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South China Business Journal
HIGHLIGHTS Washington in Action
Will There be Another Trillion Dollar Cromnibus?
(Definition: A "continuing resolution" (CR) and "omnibus" spending bill to keep the government funded)
Election 2016
– The Race to The Nomination and Trade
With contentious votes on Trade Promotion attacks from their Democrat opponents. For example, Portman,
Authority (TPA) concluded, the focus of the trade in an acknowledgment to Ohio’s strong manufacturing industry,
debate has shifted towards the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) aggressively pushed, though unsuccessfully, for the inclusion of
agreement. On Capitol Hill, the issue has been magnified with strong currency manipulation language in TPA and is expected to
the onset of the 2016 election cycle. While most pundits agree raise the issue again once TPP’s final text is revealed. Ultimately,
that the GOP is likely to maintain its majority in the House of both Portman and Ayotte and a majority of the Republicans on
Representatives, control of the Senate has become a focal point the election ballot in 2016 are expected to support ratification of
for Democrats who would need to win four seats (five if they lose the agreement if/when it makes it to Congress for ratification.
the White House) to recapture control of the chamber. Based on
the electoral calendar alone where Republicans have to defend 24 Though it is expected that the current administration will push
seats, Democrats, who have 10 seats on the ballot, have a leg up for Congressional ratification at some point next year (see TPP
on the GOP. For their part, incumbent swing state Republicans, timeline discussion below), TPP has also been a prominent issue
like Rob Portman (R-OH) and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), have taken among the presidential candidates.
a more cautious route in their support of TPP looking to fend off
Congressional Timeline
As Congress returns from recess, lawmakers will sequestration budget caps while allocating the Department of
have to address a host of contentious issues including Defense additional funding via the emergency wartime OCO
the proposed Iran Nuclear Agreement, government funding/ account. The White House and Democrats, on the other hand,
appropriations bills, and the debt ceiling just to name a few. continue to insist that any increase in defense spending be
The overriding concern on Capitol Hill will be whether the matched on the non-defense side. In fact, President Obama has
House and Senate can reach broad agreement on spending and vowed to veto any spending deal that does not address this issue.
budget issues, or whether Congress will face a similar scenario Also complicating the picture will be debate over policy “riders”
as it did 2013 when Tea Party-affiliated members shut down – a legislative tactic oftentimes used to incorporate controversial
the government behind demands for deep spending cuts and a provisions in underlying legislation. Conservatives, particularly
repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Time will be a significant factor in the House, have vowed to attach riders addressing issues
given that the House is scheduled to be in session for just 10 days ranging from Planned Parenthood funding to immigration to
in September before fiscal 2016 begins on October 1 (note that environmental regulations to underlying appropriations bills.
three of these days are on a Monday or Friday when few votes
typically occur). The Senate is scheduled to be in session for 15 Conventional wisdom suggests that lawmakers will pass a short
days, five of which are on a Monday or Friday. The last time a term CR to provide room for negotiating a long term deal.
Republican-controlled Congress was able to complete budget Since 2009, CRs have been used every year, and in fiscal 2011,
work on time was in 1996. Congress passed seven, ultimately funding the government
for six months before a deal was reached. As far as the
Come September, the likely scenario is that lawmakers will appropriations process goes, the House has passed six of the 12
negotiate a short term continuing resolution to keep the bills funding government operations. In the Senate, Democrats
government’s doors open until a longer, more comprehensive have successfully blocked any appropriations bills from reaching
deal can be reached. The key sticking point is that Republicans the floor for a vote arguing that spending should not be capped
want to keep defense and non-defense spending at the level of at the levels mandated in the Budget Control Act.
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HIGHLIGHTS Washington in Action
Will There be Another Trillion Dollar Cromnibus?
(Definition: A "continuing resolution" (CR) and "omnibus" spending bill to keep the government funded)
Election 2016
– The Race to The Nomination and Trade
With contentious votes on Trade Promotion attacks from their Democrat opponents. For example, Portman,
Authority (TPA) concluded, the focus of the trade in an acknowledgment to Ohio’s strong manufacturing industry,
debate has shifted towards the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) aggressively pushed, though unsuccessfully, for the inclusion of
agreement. On Capitol Hill, the issue has been magnified with strong currency manipulation language in TPA and is expected to
the onset of the 2016 election cycle. While most pundits agree raise the issue again once TPP’s final text is revealed. Ultimately,
that the GOP is likely to maintain its majority in the House of both Portman and Ayotte and a majority of the Republicans on
Representatives, control of the Senate has become a focal point the election ballot in 2016 are expected to support ratification of
for Democrats who would need to win four seats (five if they lose the agreement if/when it makes it to Congress for ratification.
the White House) to recapture control of the chamber. Based on
the electoral calendar alone where Republicans have to defend 24 Though it is expected that the current administration will push
seats, Democrats, who have 10 seats on the ballot, have a leg up for Congressional ratification at some point next year (see TPP
on the GOP. For their part, incumbent swing state Republicans, timeline discussion below), TPP has also been a prominent issue
like Rob Portman (R-OH) and Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), have taken among the presidential candidates.
a more cautious route in their support of TPP looking to fend off
Congressional Timeline
As Congress returns from recess, lawmakers will sequestration budget caps while allocating the Department of
have to address a host of contentious issues including Defense additional funding via the emergency wartime OCO
the proposed Iran Nuclear Agreement, government funding/ account. The White House and Democrats, on the other hand,
appropriations bills, and the debt ceiling just to name a few. continue to insist that any increase in defense spending be
The overriding concern on Capitol Hill will be whether the matched on the non-defense side. In fact, President Obama has
House and Senate can reach broad agreement on spending and vowed to veto any spending deal that does not address this issue.
budget issues, or whether Congress will face a similar scenario Also complicating the picture will be debate over policy “riders”
as it did 2013 when Tea Party-affiliated members shut down – a legislative tactic oftentimes used to incorporate controversial
the government behind demands for deep spending cuts and a provisions in underlying legislation. Conservatives, particularly
repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Time will be a significant factor in the House, have vowed to attach riders addressing issues
given that the House is scheduled to be in session for just 10 days ranging from Planned Parenthood funding to immigration to
in September before fiscal 2016 begins on October 1 (note that environmental regulations to underlying appropriations bills.
three of these days are on a Monday or Friday when few votes
typically occur). The Senate is scheduled to be in session for 15 Conventional wisdom suggests that lawmakers will pass a short
days, five of which are on a Monday or Friday. The last time a term CR to provide room for negotiating a long term deal.
Republican-controlled Congress was able to complete budget Since 2009, CRs have been used every year, and in fiscal 2011,
work on time was in 1996. Congress passed seven, ultimately funding the government
for six months before a deal was reached. As far as the
Come September, the likely scenario is that lawmakers will appropriations process goes, the House has passed six of the 12
negotiate a short term continuing resolution to keep the bills funding government operations. In the Senate, Democrats
government’s doors open until a longer, more comprehensive have successfully blocked any appropriations bills from reaching
deal can be reached. The key sticking point is that Republicans the floor for a vote arguing that spending should not be capped
want to keep defense and non-defense spending at the level of at the levels mandated in the Budget Control Act.
18
