Page 8 - THE SOUTH CHINA BUSINESS JOURNAL
P. 8
NA BRIEFING Making Sense of
China’s 2017
Economic
Growth Target
During the annual Two Ses- percent, or higher if possible in The report
sions meetings last weekend, Chi- practice”. This is a modest goal repeatedly referred to
na’s political leaders announced their eco- on the heels of 6.7 percent the need to mitigate financial risks
nomic growth targets for 2017. The affair growth in 2016 – the lowest in that could disrupt sustainable develop-
produced few surprises: the government 26 years. ment, and more emphasis was given to
predictably released an economic and po- ensuring employment rather than high-
litical agenda that stressed the importance While the 6.5 percent figure was widely lighting growth.
of stability and continuity. anticipated, the added “or higher if pos-
sible in practice” provision was not. Nota- The ongoing reform and restructur-
Although the message was short on bold bly, a more literal translation of Li’s Chi- ing of the Chinese economy has been a
new policy announcements, the plan pre- nese-language speech stipulates that the persistent theme for several years. Still,
sented in Premier Li Keqiang’s annual government targets around 6.5 percent posting impressive annual growth num-
Work Report – often likened to the State growth, but in practice “to try to achieve bers remains an important concern for
of the Union in the US – offers clues to- a better result”. economic planners. While robust GDP
wards the direction and restructuring of growth rates add confidence to the Chi-
the world’s second largest economy, as This remark may signal cautious opti- nese economy, the slow pace of market-
well as the obstacles China faces going for- mism that China’s growth could rebound, based reforms has frustrated many in the
ward. or at least a subtle warning to officials not business community.
to be content with moderate growth. Tak-
Given the deliberately crafted nature of en this way, 6.5 percent sounds more like In 2015, the government put forward the
the Work Report, slight changes in the way a baseline than a general approximation. “Two Doubles” project: to double the size
the government presents issues over pre- of its 2010 GDP and per capita income in
vious years can signal shifts in policies and Alternatively, announcing that the both urban and rural areas by 2020. Do-
priorities. While China’s 2017 GDP target government will merely strive towards ing so requires an average of about 6.4-6.5
appears like a logical continuation of re- higher growth rather than commit to it percent growth per year, and failure to
cent growth objectives at first glance, its may be a signal for observers to temper meet this goal would be an embarrassing
careful wording delicately recalibrates ex- their expectations. miscue for the government.
pectations for the economy’s performance
for the coming years. Contextualization of 2017’s Growth Target
Economic Growth Target China’s leadership claims to be prioritiz-
ing long-term economic restructuring
In the Work Report, Li pinned China’s and minimizing financial risks over more
2017 GDP growth target at “around 6.5 superficial short-term growth indicators.
6
China’s 2017
Economic
Growth Target
During the annual Two Ses- percent, or higher if possible in The report
sions meetings last weekend, Chi- practice”. This is a modest goal repeatedly referred to
na’s political leaders announced their eco- on the heels of 6.7 percent the need to mitigate financial risks
nomic growth targets for 2017. The affair growth in 2016 – the lowest in that could disrupt sustainable develop-
produced few surprises: the government 26 years. ment, and more emphasis was given to
predictably released an economic and po- ensuring employment rather than high-
litical agenda that stressed the importance While the 6.5 percent figure was widely lighting growth.
of stability and continuity. anticipated, the added “or higher if pos-
sible in practice” provision was not. Nota- The ongoing reform and restructur-
Although the message was short on bold bly, a more literal translation of Li’s Chi- ing of the Chinese economy has been a
new policy announcements, the plan pre- nese-language speech stipulates that the persistent theme for several years. Still,
sented in Premier Li Keqiang’s annual government targets around 6.5 percent posting impressive annual growth num-
Work Report – often likened to the State growth, but in practice “to try to achieve bers remains an important concern for
of the Union in the US – offers clues to- a better result”. economic planners. While robust GDP
wards the direction and restructuring of growth rates add confidence to the Chi-
the world’s second largest economy, as This remark may signal cautious opti- nese economy, the slow pace of market-
well as the obstacles China faces going for- mism that China’s growth could rebound, based reforms has frustrated many in the
ward. or at least a subtle warning to officials not business community.
to be content with moderate growth. Tak-
Given the deliberately crafted nature of en this way, 6.5 percent sounds more like In 2015, the government put forward the
the Work Report, slight changes in the way a baseline than a general approximation. “Two Doubles” project: to double the size
the government presents issues over pre- of its 2010 GDP and per capita income in
vious years can signal shifts in policies and Alternatively, announcing that the both urban and rural areas by 2020. Do-
priorities. While China’s 2017 GDP target government will merely strive towards ing so requires an average of about 6.4-6.5
appears like a logical continuation of re- higher growth rather than commit to it percent growth per year, and failure to
cent growth objectives at first glance, its may be a signal for observers to temper meet this goal would be an embarrassing
careful wording delicately recalibrates ex- their expectations. miscue for the government.
pectations for the economy’s performance
for the coming years. Contextualization of 2017’s Growth Target
Economic Growth Target China’s leadership claims to be prioritiz-
ing long-term economic restructuring
In the Work Report, Li pinned China’s and minimizing financial risks over more
2017 GDP growth target at “around 6.5 superficial short-term growth indicators.
6
