Page 9 - 2022 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
P. 9
ving the country more exposed to spending 其在对疫情担忧的情况下，大多数民众选择存钱，而非
by western shoppers. Western demand for items 消费。我们在第18版《特别报告》中，通过分析全球面临
such as laptops, furniture and bikes boomed. 的所有问题以及中美之间独特的历史关系，表明大多
The export surge has been good for China in the 数美国公司仍将继续对华投资，并且对中国的发展仍
short term, helping keep growth solid throughout 持积极态度。也许我们应该从另一角度看待这个问题。
the pandemic, but it is worsening an economic
imbalance that Chinese leaders are struggling 据华南美国商会去年的预测，由于超2.5亿美元的
to address as the pandemic approaches its third 大型项目的数量减少，2023年第四季度和2024年全年
year. Unlike the US, which saw a rapid rebound in 的GDP增长将放缓。今年的《2022年华南地区经济情
consumer spending during the pandemic, China 况特别报告》显示，2021年启动的超2.5亿美元大型项
has seen consumption stay subdued. Retail sales 目将增加投资额，而且我们的研究表明2022年大型项
still aren’t growing as rapidly as they were before 目的预算也将增加。因此，我们更新了预测，到2023年
Covid-19. The most recent figures, for September, 第四季度中国GDP增长将放缓，但到2024年年中，这一
rose by 4.4% from a year earlier, well below the 8% 情况将得到好转。据《特别报告》，2021年实际再投资超
pace in the full year of 2019. The weakness owes 2.5亿美元的公司数量从5%增加到10%，而计划再投
partly to the fact China didn’t dish out stimulus 资超2.5亿美元的公司数量为10%，较去年增加5%。
money like the US did, so its consumers weren’t
flush with extra cash. It also reflects a longer-term 2021年，中国加强了对房地产、教育、技术和煤炭
trend toward more saving, with many Chinese 行业的监管，2022年预计将侧重经济增长。2021年的
people deciding to sock away money during a 监管措施旨在重新平衡长期增长，及应对与美国日益
time of uncertainty—especially with lingering 紧张的局势。但是，过严的监管措施也会给经济增长带
fears of outbreaks. With all the problems facing 来风险，应审慎处理和解决矛盾。中国第三季度经济增
this world and the uniquely historic relationship 长同比增长4.9%，低于第二季度的7.9%。预计会出台
between China and the US, the 18th edition of our 更多监管措施，但确保GDP至少5%增长目标仍是当前
Special Report reminds us of the overwhelming 工作的重中之重，任何可能破坏现状的重大变化应该
positiveness of American companies to continue to 避免。政府将更关注与民生休戚相关的领域，如教育、
invest and contribute to the growth of China. It may 医疗、养老和住房等领域。
be time to take another look at that sock drawer.
诚然，中美存在着巨大分歧，但2022年两国不太
Last year, AmCham South China predicted a 可能真的“撕破脸”。2022年，美国面临中期选举、新冠
GDP growth slowdown in the last quarter of 2023 病毒变异、内部分裂等各种国内问题，暂时无暇集中精
and all of 2024 due to a lower number of planned 力处理中美关系。中美两国或许都希望暂缓当前的贸
projects of over US$250 million. This year’s 2022 易紧张局势。在接下来的10个月里，中国国家主席习
Special Report on the State of Business in South 近平将制定一系列方针政策。此外，习主席还将出席两
China shows an increase of reinvestments in large 项重大活动：2月份的冬奥会和秋季的中共二十大会
projects of US$250 million or more having taken 议。北京冬奥运将展示中国组织国际体育赛事的能力，
place in 2021 and also our study shows an increase 以及应对新冠疫情的成效。此外，中共二十大会议具有
in budgeting for large projects in 2022. Therefore, 重要意义，习主席有望再次当选，继续领导全党全国人
we have updated our prediction to show that the 民发展经济，建设美丽中国。
slowdown in China’s GDP growth will still happen
in the last quarter of 2023 but will be alleviated by 暂停中美紧张局势也许是最明智的决定，这样双
mid-2024. From the Special Report: The number of 方都可以聚焦发展国内经济。中美两国可以携手推动
companies which actually each reinvested US$250 解决共同关注的问题：全球气候变化。正如彭博社去年
million or more in 2021 grew from 5% to 10%. The 年底所报道，尽管中美在限排、海洋酸化、过度捕捞和
number of companies that will reinvest more than 极地冰川融化的时间和措施方面并非都达成一致，但
US$250 million is 10%, a 5% increase compared to 两国有时也会共同呼吁全球国家一起采取行动。明年
last year. 将是美国前国务卿约翰•克里大力推动中美两国就具
体下一步努力达成一致的好时机。
China is likely to switch its focus to supporting
economic growth in 2022 after regulatory
crackdowns that encompassed property,
education, technology and coal use in 2021. The
government tightened regulatory oversight in
2021 to step up efforts to rebalance long-term
growth and in response to growing tensions with
the United States. However, the crackdown has
exposed risks to China’s growth model, which
9
by western shoppers. Western demand for items 消费。我们在第18版《特别报告》中，通过分析全球面临
such as laptops, furniture and bikes boomed. 的所有问题以及中美之间独特的历史关系，表明大多
The export surge has been good for China in the 数美国公司仍将继续对华投资，并且对中国的发展仍
short term, helping keep growth solid throughout 持积极态度。也许我们应该从另一角度看待这个问题。
the pandemic, but it is worsening an economic
imbalance that Chinese leaders are struggling 据华南美国商会去年的预测，由于超2.5亿美元的
to address as the pandemic approaches its third 大型项目的数量减少，2023年第四季度和2024年全年
year. Unlike the US, which saw a rapid rebound in 的GDP增长将放缓。今年的《2022年华南地区经济情
consumer spending during the pandemic, China 况特别报告》显示，2021年启动的超2.5亿美元大型项
has seen consumption stay subdued. Retail sales 目将增加投资额，而且我们的研究表明2022年大型项
still aren’t growing as rapidly as they were before 目的预算也将增加。因此，我们更新了预测，到2023年
Covid-19. The most recent figures, for September, 第四季度中国GDP增长将放缓，但到2024年年中，这一
rose by 4.4% from a year earlier, well below the 8% 情况将得到好转。据《特别报告》，2021年实际再投资超
pace in the full year of 2019. The weakness owes 2.5亿美元的公司数量从5%增加到10%，而计划再投
partly to the fact China didn’t dish out stimulus 资超2.5亿美元的公司数量为10%，较去年增加5%。
money like the US did, so its consumers weren’t
flush with extra cash. It also reflects a longer-term 2021年，中国加强了对房地产、教育、技术和煤炭
trend toward more saving, with many Chinese 行业的监管，2022年预计将侧重经济增长。2021年的
people deciding to sock away money during a 监管措施旨在重新平衡长期增长，及应对与美国日益
time of uncertainty—especially with lingering 紧张的局势。但是，过严的监管措施也会给经济增长带
fears of outbreaks. With all the problems facing 来风险，应审慎处理和解决矛盾。中国第三季度经济增
this world and the uniquely historic relationship 长同比增长4.9%，低于第二季度的7.9%。预计会出台
between China and the US, the 18th edition of our 更多监管措施，但确保GDP至少5%增长目标仍是当前
Special Report reminds us of the overwhelming 工作的重中之重，任何可能破坏现状的重大变化应该
positiveness of American companies to continue to 避免。政府将更关注与民生休戚相关的领域，如教育、
invest and contribute to the growth of China. It may 医疗、养老和住房等领域。
be time to take another look at that sock drawer.
诚然，中美存在着巨大分歧，但2022年两国不太
Last year, AmCham South China predicted a 可能真的“撕破脸”。2022年，美国面临中期选举、新冠
GDP growth slowdown in the last quarter of 2023 病毒变异、内部分裂等各种国内问题，暂时无暇集中精
and all of 2024 due to a lower number of planned 力处理中美关系。中美两国或许都希望暂缓当前的贸
projects of over US$250 million. This year’s 2022 易紧张局势。在接下来的10个月里，中国国家主席习
Special Report on the State of Business in South 近平将制定一系列方针政策。此外，习主席还将出席两
China shows an increase of reinvestments in large 项重大活动：2月份的冬奥会和秋季的中共二十大会
projects of US$250 million or more having taken 议。北京冬奥运将展示中国组织国际体育赛事的能力，
place in 2021 and also our study shows an increase 以及应对新冠疫情的成效。此外，中共二十大会议具有
in budgeting for large projects in 2022. Therefore, 重要意义，习主席有望再次当选，继续领导全党全国人
we have updated our prediction to show that the 民发展经济，建设美丽中国。
slowdown in China’s GDP growth will still happen
in the last quarter of 2023 but will be alleviated by 暂停中美紧张局势也许是最明智的决定，这样双
mid-2024. From the Special Report: The number of 方都可以聚焦发展国内经济。中美两国可以携手推动
companies which actually each reinvested US$250 解决共同关注的问题：全球气候变化。正如彭博社去年
million or more in 2021 grew from 5% to 10%. The 年底所报道，尽管中美在限排、海洋酸化、过度捕捞和
number of companies that will reinvest more than 极地冰川融化的时间和措施方面并非都达成一致，但
US$250 million is 10%, a 5% increase compared to 两国有时也会共同呼吁全球国家一起采取行动。明年
last year. 将是美国前国务卿约翰•克里大力推动中美两国就具
体下一步努力达成一致的好时机。
China is likely to switch its focus to supporting
economic growth in 2022 after regulatory
crackdowns that encompassed property,
education, technology and coal use in 2021. The
government tightened regulatory oversight in
2021 to step up efforts to rebalance long-term
growth and in response to growing tensions with
the United States. However, the crackdown has
exposed risks to China’s growth model, which
9
