the US, the 18th edition of our
Special Report reminds us of the overwhelming
positiveness of American companies to continue to
invest and contribute to the growth of China. It may
be time to take another look at that sock drawer.
Last year, AmCham South China predicted a
GDP growth slowdown in the last quarter of 2023
and all of 2024 due to a lower number of planned
projects of over US$250 million. This year?? 2022
Special Report on the State of Business in South
China shows an increase of reinvestments in large
projects of US$250 million or more having taken
place in 2021 and also our study shows an increase
in budgeting for large projects in 2022. Therefore,
we have updated our prediction to show that the
slowdown in China?? GDP growth will still happen
in the last quarter of 2023 but will be alleviated by
mid-2024. From the Special Report: The number of
companies which actually each reinvested US$250
million or more in 2021 grew from 5% to 10%. The
number of companies that will reinvest more than
US$250 million is 10%, a 5% increase compared to
last year.
China is likely to switch its focus to supporting
economic growth in 2022 after regulatory
crackdowns that encompassed property,
education, technology and coal use in 2021. The
government tightened regulatory oversight in
2021 to step up efforts to rebalance long-term
growth and in response to growing tensions with
the United States. However, the crackdown has
exposed risks to China?? growth model, which
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