Page 10 - 2022 Special Report on the State of Business in South China

P. 10

requires careful management of conflicting goals. 涔??涓??涓ゅ???互浣???村?????ラ???袱?介???
China?? economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter ????崇郴????般????ㄦ???袱?藉???????????????
of 2021 compared with a year earlier, down from 涓?????杩??涓????腑缇?袱?藉??ㄥ?????′腑璧峰?寮?
the 7.9% growth seen in the second quarter. 棰??????ㄥ??ㄧ?????板?瀵圭??????浜鸿?涓猴?浜虹被灏?
While there could be more regulatory measures, ?ㄥ??夸?娈垫??村?涓?????姣???????????瀛????
policymakers are likely to focus on defending a 浠??涓??姝ｅ?寰???や???????浜哄?瀵?害澶э??板???弧
minimum 5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth ?ヨ?涓???????父瀹??涔??浼???跺????涓??虹?????
target and avoid making drastic changes that could
upset the status quo. More likely, policymakers will 浠?勾涔??涓?????澶у????甯??浣?腑缇?袱?藉?绯?
pick areas with less political resistance and lower ??????褰???ㄩ??夸腑??袱?芥?搴??璁よ??帮?缇??浼?
growth impact. For instance, they could endeavor 涓?????璧?????????????浠??甯????2022?瑰???
to make education, health care, elderly care and ????????浠??甯???ュ?浼??锛?腑?藉凡杩?画18骞存?涓?
public housing more accessible to ordinary people. ?????杩?????????般???澶у??板?璁夸?涓????涓??
浣?负???????颁?涓????涓??瀵逛腑?藉??哄?婊′俊蹇??
It is true that the US and China have a deep 娌℃????浼??琛ㄧず瑕???ㄦ?绂讳腑?姐???煎?娉ㄦ????锛?
barrel of disagreements, but 2022 will probably 娆ф床???缇???哄?浠?勾?ゅ?涓?????璧?????澶у?
not be the year the two countries hang out their 寮????害72%???涓??????ヤ?骞村?涓???╁?涓??锛?
dirty laundry. Washington will be distracted by 杈??骞村???7%??
midterm elections, Covid mutations, sharp internal
discord and other internal fish that need to be ?ㄧ?浜??涓??澶ф????锛?痉????捐法杩?????娴?
fried before taking the time to consider all the 宄★??卞???复宸ㄥぇ???瀛???恒????介??镐????璇达????
aspects of its relationship with China. It?? possible ???????癸?澶辫触涔?苟????ワ???????缁х画??????
both the US and China may want to just take a 姘??????涔??骞充富甯??????荤??藉?澶?ソ璋???讹?瀵硅?
breather concerning their current trade conflict. 蹇????????绘?涓?澶╋??哄??ㄨ??句腑????╀?姣???㈢唤
Over the next 10 months, President Xi Jinping ?炬????垮?????╂?浠や汉?????????浠???惧害锛????
needs to make a few checks on his honey-do-list ?村?寰???复?ㄦ?????惧???汉韬????
as well. More important than wrestling with the US
over trade specifics, President Xi will attend two
national events: the February Winter Olympics and
the mid-fall 20th Communist Party Congress. At
the Beijing games, China will seek to demonstrate
its mastery of both global spectacle and Covid-19.
Even more important, President Xi will want a
quiet runup to the party congress ?? where he is
expected to gain another five-year term as leader,
elevating him to the historic level of Mao Zedong
and Deng Xiaoping.

Perhaps it would be appropriate for both
countries to hit the pause button so that they
both can have a little me-time of self-reflection.
Perhaps they could use the time to advance an
effort that both countries ultimately support:
mitigating climate change. As Bloomberg noted
late last year, while the US and China have not
always seen eye to eye on timing and methods for
limiting emissions, ocean acidification, overfishing
and polar ice-melting, they have at times broadly
joined arms to pull the rest of the world along. The
coming year would be a good time to support John
Kerry?? energetic push to get the two nations to
agree on concrete next steps.

Before all the environmental hand-shaking
and back-slapping end, perhaps the two countries
could do one more thing. It is time for the countries
to actually look forward together rather than
look back apart. Both countries need to play the

10

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15