Page 36 - 2022 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
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2 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
inflation globally in 2022. But greater restrictions, a heterogeneous group of symptoms that could
particularly in China and other Asia-Pacific occur up to six months after the illness. The most
economies that are likely to continue to pursue common symptoms were fatigue, post-exertional
zero-COVID-19 policies, may add to supply chain malaise and cognitive disfunction sometimes
strains in the short term and slow the speed described as "brain fog". Shortness of breath,
at which bottlenecks are cleared. In addition, coughing, mental and neurological complications
tighter restrictions are also likely to result in a have also been reported. Patients experiencing
more gradual transition of spending from goods this condition could have been hospitalized
back to services. These two factors combined patients, but also those with mild symptoms, who
would likely result in goods price inflation in were treated in ambulatory settings. There is still
2022 remaining higher than our current baseline a need to better understand this condition. It is
envisages. The impact on core inflation will also not yet clear who is most at risk, and why it is
depend on the extent to which an Omicron happening in the first place (Xinhua, Post-Covid).
wave affects demand. While demand effects
outweighed supply-side effects during the global Works Cited
lockdown, supply effects typically dominated
demand effects in subsequent shutdowns. On Bradsher, Keith. “China Returns to Its Strict
balance, the latter episodes are likely to be more Covid Limits to Fight a New Outbreak.” The New
representative than the former when it comes to York Times, The New York Times, 9 June 2021,
future inflation trends unless we end up in our https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/world/asia/
worst-case scenario. In that case, demand effects china-covid-lockdown.html.
might dominate. Beyond 2022, though, the
impact on inflation is likely to be governed by two Buckley, Chris. “A Chinese City Locks down a
factors. The first is the extent to which Omicron Neighborhood after a Flare-up Worries Officials.”
enhances or diminishes labor bargaining power. The New York Times, The New York Times, 29
For now, we see the risk of sustained high wage May 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/29/
growth as limited. And the second is the extent to world/china-lockdown-covid-cases.html.
which policymakers step in to protect demand. If
the Omicron variant ends up having a significant CD. “China Still Driving Global Growth in
impact on the economy, then governments and 2021: Media.” Chinadaily.com.cn, 18 May 2021,
central banks would likely focus their response https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202105/18/
on the demand impacts rather than the more WS60a35a9ba31024ad0babfbde.html.
ambiguous inflation impact (May and Mcfee).
CD. “Faster Vaccination in China a Boost to
Expectations Asian Recovery: Media.” Chinadaily.com.cn, 2
June 2021, https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/
Vaccinations are only a part of treating COVID. a/202106/02/WS60b714d2a31024ad0bac3168.
World Health Organization Director-General Dr. html.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that given
the scale of the current COVID-19 pandemic, CD. “Omicron Another Blow to Global
the WHO expects many people to be affected Economy.” Chinadaily.com.cn, 3 Dec. 2021,
by "post-COVID condition," also referred to as https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202112/03/
"long COVID." The WHO held a global meeting of WS61a95c36a310cdd39bc790b2.html.
patients, clinical experts and other stakeholders
to advance the understanding of "long COVID". CD. Omicron Reinforces Urgency of
Long COVID affects patients with both severe Vaccine ... - Chinadaily.com.cn. 1 Dec. 2021,
and mild COVID-19. Part of the challenge is that https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202112/01/
patients with long COVID can have a range of WS61a76e1fa310cdd39bc78bcc.html.
different symptoms that can be persistent or can
come and go. The post COVID-19 condition was
36
inflation globally in 2022. But greater restrictions, a heterogeneous group of symptoms that could
particularly in China and other Asia-Pacific occur up to six months after the illness. The most
economies that are likely to continue to pursue common symptoms were fatigue, post-exertional
zero-COVID-19 policies, may add to supply chain malaise and cognitive disfunction sometimes
strains in the short term and slow the speed described as "brain fog". Shortness of breath,
at which bottlenecks are cleared. In addition, coughing, mental and neurological complications
tighter restrictions are also likely to result in a have also been reported. Patients experiencing
more gradual transition of spending from goods this condition could have been hospitalized
back to services. These two factors combined patients, but also those with mild symptoms, who
would likely result in goods price inflation in were treated in ambulatory settings. There is still
2022 remaining higher than our current baseline a need to better understand this condition. It is
envisages. The impact on core inflation will also not yet clear who is most at risk, and why it is
depend on the extent to which an Omicron happening in the first place (Xinhua, Post-Covid).
wave affects demand. While demand effects
outweighed supply-side effects during the global Works Cited
lockdown, supply effects typically dominated
demand effects in subsequent shutdowns. On Bradsher, Keith. “China Returns to Its Strict
balance, the latter episodes are likely to be more Covid Limits to Fight a New Outbreak.” The New
representative than the former when it comes to York Times, The New York Times, 9 June 2021,
future inflation trends unless we end up in our https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/world/asia/
worst-case scenario. In that case, demand effects china-covid-lockdown.html.
might dominate. Beyond 2022, though, the
impact on inflation is likely to be governed by two Buckley, Chris. “A Chinese City Locks down a
factors. The first is the extent to which Omicron Neighborhood after a Flare-up Worries Officials.”
enhances or diminishes labor bargaining power. The New York Times, The New York Times, 29
For now, we see the risk of sustained high wage May 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/29/
growth as limited. And the second is the extent to world/china-lockdown-covid-cases.html.
which policymakers step in to protect demand. If
the Omicron variant ends up having a significant CD. “China Still Driving Global Growth in
impact on the economy, then governments and 2021: Media.” Chinadaily.com.cn, 18 May 2021,
central banks would likely focus their response https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202105/18/
on the demand impacts rather than the more WS60a35a9ba31024ad0babfbde.html.
ambiguous inflation impact (May and Mcfee).
CD. “Faster Vaccination in China a Boost to
Expectations Asian Recovery: Media.” Chinadaily.com.cn, 2
June 2021, https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/
Vaccinations are only a part of treating COVID. a/202106/02/WS60b714d2a31024ad0bac3168.
World Health Organization Director-General Dr. html.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that given
the scale of the current COVID-19 pandemic, CD. “Omicron Another Blow to Global
the WHO expects many people to be affected Economy.” Chinadaily.com.cn, 3 Dec. 2021,
by "post-COVID condition," also referred to as https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202112/03/
"long COVID." The WHO held a global meeting of WS61a95c36a310cdd39bc790b2.html.
patients, clinical experts and other stakeholders
to advance the understanding of "long COVID". CD. Omicron Reinforces Urgency of
Long COVID affects patients with both severe Vaccine ... - Chinadaily.com.cn. 1 Dec. 2021,
and mild COVID-19. Part of the challenge is that https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202112/01/
patients with long COVID can have a range of WS61a76e1fa310cdd39bc78bcc.html.
different symptoms that can be persistent or can
come and go. The post COVID-19 condition was
36
