Page 6 - 2017 Special Report
P. 6
markets?” In 2016, although 29.9% of respondents reported 2-3 years for construction before producing goods. Given that 2016年转移再投资到其他市场的主要原因，其次是中国市 亡羊补牢，未为晚也。也许今年我们《华南地区经济情
no shift, 13.3% of wholly foreign-owned enterprises, 11.4% of the above-mentioned postponed or reduced reinvestments 场前景的不确定性、中国之外的其他市场吸引力更大以及 况特别报告》的调查结果及《中国营商环境白皮书》的结
joint ventures, and 26.67% of representative offices of foreign would have produced goods for exports in 2016 - and keeping 中国本土竞争激烈导致市场环境不公平等。 论和建议能够真正促使中国中央领导层明白当前形势的紧
enterprises, representing a substantial number of respondents, in mind that more than half of China’s exports are produced 迫性，并及时为中国经济敲响警钟。现在，中国必须清醒
replied that they had shifted some reinvestments to other by foreign invested enterprises, it can be deduced that those 此外，根据今年的《特别报告》，2017年再投资预算 地意识到，投资者对中国的信心及实际再投资额都在逐步
Asian, ex-China destinations. Among the Chinese company investments were shifted to other parts of Asia from China and 同比下滑4.12%，这意味着投资者对中国市场未来一年的 下降。为了避免局面失控，中国必须迅速地、果断地解决
respondents a significant percentage (17.6%) said that they had are now producing exports for those countries. 信心有所下降。 中外企业界所担忧的种种问题。无动于衷只会让中国的经
moved some reinvestments overseas to other Asian destinations. 济停滞不前。
Approximately 30% of respondents cited rising operational costs Another major concern is land. Many foreign invested enterprise 我们发现，50%在华运营的跨国企业在2016年取消了
in China as a major driving factor for diverting reinvestment manufacturing facilities in China were built some 15 years or so 超过2.5亿美元的再投资，但同时增加了低于2.5亿美元的 此致
to other destinations. Other major factors named were the ago. The land that these enterprises occupy in many cases is 再投资项目。同样值得关注的是，与去年相比，2017年对
perceived uncertainty of market prospects in China, more now considered prime for redevelopment into commercial and 华再投资预算在2.5亿美元或以上的跨国企业减少了50%， 敬礼！
attractive opportunities in competing destinations outside of residential real estate. While the central Chinese government 与此同时，低于2.5亿美元预算的再投资却涨了一倍。这种
China and the fierce local competition in China suggesting an has instituted a national law (“三旧改造”) encouraging the 趋势表明华南地区企业高管对当地未来的市场发展信心颇 哈利•赛亚丁博士
uneven playing field. conversion of old factory land into commercial and residential 满，并竭尽所能，持续投资。相反，华西地区的企业高管 华南美国商会 会长
real estate, it has not provided any incentive, any regulation or 则延后高额投资。上述情况令人担忧，我们预测，2016年 美中经济及贸易政策副主席
In addition, the Study showed a 4.12% year-on-year decline in direction on how to support those factories which have been 高额再投资项目的取消及2017年再投资预算的裁减将令中 美国商会亚太地区理事会
reinvestment budgets for 2017, implying an erosion of investor operating on these lands in order for them to resettle or move 国2018年及2019年的出口量走低。
confidence in China for the upcoming year. economically and continue operating within China. Therefore,
many of these factories are moving out of China to other 再投资的下降趋势是从2014年开始的，当时还存在外
We have noticed that in 2016 50% of multinationals with existing nearby countries. 资企业仍然受到“针对”的看法。随后，我们2015年的
operations in China cancelled their reinvestments of over 《特别报告》显示，2014年在华运营的跨国企业有25%
US$250 million or more, while at the same time they doubled Every now and then, we are contacted by a foreign-invested 选择延迟或取消超过2.5亿美元以上的再投资。根据2015
their reinvestments in the lower categories of less than US$250 enterprise telling us that they have been served notices to 年的《特别报告》，华南美国商会会员企业的再投资预算
million. Also for 2017 50% fewer multinationals have budgeted move, either by a local developer or the local government and 下降了9.3%；更糟糕的是，自2015年起，受访企业三年
reinvestments in the US$250 million or more category than last frequently, on very short notice. This is a major ongoing problem 内的预算再投资额下降了16.9%。
year. However, they have at the same time doubled their 2017 which China needs to address immediately or it will face losing
budgets in the reinvestment categories of less than US$250 substantial export revenue for the long term future. 从2016年的出口数字来看，虽然除中国外的亚洲出口
million. This trend suggests that executives on the ground in 额同比增长超过7%，但中国出口仍然疲软，增速为-7%左
South China have a high level of confidence in the future of It is not too late. Perhaps the results of this year’s Special Report 右。再投资扩建工厂往往需要经过两到三年时间的建设之
the South China market and are investing amounts within their on the State of Business in South China, as well as, the conclusions 后才能正式投产。上文所提及的再投资若无延迟或减少，
decision-making ability. Executives at corporate headquarters and recommendations in our White Paper on the Business 这部分再投资应能在2016年建成投产。同时我们应了解，
in the West, however, appear to be deferring large investments Environment in China, could actually help to urgently propel the 中国有过半的出口商品是由外资企业生产的。由此可推
which require their sign-off. We predict that the cancellation of central Chinese leadership towards that badly needed wake-up 断，上述延迟或减少的再投资已经从中国转移到其他亚洲
larger reinvestments in 2016 and reduced reinvestment budgets call. It’s time to realize that there is steady erosion in investor 国家，目前正在由其生产出口商品。
for 2017 will translate into reductions in China’s exports in 2018 confidence and actual reinvestment in China. In order to stop
and 2019. these hemorrhaging, issues which concern both Chinese and 土地是另一个主要问题。中国很多外资企业的厂房设施
foreign businesses need to be swiftly and decisively addressed. 大约是在十五年前建造的。如今，这些工业用地往往被认
The downward trend in reinvestment follows from 2014, when To ignore these issues could lead to China’s economic stagnation. 为是商业和住宅房地产开发的黄金地段。虽然中央政府已
there was perceived “targeting” of foreign-invested enterprises 出台国家法规（“三旧改造”），鼓励改造旧厂房用地，
in China. Our 2015 Special Report subsequently revealed that in With best regards, 使之投入到商业及住宅的房地产开发中，但是关于如何帮
2014 25% of multinationals with existing operations in China 助现有工厂搬迁、如何减少迁移成本并支持工厂在华继续
postponed or cancelled their reinvestments of over US$250 Dr. Harley Seyedin 运营，政府并未提供任何优惠政策、规定或指引。因此，
million or more. The 2015 Study showed a 9.3% reduction in President 很多工厂正在离开中国，迁往其他周边国家。
planned reinvestments by AmCham member companies; more The American Chamber of Commerce in South China
devastatingly, the same Study revealed a 16.9% reduction in Vice Chairman, U.S.- China Trade and Investment Policy 我们不时会收到外资企业的来信，他们抱怨地方开
planned reinvestments for a three-year period from 2015. The Asia Pacific Council of American Chamber of Commerce 发商或地方政府下发通知要求他们在短时间内完成搬
迁。这是非常严重的问题，而现在仍时有发生。若政府
Looking at export numbers for 2016, while total Asian exports 不马上解决这个问题，中国未来将会面临大量的出口收
(ex-China) grew above 7% year on year, China’s exports remained 入流失。
sluggish at around -7%. Most reinvestments in factories require
10 11
no shift, 13.3% of wholly foreign-owned enterprises, 11.4% of the above-mentioned postponed or reduced reinvestments 场前景的不确定性、中国之外的其他市场吸引力更大以及 况特别报告》的调查结果及《中国营商环境白皮书》的结
joint ventures, and 26.67% of representative offices of foreign would have produced goods for exports in 2016 - and keeping 中国本土竞争激烈导致市场环境不公平等。 论和建议能够真正促使中国中央领导层明白当前形势的紧
enterprises, representing a substantial number of respondents, in mind that more than half of China’s exports are produced 迫性，并及时为中国经济敲响警钟。现在，中国必须清醒
replied that they had shifted some reinvestments to other by foreign invested enterprises, it can be deduced that those 此外，根据今年的《特别报告》，2017年再投资预算 地意识到，投资者对中国的信心及实际再投资额都在逐步
Asian, ex-China destinations. Among the Chinese company investments were shifted to other parts of Asia from China and 同比下滑4.12%，这意味着投资者对中国市场未来一年的 下降。为了避免局面失控，中国必须迅速地、果断地解决
respondents a significant percentage (17.6%) said that they had are now producing exports for those countries. 信心有所下降。 中外企业界所担忧的种种问题。无动于衷只会让中国的经
moved some reinvestments overseas to other Asian destinations. 济停滞不前。
Approximately 30% of respondents cited rising operational costs Another major concern is land. Many foreign invested enterprise 我们发现，50%在华运营的跨国企业在2016年取消了
in China as a major driving factor for diverting reinvestment manufacturing facilities in China were built some 15 years or so 超过2.5亿美元的再投资，但同时增加了低于2.5亿美元的 此致
to other destinations. Other major factors named were the ago. The land that these enterprises occupy in many cases is 再投资项目。同样值得关注的是，与去年相比，2017年对
perceived uncertainty of market prospects in China, more now considered prime for redevelopment into commercial and 华再投资预算在2.5亿美元或以上的跨国企业减少了50%， 敬礼！
attractive opportunities in competing destinations outside of residential real estate. While the central Chinese government 与此同时，低于2.5亿美元预算的再投资却涨了一倍。这种
China and the fierce local competition in China suggesting an has instituted a national law (“三旧改造”) encouraging the 趋势表明华南地区企业高管对当地未来的市场发展信心颇 哈利•赛亚丁博士
uneven playing field. conversion of old factory land into commercial and residential 满，并竭尽所能，持续投资。相反，华西地区的企业高管 华南美国商会 会长
real estate, it has not provided any incentive, any regulation or 则延后高额投资。上述情况令人担忧，我们预测，2016年 美中经济及贸易政策副主席
In addition, the Study showed a 4.12% year-on-year decline in direction on how to support those factories which have been 高额再投资项目的取消及2017年再投资预算的裁减将令中 美国商会亚太地区理事会
reinvestment budgets for 2017, implying an erosion of investor operating on these lands in order for them to resettle or move 国2018年及2019年的出口量走低。
confidence in China for the upcoming year. economically and continue operating within China. Therefore,
many of these factories are moving out of China to other 再投资的下降趋势是从2014年开始的，当时还存在外
We have noticed that in 2016 50% of multinationals with existing nearby countries. 资企业仍然受到“针对”的看法。随后，我们2015年的
operations in China cancelled their reinvestments of over 《特别报告》显示，2014年在华运营的跨国企业有25%
US$250 million or more, while at the same time they doubled Every now and then, we are contacted by a foreign-invested 选择延迟或取消超过2.5亿美元以上的再投资。根据2015
their reinvestments in the lower categories of less than US$250 enterprise telling us that they have been served notices to 年的《特别报告》，华南美国商会会员企业的再投资预算
million. Also for 2017 50% fewer multinationals have budgeted move, either by a local developer or the local government and 下降了9.3%；更糟糕的是，自2015年起，受访企业三年
reinvestments in the US$250 million or more category than last frequently, on very short notice. This is a major ongoing problem 内的预算再投资额下降了16.9%。
year. However, they have at the same time doubled their 2017 which China needs to address immediately or it will face losing
budgets in the reinvestment categories of less than US$250 substantial export revenue for the long term future. 从2016年的出口数字来看，虽然除中国外的亚洲出口
million. This trend suggests that executives on the ground in 额同比增长超过7%，但中国出口仍然疲软，增速为-7%左
South China have a high level of confidence in the future of It is not too late. Perhaps the results of this year’s Special Report 右。再投资扩建工厂往往需要经过两到三年时间的建设之
the South China market and are investing amounts within their on the State of Business in South China, as well as, the conclusions 后才能正式投产。上文所提及的再投资若无延迟或减少，
decision-making ability. Executives at corporate headquarters and recommendations in our White Paper on the Business 这部分再投资应能在2016年建成投产。同时我们应了解，
in the West, however, appear to be deferring large investments Environment in China, could actually help to urgently propel the 中国有过半的出口商品是由外资企业生产的。由此可推
which require their sign-off. We predict that the cancellation of central Chinese leadership towards that badly needed wake-up 断，上述延迟或减少的再投资已经从中国转移到其他亚洲
larger reinvestments in 2016 and reduced reinvestment budgets call. It’s time to realize that there is steady erosion in investor 国家，目前正在由其生产出口商品。
for 2017 will translate into reductions in China’s exports in 2018 confidence and actual reinvestment in China. In order to stop
and 2019. these hemorrhaging, issues which concern both Chinese and 土地是另一个主要问题。中国很多外资企业的厂房设施
foreign businesses need to be swiftly and decisively addressed. 大约是在十五年前建造的。如今，这些工业用地往往被认
The downward trend in reinvestment follows from 2014, when To ignore these issues could lead to China’s economic stagnation. 为是商业和住宅房地产开发的黄金地段。虽然中央政府已
there was perceived “targeting” of foreign-invested enterprises 出台国家法规（“三旧改造”），鼓励改造旧厂房用地，
in China. Our 2015 Special Report subsequently revealed that in With best regards, 使之投入到商业及住宅的房地产开发中，但是关于如何帮
2014 25% of multinationals with existing operations in China 助现有工厂搬迁、如何减少迁移成本并支持工厂在华继续
postponed or cancelled their reinvestments of over US$250 Dr. Harley Seyedin 运营，政府并未提供任何优惠政策、规定或指引。因此，
million or more. The 2015 Study showed a 9.3% reduction in President 很多工厂正在离开中国，迁往其他周边国家。
planned reinvestments by AmCham member companies; more The American Chamber of Commerce in South China
devastatingly, the same Study revealed a 16.9% reduction in Vice Chairman, U.S.- China Trade and Investment Policy 我们不时会收到外资企业的来信，他们抱怨地方开
planned reinvestments for a three-year period from 2015. The Asia Pacific Council of American Chamber of Commerce 发商或地方政府下发通知要求他们在短时间内完成搬
迁。这是非常严重的问题，而现在仍时有发生。若政府
Looking at export numbers for 2016, while total Asian exports 不马上解决这个问题，中国未来将会面临大量的出口收
(ex-China) grew above 7% year on year, China’s exports remained 入流失。
sluggish at around -7%. Most reinvestments in factories require
10 11
