Page 9 - 2025 Special Report

compared to the previous reinvestment figure. 济增长。此外，房价和抵押贷款利率的攀升，使得越来
91% of the companies studied assert that they will 越多的美国人难以负担房贷，而部分关键行业的劳动
not decouple from the Chinese market due to the 力短缺也在拖累生产力和整体经济发展。
US-China trade tensions, a 5pp increase from 2023.
中国正在通过加大改革力度，推动高质量发展和
The United States and China each stand at 技术创新来维持经济增长，同时努力振兴疲软的房地
pivotal junctures, with their economic trajectories 产业，从而实现价值链转型升级。
poised to be shaped by critical policy decisions in
the coming years. 人口总量减少也被认为是中国面临的一个重大
挑战，可能引发劳动力短缺、养老金体系压力加剧，
In the US, the newly elected president faces a 以及消费市场的萎缩。这一现象的根源在于低出生
difficult mandate to address a daunting $1.8 trillion 率和计划生育政策的长期影响。三年前，中国正式步
deficit, reduce government size, and deregulate 入人口负增长时代，与日本、东欧大部分国家等其他
industries. This platform reflects domestic 人口下降的国家并列。2024年，中国出生人口达到
pressures to reinvigorate economic dynamism 954万，较2023年的902万有所增长。这一小幅增长
amid fiscal challenges such as persistent inflation 符合专家的预测，他们认为新冠疫情的结束、龙年的
that has led to higher interest rates, making 吉祥寓意以及婚姻登记数量的回升将推动2024年出
borrowing more expensive for federal and local 生率的上升。
governments, businesses, and consumers, which
in turn slows economic growth. Rising home prices 尽管2024年出生人口同比有所增加，但中国总人
and mortgage rates have made homeownership 口已连续三年下降，降至14.08亿人。在许多情况下，
difficult for many Americans and key industries 原因是相似的：生活成本的上升使得年轻人推迟或放
struggle with workforce shortages, impacting 弃结婚和生育，转而追求高等教育和职业发展。虽然
productivity and economic growth. 人们的寿命越来越长，但这并不足以弥补新生儿出生
率的下降。同时，60岁及以上人口已达到3.1亿，占总
China is navigating its own transformation of 人口的22%。最终，死亡人数略高于出生人数，达到了
moving up the value chain by doubling down on 1093万。此外，人口老龄化还可能导致医疗成本增加
reforms to sustain growth through high-quality 以及与养老相关的潜在社会问题。像中国这样几乎没
development and technological innovation, while 有移民政策且不允许双重国籍的国家尤其容易面临
at the same time, trying to revive an anemic 这一风险。
housing industry.
中国面临的另一个问题是，尽管拥有大量廉价且
A declining population is also considered a 熟练的劳动力，但目前高技能技术人员，尤其是高科
significant problem for China, as it could lead to 技制造业的专业人才短缺问题十分突出。但随着经济
major economic challenges like labor shortages, 转型，高科技制造业对高级技术人才的需求不断增
a strain on pension systems, and a shrinking 长，而现有人才储备尚难以满足这一需求。中国政府
consumer base, all due to the rapidly aging 正在积极推动职业教育，以解决技能缺口问题，旨在
population caused by low birth rates and the 通过有针对性的培训项目提高技术工人的比例。中国
legacy of the one-child policy. Three years ago, 政府已制定了提高技术工人在劳动力中所占比例的
China joined Japan, most of Eastern Europe, and 目标，计划在各个行业建立国家级技能人才培训基地。
other nations whose population is falling. The
number of newborns in 2024 reached 9.54 million, 当然，中美两国未来仍然面临诸多挑战。正如我
up from 9.02 million in 2023. The slight increase 们在其他报告中提到的，中美两国依然面临着包括
matches experts' prediction, saying that the end of 双边关税在内的多个问题，这些问题将继续阻碍双
the COVID-19 pandemic, the fortunate zodiac sign 方谈判。
of the Year of the Dragon, and a reverberation in
new marriage registrations would lift the birthrate 然而，如果我们看穿这些纷争与叫嚣，美国仍
in 2024. 然是中国的第三大贸易伙伴，2024年中美贸易总值
达到4.01万亿元人民币（约5600亿美元），同比增长
China's total population fell for a third straight 4.4%。中美两国始终对贸易保持高度关注，包括彼此
year in a row to 1.408 billion in 2024 despite an 之间的贸易。我们不认为贸易量可能会减少是一个值

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