Page 50 - 2020 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
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0 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
the first ten months of 2019 from US$345 billion Trump’s transactional approach to trade disputes.
in the comparable 2018 period, but the U.S. total In short, enjoy Phase 1” while it lasts, and prepare
trade deficit has hardly changed, standing at for a bumpier ride in the US-China relationship in
US$716 billion for the same 2019 period as the the foreseeable future (Thunberg, et al.).
United States imports more from other countries.
The interests of China and the United States
By contrast, while exports to the United States are deeply interwoven and a confrontational
have been cut by about 13 percent, China has China-US relationship does not benefit anyone.
increased sales to Europe, ASEAN, and many The new issues should not be dealt with cold
emerging market countries, raising its overall war mentality against the background of
trade surplus to US$378 billion in the first globalization. Differences in such areas as history,
eleven months of 2019, compared to US$294 culture, political system and development stages
billion in the comparable period in 2018. As between the two countries are very normal, but
such, contrary to popular perception, net export the differences do not necessarily have to lead
has been a positive contributor to China’s GDP to confrontation and conflicts. Cooperation will
growth. China’s slowdown has been domestically always be the best choice for China and the US.
driven; mainly resulting from official desires to China has a clear policy toward its relationship
moderate the growth of total social financing — with the US, which is based on no-conflict and
to 10.7 percent year over year in November 2019 no-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win
compared to 13.5 percent earlier in the year cooperation. At the same time, China firmly
(and 20-25 percent in 2015-17)—to guard against safeguards its own sovereignty, security and
risks of a financial crisis. Regarding the goal of interests for development. The working teams
moving manufacturing jobs back to the United of both sides must step up consultations and
States, the needle hasn’t moved. While non- reach an agreement with win-win results since
farm payrolls increased by more than 6 million the bilateral trade ties are mutually beneficial
since 2017, the share of manufacturing jobs in in nature. The most important thing now is
total civilian employment currently stands at honestly implementing the consensus reached
8.1 percent, exactly the same as when President by the leaders of the two countries and expand
Trump was inaugurated. Much will depend on the cooperation on the basis of managing and
course and outcome of the 2020 US Presidential controlling disputes, thus indicating direction
election. Already, with announcements of the for the development of bilateral ties in the next
Phase 1 deal” deal, Trump may feel less pressure period (Mo).
to do much else vis-a-vis China, giving rise to
speculations of “phase one and done” for the By mid 2019 it became increasingly clear that
next year. If re-elected, he may feel emboldened China would not give in to extreme pressure by
to continue using tariffs and additional tools such the US on tariffs and would firmly defend its core
as restricting US portfolio investment in Chinese interests, as it has sufficient countermeasures
companies to press for meaningful changes in available. Yet, Vice-Premier Liu He said in
China’s state-owned enterprise model—changes August 2019 that China was willing to resolve
which China is very unlikely to agree to. Indeed, disputes with the United States through "calm"
Vice Premier Liu He has recently emphasized negotiations, and it resolutely opposes the
that China will make its state economy “Stronger, escalation of trade conflicts. Liu, who has been
better, and bigger.” If the Democrats retake the leading the trade negotiations with Washington,
White House, there could be an effort to rebuild said China has sufficient policy tools and is
the traditional alliances with Europe, Japan, and capable of ensuring stable and sound economic
others to develop a broadly-based approach to development. "We resolutely oppose technology
deal with China—and thus much less emphasis blockades and trade protectionism... and are
on the unilateral use of tariffs. The contention willing to resolve problems through consultation
with China, however, will likely deepen, not and cooperation with a calm attitude. The
lessen, moving more into the security, human vice-premier also said that China welcomes
rights, and ideological arenas, well beyond companies from all over the world including the
50
the first ten months of 2019 from US$345 billion Trump’s transactional approach to trade disputes.
in the comparable 2018 period, but the U.S. total In short, enjoy Phase 1” while it lasts, and prepare
trade deficit has hardly changed, standing at for a bumpier ride in the US-China relationship in
US$716 billion for the same 2019 period as the the foreseeable future (Thunberg, et al.).
United States imports more from other countries.
The interests of China and the United States
By contrast, while exports to the United States are deeply interwoven and a confrontational
have been cut by about 13 percent, China has China-US relationship does not benefit anyone.
increased sales to Europe, ASEAN, and many The new issues should not be dealt with cold
emerging market countries, raising its overall war mentality against the background of
trade surplus to US$378 billion in the first globalization. Differences in such areas as history,
eleven months of 2019, compared to US$294 culture, political system and development stages
billion in the comparable period in 2018. As between the two countries are very normal, but
such, contrary to popular perception, net export the differences do not necessarily have to lead
has been a positive contributor to China’s GDP to confrontation and conflicts. Cooperation will
growth. China’s slowdown has been domestically always be the best choice for China and the US.
driven; mainly resulting from official desires to China has a clear policy toward its relationship
moderate the growth of total social financing — with the US, which is based on no-conflict and
to 10.7 percent year over year in November 2019 no-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win
compared to 13.5 percent earlier in the year cooperation. At the same time, China firmly
(and 20-25 percent in 2015-17)—to guard against safeguards its own sovereignty, security and
risks of a financial crisis. Regarding the goal of interests for development. The working teams
moving manufacturing jobs back to the United of both sides must step up consultations and
States, the needle hasn’t moved. While non- reach an agreement with win-win results since
farm payrolls increased by more than 6 million the bilateral trade ties are mutually beneficial
since 2017, the share of manufacturing jobs in in nature. The most important thing now is
total civilian employment currently stands at honestly implementing the consensus reached
8.1 percent, exactly the same as when President by the leaders of the two countries and expand
Trump was inaugurated. Much will depend on the cooperation on the basis of managing and
course and outcome of the 2020 US Presidential controlling disputes, thus indicating direction
election. Already, with announcements of the for the development of bilateral ties in the next
Phase 1 deal” deal, Trump may feel less pressure period (Mo).
to do much else vis-a-vis China, giving rise to
speculations of “phase one and done” for the By mid 2019 it became increasingly clear that
next year. If re-elected, he may feel emboldened China would not give in to extreme pressure by
to continue using tariffs and additional tools such the US on tariffs and would firmly defend its core
as restricting US portfolio investment in Chinese interests, as it has sufficient countermeasures
companies to press for meaningful changes in available. Yet, Vice-Premier Liu He said in
China’s state-owned enterprise model—changes August 2019 that China was willing to resolve
which China is very unlikely to agree to. Indeed, disputes with the United States through "calm"
Vice Premier Liu He has recently emphasized negotiations, and it resolutely opposes the
that China will make its state economy “Stronger, escalation of trade conflicts. Liu, who has been
better, and bigger.” If the Democrats retake the leading the trade negotiations with Washington,
White House, there could be an effort to rebuild said China has sufficient policy tools and is
the traditional alliances with Europe, Japan, and capable of ensuring stable and sound economic
others to develop a broadly-based approach to development. "We resolutely oppose technology
deal with China—and thus much less emphasis blockades and trade protectionism... and are
on the unilateral use of tariffs. The contention willing to resolve problems through consultation
with China, however, will likely deepen, not and cooperation with a calm attitude. The
lessen, moving more into the security, human vice-premier also said that China welcomes
rights, and ideological arenas, well beyond companies from all over the world including the
50
