Page 25 - The South China Business Journal
P. 25
Study Estimates Value of US-
$672 bnASEAN Economic Relationship at
By U.S. Chamber of Commerce
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently The paper further makes some projections
released an analysis which estimated about the economic relationship moving
the total value of the U.S. economic forward. Based on the estimated compound
relationship with the ten member countries annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011-15, in a
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations low-growth scenario the size of the relationship
(ASEAN) to be some $672 billion in 2015. The would increase to $708 billion by 2020. In a
study, entitled “The US-ASEAN Big Number,” baseline growth scenario – that is, extrapolating
takes a new approach to measuring the based on the same CAGR, the relationship would
economic relationship; in addition to bilateral increase to $955 billion by 2020. In a high growth
trade and investment, the study attempts to scenario, the relationship would increase to $1,119
measure the flows of financing, the in-country billion by 2020.
sales by US companies’ ASEAN-based affiliates
and ASEAN affiliates’ sales in the United Given the challenges of data availability and
States, and government revenues derived from comparability across countries, the paper takes
the operations of U.S. companies in ASEAN. a cautious, conservative approach in calculating
Adding all these indicators together yielded the Big Number. As a result, and despite the size
a figure of $672 billion in 2015 (which was the of the Big Number, it likely understates the actual
latest year for which sufficiently complete data value of the economic relationship.
were available at the time the study). This
number represented approximately one-quarter We hope that members will find this study
of ASEAN’s GDP that year. useful, and that the “Big Number” will provide
a fresh and more holistic view of the overall
economic relationship.■
$
$
$
$$
$
The US-ASEAN Big
Number: Growth
Projections to 2020
SOUTH CHINA BUSINESS JOURNAL 23
$672 bnASEAN Economic Relationship at
By U.S. Chamber of Commerce
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently The paper further makes some projections
released an analysis which estimated about the economic relationship moving
the total value of the U.S. economic forward. Based on the estimated compound
relationship with the ten member countries annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2011-15, in a
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations low-growth scenario the size of the relationship
(ASEAN) to be some $672 billion in 2015. The would increase to $708 billion by 2020. In a
study, entitled “The US-ASEAN Big Number,” baseline growth scenario – that is, extrapolating
takes a new approach to measuring the based on the same CAGR, the relationship would
economic relationship; in addition to bilateral increase to $955 billion by 2020. In a high growth
trade and investment, the study attempts to scenario, the relationship would increase to $1,119
measure the flows of financing, the in-country billion by 2020.
sales by US companies’ ASEAN-based affiliates
and ASEAN affiliates’ sales in the United Given the challenges of data availability and
States, and government revenues derived from comparability across countries, the paper takes
the operations of U.S. companies in ASEAN. a cautious, conservative approach in calculating
Adding all these indicators together yielded the Big Number. As a result, and despite the size
a figure of $672 billion in 2015 (which was the of the Big Number, it likely understates the actual
latest year for which sufficiently complete data value of the economic relationship.
were available at the time the study). This
number represented approximately one-quarter We hope that members will find this study
of ASEAN’s GDP that year. useful, and that the “Big Number” will provide
a fresh and more holistic view of the overall
economic relationship.■
$
$
$
$$
$
The US-ASEAN Big
Number: Growth
Projections to 2020
SOUTH CHINA BUSINESS JOURNAL 23
