Page 157 - 2017 White Paper

The American Chamber of Commerce in South China

????©å???????ï¼???©ä?ä¸??ç»??ä»?????åº??èµ?? ?½æ?ä¼??ï¼??????¥ä?ä¸?´»???é¼???????ä¸??ä¸??
èµ???????ç»??å¢??模å?ï¼???´å?以æ?è´¹è??¸ºå¯¼å???? äº???????
?¿æ¨¡å¼?½¬????(Casey 2014)??
ä¸?ä¸?»¥å¸??为å?ç¡???????æ¡??å·²ç??????½¢ï¼??
??2013å¹´ç?ä¸?¸­?¨ä???2014å¹´å?ä¸??ä¼??ï¼?¸­ ä¸??ä¸??è¿??è¦????¤§??·¥ä½????å¹´ï?ä¸?????导å?ä¸?
?½å?产å??°ä?å±??导ç?å­??????ºä?è¿??ç»??????¶æ? ?´è???????¢æ?è¿??æ³?²»?½â???????§ï?ä½??ä¸?????
?©ç??¿è????å¦??大è???说ï????è´¥è??¨å??¶ä??¿æ²»?? 治建设è?ä»?¹¶æ²¡æ????å¤??è¿?? (Keck 2014)??2015
?©æ?ç»???¹é???????为å??¢æ·±????©å?ç»??è½?????? å¹?6???è´¢æ?ç½???»ä?ä¸?ç¯??人ç????社è?????????
å¿?????å¢???????ä¸???¿å?é¢???????¸´??????é¢? ç«??为ï??½ç??¿å?å·²ä??ºæ?诺ï?ä½??ç§??è¡??ä»???¨å?
???ä¹??å¹³å??¶æ??¿å????å¤??边继ç»???³æ??»è?è´¥ï? ?ºå??¥ã???èµ??????¹é????æ³??æ­§è????ç«??ï¼?¸­??
ä¸?边大å¼??é¼??è¿??ç»???¹é???? ç»????è¦???½»åº?½¬??????????????æ°´å¹³??????
è¦???°è?ä¸??¹ï??????è¦???±è????æµ??代ç?ç§????
??»¬???论æ?ï¼??ä»??é¡»å??°ï?ä»?»¬ä¸??ä¸???°ï? ä¹???(Caixin 2015)??
???ä¹??该å??°ã??
?¿é?å·´å·´???ç±³ã???è®????åº?????³ä»¥???å¤?¸­??
ä¹??平主å¸?????è¡??å·²ç?让å?ä½??åº??å®??é©?? ä¼????????å·²ç?è¯??ä¸??ä¹??以æ?为å??°å¼º?½ã??¸­??
ä¾??????¥ã???????¨é??¿å?永康以å??½å????ä¸???? ???è¦????¼º?²ç?å¢??ï¼??é¡»ä?èµ??ä¸?è½??ä¸?????æµ?
å§??ä¼?????å§????¸»ä»»å????ï¼?????¹å?æ­£æ??¶å??? æ½????å®??è¿?¸ª???ï¼?¸­?½æ?åº??须继ç»??è¡???¾ç???
?§è?ç»???¿ç???¸»è¦????????????å°???¥æ??????? ?©è?ç¨???§å??½å??????????æ³?²»æ°´å¹³??¸­?½å?é¡»è?
???å¤??è§??人士认为ï¼???¸­?½è¿«???è¦??è¡??æµ?? ?½æ?ä¼???¥å????????ºç?äº?º¦???以å??????????
?©ï?ä½?????ä¸??人ç??»æ?ï¼??????????ä¸??ä¸????? ?ºæ?审æ???
ä¸???±äº§???è¿???°ä????°ç???????ï¼??ä¸???±äº§??
ä¸?¤®çº??å§??ä¼??ä¸?ºªå§???¨å????è¦?½±???ä¸?¤®??? 2015å¹?8????½é?è´§å??ºé?ç»???¨å?ä¸??ç»????
家æ??³è?ç«?¸­å¤?ºªå§?´¾é©»æ??¥å?ï¼??????¡é??????? 年度è¯?¼°?¥å?ä¸???ºï?ä¸??ç»????????§æ??©å·²ç»??å¾?
?¨å?人大?ºå??????¸­çº??ç¬??次å??½å???????½äººå¤? è¿????¸­?½æ??¨è??¥â???常æ??????¶ç??¹æ?å¢????º¦
???ä»?¸­å¤??级å????家æ??³æ´¾é©»çºªå¾???¥å?????°å? ?¾æ?ï¼????????????´å????ç»????è¿???¥å?ä¹??
社æ??????´¾é©»æ????ä¼???¨è???140å¤??ä¸?¤®???å®? ?ºè?????¹é?å°??å®??ï¼?¸­?½ä?????? (IMF Survey
?ºå???(Lubman 2014)?? 2015)??

ä¹??平主å¸???¶æ??¿å????诺è?è¿??广æ?æ·±å???? 2017å¹´å????建è?
å¿?????ç»???¹é?ï¼??è¿°æ?æ²»æ??©æ????为ç?æµ???©æ?
æ¸??ç¢????»¬å°????»¥å¾??? ??»¬å¸??ä¸?????导å????????¹é????è·?????
èµ°ä??»â????´å?è¾¾æ??????
?¨ã???å°???¥æ?????¥é?ä¸????º¬å¤§å?å»??建è???
究中å¿?¸»ä»»æ?????????好ç??»ç?ï¼????????°ä?ï¼?? ?£ä?ï¼???¨ä??¨é?ä¹??ï¼?ow Do You Solve a
?¢æ·±????©å°±?¨ä??¨â?????ä¸?å±?¸­å¤??åº??两个?³å¤´?? Problem like Maria)???æ³??ä¸?????é¢?????解å?
?¸è??¸æ?ï¼??????²ç???(Lubman 2014)?? ???è¿??2017年以???ä¸??????©å?ä¼??å±¥è??°ï?ä¸?
?½æ?æ²»ã???æµ??社ä????æ­£é?临ç?????°é????å¢??ç¨?
继续????°å? ?????¾¿???产ç?严é??????

å°±å????????½é?è°?©¹å§???¢é?å¾·ç?é©??尼鸡尾é? ä¸??å¿?¡»???ä¼???ºå?ï¼??ç»???³æ???¡¨?°ä?ä½³ç?
?½æ?ä¼??ï¼?¹¶?¥å?ç»??ä½?????¿ã??¸­?½ç?????½æ?ä¼??
ä¸??·ï?ä¸??????©ä???è¦????ï¼??è¦?????? å¿?¡»è¿???¹é???»¥ä¹??平主å¸?¸º?¸å???¸­å¤??åº?·²ç»??
ç«?????è¦???¤ç???????ä¸????180ä¸?°±ä¸????äº??
?????æµ??人ã??????è¦???°è?ä¸??¹ï???è¦?¸­?½ç? ä½???°è????ï¼??åº????¹¶???ç½???´è¡¨??????ä¸??
é¢??å±??ä¸?¸ª????¹é?è¿?????ï¼??ä¸????å¿???¾é? ?¿å??·å?两é?å¢??ï¼??è¦??æ¿?å¢??以维??°±ä¸??社ä?ç¨?
????ºï?让è?????????´»???ä¼??ï¼???????ç³»æ? å®??????¢å?ç»??å¢????ç¼??é¢????å¤???¿å?è¿??é¡»æ?
强大???ä¸??ç¬????»ºè®¾å??¨è?ä¾??æ²»å?ï¼??????? ?¨å????è´? (Mauldin Economics 2016)??
ä¸??ä¸???½æ?ä¼??è¿??ç§??ä¼??ï¼??管中?½ä?ä¸????
å¤??ä¼??ï¼??å¾??å¹³ç?对å?ï¼??ä¸?????´æ?????¿ç?

157