Page 10 - 2022 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
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requires careful management of conflicting goals. 也许中美两国可以作出更多努力来避免两国陷入
China’s economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter 敌对关系的境地。现在正是两国共同向前看的时候，而
of 2021 compared with a year earlier, down from 不应揪着过去不放。中美两国应在全球事务中起到引
the 7.9% growth seen in the second quarter. 领作用，推动全球有效地应对疫情。有人认为，人类将
While there could be more regulatory measures, 在很长一段时间内与新冠病毒的各种变异株共存。我
policymakers are likely to focus on defending a 们的世界正变得拥挤不堪，城市人口密度大，到处充满
minimum 5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth 来自世界各地的游客，也许会随时引发另一场疫情。
target and avoid making drastic changes that could
upset the status quo. More likely, policymakers will 今年也许不会有重大公告发布，但中美两国关系
pick areas with less political resistance and lower 的改善应当正在酝酿中。两国政府应认识到，美国企
growth impact. For instance, they could endeavor 业在华投资热情不减。根据我们发布的《2022特别报
to make education, health care, elderly care and 告》，自我们发布该报告伊始，中国已连续18年成为
public housing more accessible to ordinary people. 最受欢迎的投资目的地。绝大多数受访企业选择中国
作为投资目的地之一。企业仍对中国市场充满信心，
It is true that the US and China have a deep 没有受访企业表示要完全撤离中国。值得注意的是，
barrel of disagreements, but 2022 will probably 欧洲和北美市场对今年撤出中国的投资具有更大吸
not be the year the two countries hang out their 引力。约72%的企业计划未来三年在中国扩张业务，
dirty laundry. Washington will be distracted by 较去年增加7%。
midterm elections, Covid mutations, sharp internal
discord and other internal fish that need to be 在第二次世界大战期间，德军企图跨过英吉利海
fried before taking the time to consider all the 峡，英国面临巨大的生存危机。英国首相丘吉尔说：“成
aspects of its relationship with China. It’s possible 功不是终点；失败也并非末日，重要的是继续前进的勇
both the US and China may want to just take a 气。”当习近平主席和拜登总统都准备好谈判时，对话
breather concerning their current trade conflict. 必将重启。总有一天，固守在蓓蕾中的风险会比勇敢绽
Over the next 10 months, President Xi Jinping 放时所承受的风险更令人痛苦。众里寻他千百度，成功
needs to make a few checks on his honey-do-list 却往往降临在无暇寻找它的人身上。
as well. More important than wrestling with the US
over trade specifics, President Xi will attend two
national events: the February Winter Olympics and
the mid-fall 20th Communist Party Congress. At
the Beijing games, China will seek to demonstrate
its mastery of both global spectacle and Covid-19.
Even more important, President Xi will want a
quiet runup to the party congress — where he is
expected to gain another five-year term as leader,
elevating him to the historic level of Mao Zedong
and Deng Xiaoping.
Perhaps it would be appropriate for both
countries to hit the pause button so that they
both can have a little me-time of self-reflection.
Perhaps they could use the time to advance an
effort that both countries ultimately support:
mitigating climate change. As Bloomberg noted
late last year, while the US and China have not
always seen eye to eye on timing and methods for
limiting emissions, ocean acidification, overfishing
and polar ice-melting, they have at times broadly
joined arms to pull the rest of the world along. The
coming year would be a good time to support John
Kerry’s energetic push to get the two nations to
agree on concrete next steps.
Before all the environmental hand-shaking
and back-slapping end, perhaps the two countries
could do one more thing. It is time for the countries
to actually look forward together rather than
look back apart. Both countries need to play the
10
China’s economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter 敌对关系的境地。现在正是两国共同向前看的时候，而
of 2021 compared with a year earlier, down from 不应揪着过去不放。中美两国应在全球事务中起到引
the 7.9% growth seen in the second quarter. 领作用，推动全球有效地应对疫情。有人认为，人类将
While there could be more regulatory measures, 在很长一段时间内与新冠病毒的各种变异株共存。我
policymakers are likely to focus on defending a 们的世界正变得拥挤不堪，城市人口密度大，到处充满
minimum 5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth 来自世界各地的游客，也许会随时引发另一场疫情。
target and avoid making drastic changes that could
upset the status quo. More likely, policymakers will 今年也许不会有重大公告发布，但中美两国关系
pick areas with less political resistance and lower 的改善应当正在酝酿中。两国政府应认识到，美国企
growth impact. For instance, they could endeavor 业在华投资热情不减。根据我们发布的《2022特别报
to make education, health care, elderly care and 告》，自我们发布该报告伊始，中国已连续18年成为
public housing more accessible to ordinary people. 最受欢迎的投资目的地。绝大多数受访企业选择中国
作为投资目的地之一。企业仍对中国市场充满信心，
It is true that the US and China have a deep 没有受访企业表示要完全撤离中国。值得注意的是，
barrel of disagreements, but 2022 will probably 欧洲和北美市场对今年撤出中国的投资具有更大吸
not be the year the two countries hang out their 引力。约72%的企业计划未来三年在中国扩张业务，
dirty laundry. Washington will be distracted by 较去年增加7%。
midterm elections, Covid mutations, sharp internal
discord and other internal fish that need to be 在第二次世界大战期间，德军企图跨过英吉利海
fried before taking the time to consider all the 峡，英国面临巨大的生存危机。英国首相丘吉尔说：“成
aspects of its relationship with China. It’s possible 功不是终点；失败也并非末日，重要的是继续前进的勇
both the US and China may want to just take a 气。”当习近平主席和拜登总统都准备好谈判时，对话
breather concerning their current trade conflict. 必将重启。总有一天，固守在蓓蕾中的风险会比勇敢绽
Over the next 10 months, President Xi Jinping 放时所承受的风险更令人痛苦。众里寻他千百度，成功
needs to make a few checks on his honey-do-list 却往往降临在无暇寻找它的人身上。
as well. More important than wrestling with the US
over trade specifics, President Xi will attend two
national events: the February Winter Olympics and
the mid-fall 20th Communist Party Congress. At
the Beijing games, China will seek to demonstrate
its mastery of both global spectacle and Covid-19.
Even more important, President Xi will want a
quiet runup to the party congress — where he is
expected to gain another five-year term as leader,
elevating him to the historic level of Mao Zedong
and Deng Xiaoping.
Perhaps it would be appropriate for both
countries to hit the pause button so that they
both can have a little me-time of self-reflection.
Perhaps they could use the time to advance an
effort that both countries ultimately support:
mitigating climate change. As Bloomberg noted
late last year, while the US and China have not
always seen eye to eye on timing and methods for
limiting emissions, ocean acidification, overfishing
and polar ice-melting, they have at times broadly
joined arms to pull the rest of the world along. The
coming year would be a good time to support John
Kerry’s energetic push to get the two nations to
agree on concrete next steps.
Before all the environmental hand-shaking
and back-slapping end, perhaps the two countries
could do one more thing. It is time for the countries
to actually look forward together rather than
look back apart. Both countries need to play the
10
