Page 20 - THE SOUTH CHINA BUSINESS JOURNAL
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C. TODAY US-
China Tariff
Fight Leaves SE
Asia in the Winner's
Circle
By JOHN GOYER
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
“When elephants fight, it is the grass that Countries in Southeast Asia responded, in some cases
suffers.” This African proverb is widely by actively courting outbound Chinese investment.
cited in Southeast Asia, where anxieties about U.S.- But how much has the region benefitted? With a
China relations have long run high, and even more so full two years’ worth of trade data to assess, it’s now
over the past couple years as the trade relationship possible to begin drawing a picture.
has frayed. Not wanting to choose sides, and not Many Southeast Asian countries grew their exports
wanting disruptive economic fallout from a U.S.- to the U.S. in the wake of the trade spat (see chart).
China rupture, countries in the region remain very Vietnam became the largest beneficiary in dollar
concerned about the course of the two elephants’ terms. However, all the larger countries in the region
relationship. And rightly so. (with the exception of Indonesia) have seen growth
At the same time, it has been lost on no one that in their exports to the U.S. in recent years, both
the trade conflict also presents opportunities for before and after the Chinese tariffs. The question
Southeast Asia. Starting in 2018, amid long-festering is: How much of this is actually attributable to the
and unresolved trade disagreements with China, the China tariffs?
United States applied four waves of tariffs (as high as In order to better understand this, a recent U.S.
25%) against hundreds of billions of dollars-worth of Chamber of Commerce study created an “average
Chinese products. These tariffs incentivized Chinese tariff advantage” (ATA) to compare country-specific
exporters and suppliers to the U.S. to find alternative opportunities created by the China Section 301 tariffs.
production locations, including Southeast Asia.
China Tariff
Fight Leaves SE
Asia in the Winner's
Circle
By JOHN GOYER
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
“When elephants fight, it is the grass that Countries in Southeast Asia responded, in some cases
suffers.” This African proverb is widely by actively courting outbound Chinese investment.
cited in Southeast Asia, where anxieties about U.S.- But how much has the region benefitted? With a
China relations have long run high, and even more so full two years’ worth of trade data to assess, it’s now
over the past couple years as the trade relationship possible to begin drawing a picture.
has frayed. Not wanting to choose sides, and not Many Southeast Asian countries grew their exports
wanting disruptive economic fallout from a U.S.- to the U.S. in the wake of the trade spat (see chart).
China rupture, countries in the region remain very Vietnam became the largest beneficiary in dollar
concerned about the course of the two elephants’ terms. However, all the larger countries in the region
relationship. And rightly so. (with the exception of Indonesia) have seen growth
At the same time, it has been lost on no one that in their exports to the U.S. in recent years, both
the trade conflict also presents opportunities for before and after the Chinese tariffs. The question
Southeast Asia. Starting in 2018, amid long-festering is: How much of this is actually attributable to the
and unresolved trade disagreements with China, the China tariffs?
United States applied four waves of tariffs (as high as In order to better understand this, a recent U.S.
25%) against hundreds of billions of dollars-worth of Chamber of Commerce study created an “average
Chinese products. These tariffs incentivized Chinese tariff advantage” (ATA) to compare country-specific
exporters and suppliers to the U.S. to find alternative opportunities created by the China Section 301 tariffs.
production locations, including Southeast Asia.
