Page 34 - 2022 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
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2 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
among an unvaccinated population, the more this is indicative of lower vaccine efficacy. In
likely it is to mutate. Yet despite the warnings, addition, even if vaccine efficacy is reduced, it's
vaccine inequality persists globally. Every day, for unclear whether some vaccines will offer better
every vaccine shot administered as the first dose protection than others. The main repercussion
in the poorest countries, six times as many doses that's clear at this stage is that governments
are being administered as third-shot boosters in have already reacted to the Omicron news by
the richest parts of the world. The result is that at re-imposing restrictions, particularly on foreign
the end of 2021 only 3% of people in low-income travel. More generally, the latest development
countries are fully vaccinated, while the figure underscores that the path to normalcy will
exceeds 60% in both high-income countries and continue to be bumpy and uncertain. In a best-
upper-middle-income countries. This has made case scenario, Omicron could turn out to be a
it virtually impossible for the WHO to achieve blessing in disguise if the efficacy of the vaccines
its goal of vaccinating 40% of the population of against serious health outcomes remains high
every country against COVID-19 by the beginning and the symptoms of those infected are generally
of 2022. The response of the United States and less serious. In such a scenario, the spread of
other Western countries to the poorer countries' Omicron could help to expedite the transition
urgent need for vaccines was disappointing. Even back toward normalcy, and any near-term
the 1 billion doses of vaccines the G7 leaders weakness in economic activity due to renewed
promised to donate to low-income countries restrictions might be quickly caught up early in
by the end of 2021 were not delivered. The US, 2022. The emergence of a less serious virus strain
for example, delivered only 25% of the vaccines and the rapid deployment of modified vaccines
that it promised. "Vaccine inequity is the world's (Moderna has already said that by early 2022 a
biggest obstacle to ending this pandemic and reformulated vaccine to tackle Omicron could
recovering from COVID-19," Tedros Adhanom be available "in large quantities") might reassure
Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, said. people and enterprises that, although COVID-19
"Economically, epidemiologically and morally, is set to linger, its economic impact will lessen
it is in all countries' best interest to … make over time. Although far from inevitable, we can't
lifesaving vaccines available to all." Hopefully, discount the possibility of Omicron having greater
the world will not need to experience another transmissibility, similar or worse symptoms
outbreak of a worrying new variant to realize the to Delta, and greater resistance to vaccines.
truth of those words (CD, Omicron Reinforces). In our current COVID-19 downside scenario in
which new novel coronavirus variants trigger a
Information on the health implications of the protracted period of restrictions and lengthen
Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus have the disruption to global supply chains, world
been scarce, making the economic repercussions GDP growth slows to 2.3% in 2022 and financial
highly unpredictable. At the time of writing, about markets weaken. In this scenario, advanced
30 economies have reported cases of Omicron, economies are particularly hard hit with the
but the number of countries where it is present GDP growth of the United States and eurozone
is likely to be substantially higher. In South Africa, in 2022 being about 2 percentage points below
for instance, it's estimated that Omicron has the current baseline forecasts of 4.5% and 4.2%,
accounted for about 70% of the total COVID-19 respectively. Based on the current relationship
cases in December 2021. Based on this, it seems with lockdown stringency, a downward revision
possible that Omicron may take over from the of that magnitude would be consistent with
Delta variant as the dominant strain globally. restrictions ratcheting up to levels similar to those
Nonetheless, the World Health Organization seen globally from May to September 2021. This
has cautioned that there is not yet sufficient would lower calendar year global growth from
evidence that Omicron is more transmissible. the current 4.5% to 4.2-4.3%. In the nearer term,
The other key uncertainty is the degree to which it is likely that governments will tighten measures
it reduces the efficacy of existing vaccines. While that restrict international travel or make it more
some of those infected have reportedly been inconvenient and expensive, which may help
fully vaccinated, it's too early to judge whether to push down oil prices and thus energy price
34
among an unvaccinated population, the more this is indicative of lower vaccine efficacy. In
likely it is to mutate. Yet despite the warnings, addition, even if vaccine efficacy is reduced, it's
vaccine inequality persists globally. Every day, for unclear whether some vaccines will offer better
every vaccine shot administered as the first dose protection than others. The main repercussion
in the poorest countries, six times as many doses that's clear at this stage is that governments
are being administered as third-shot boosters in have already reacted to the Omicron news by
the richest parts of the world. The result is that at re-imposing restrictions, particularly on foreign
the end of 2021 only 3% of people in low-income travel. More generally, the latest development
countries are fully vaccinated, while the figure underscores that the path to normalcy will
exceeds 60% in both high-income countries and continue to be bumpy and uncertain. In a best-
upper-middle-income countries. This has made case scenario, Omicron could turn out to be a
it virtually impossible for the WHO to achieve blessing in disguise if the efficacy of the vaccines
its goal of vaccinating 40% of the population of against serious health outcomes remains high
every country against COVID-19 by the beginning and the symptoms of those infected are generally
of 2022. The response of the United States and less serious. In such a scenario, the spread of
other Western countries to the poorer countries' Omicron could help to expedite the transition
urgent need for vaccines was disappointing. Even back toward normalcy, and any near-term
the 1 billion doses of vaccines the G7 leaders weakness in economic activity due to renewed
promised to donate to low-income countries restrictions might be quickly caught up early in
by the end of 2021 were not delivered. The US, 2022. The emergence of a less serious virus strain
for example, delivered only 25% of the vaccines and the rapid deployment of modified vaccines
that it promised. "Vaccine inequity is the world's (Moderna has already said that by early 2022 a
biggest obstacle to ending this pandemic and reformulated vaccine to tackle Omicron could
recovering from COVID-19," Tedros Adhanom be available "in large quantities") might reassure
Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, said. people and enterprises that, although COVID-19
"Economically, epidemiologically and morally, is set to linger, its economic impact will lessen
it is in all countries' best interest to … make over time. Although far from inevitable, we can't
lifesaving vaccines available to all." Hopefully, discount the possibility of Omicron having greater
the world will not need to experience another transmissibility, similar or worse symptoms
outbreak of a worrying new variant to realize the to Delta, and greater resistance to vaccines.
truth of those words (CD, Omicron Reinforces). In our current COVID-19 downside scenario in
which new novel coronavirus variants trigger a
Information on the health implications of the protracted period of restrictions and lengthen
Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus have the disruption to global supply chains, world
been scarce, making the economic repercussions GDP growth slows to 2.3% in 2022 and financial
highly unpredictable. At the time of writing, about markets weaken. In this scenario, advanced
30 economies have reported cases of Omicron, economies are particularly hard hit with the
but the number of countries where it is present GDP growth of the United States and eurozone
is likely to be substantially higher. In South Africa, in 2022 being about 2 percentage points below
for instance, it's estimated that Omicron has the current baseline forecasts of 4.5% and 4.2%,
accounted for about 70% of the total COVID-19 respectively. Based on the current relationship
cases in December 2021. Based on this, it seems with lockdown stringency, a downward revision
possible that Omicron may take over from the of that magnitude would be consistent with
Delta variant as the dominant strain globally. restrictions ratcheting up to levels similar to those
Nonetheless, the World Health Organization seen globally from May to September 2021. This
has cautioned that there is not yet sufficient would lower calendar year global growth from
evidence that Omicron is more transmissible. the current 4.5% to 4.2-4.3%. In the nearer term,
The other key uncertainty is the degree to which it is likely that governments will tighten measures
it reduces the efficacy of existing vaccines. While that restrict international travel or make it more
some of those infected have reportedly been inconvenient and expensive, which may help
fully vaccinated, it's too early to judge whether to push down oil prices and thus energy price
34
